The Heat is On

Six games remaining. Six games to determine your fate. Six games to earn a playoff spot or fall short. As they, say, nothing comes easy.

A few times since the T-Birds climbed out of the Western Conference cellar and into that eighth playoff position, they've had a chance to put a fork into their nearest competition for that final playoff spot. They've just come up a little short. Back on February 21st they could have essentially ended Wenatchee's chances to stay in the hunt.  The T-Birds were four points up on the Wild. A win and Seattle would have been six points clear of the them in the chase. But Wenatchee came back late in that game to earn a 2-1 overtime win and stay within three points of Seattle.  Two weeks later and they are still just three points back. Seattle just can't seem to shake them.

March 4th at home, the T-Birds had the opportunity to put eight points between themselves and the Kamloops Blazers, but a subpar first period put the T-Birds in a three goal hole they couldn't climb out of and lost the game, 3-2. Instead of being eight points back the Blazers got within four points of the T-Birds. They are now six points back but that win kept them alive.

Even this past weekend, after a big road win in Portland, Seattle had a chance to again erase the Blazers from the chase and put Wenatchee on the verge of elimination, but another sluggish start and the T-Birds fell at home to the Winterhawks, 4-1.

I bring it up only as a reminder that this is a young team and so many of these players have not been in this situation in the WHL before, facing the pressure of needing to win almost every night. They are still developing their killer instinct, that need to follow up a big win with another big effort.  It will come.  Baby steps.

Despite not yet putting the hammer down on the Wild or Blazers, Seattle still controls their own fate.  Right now their magic number to clinch the final playoff spot outright is eight points.The T-Birds currently have 55 points, Wenatchee 52 and Kamloops 49.

With just five regular season games left, the most points Wenatchee can finish with, if they win their final five games, is 62 points. That would mean the T-Birds have to earn eight of 12 points in their final six games to finish ahead of the Wild.  Wenatchee's final five games? One against Kamloops, two versus Prince George and two against Everett. Four of those five, including their next four, are on the road. Only their final game of the season, against Everett, will be at home.  The odds they win out are pretty slim, but you never know.

Kamloops has six games, and a possible 12 points to play for. They do have three against the last-place in-the-conference Kelowna Rockets. They play Wenatchee once as well and have single games against Victoria and Vancouver. Four of their final six are at home. Again, the odds of a team with a .395 winning percentage winning their final six games seems remote but if they did they would finish with 61 points. That would mean the T-Birds would need to earn seven points in their last six games to eliminate the Blazers.

Because they play each other this Wednesday, we know one of the two teams, either Kamloops or Wenatchee, is not going to close out the season by winning all of their remaining games.  One of them is going to drop either two or a single point in that matchup.  So, in reality Seattle's magic number to clinch is either six or seven, depending on who wins and who loses that game Wednesday in Kamloops.

Of course a road win for Seattle Tuesday in Kennewick, the night before Kamloops and Wenatchee square off, would slice two points off the T-Birds magic number. It is very possible the 'Birds go into next weekend's three games in three nights, with a magic number of as few as five points. This is where the T-Birds advantage of controlling their own destiny comes in to play. Take care of business Tuesday night in Kennewick and you've almost forced the other two teams to win out to have a chance.

Of course beating the Americans is easier said than done. they are a tough out.But Seattle is coming off two big road wins in their last two road games. They beat Spokane last Saturday in Spokane, 6-3,and then Friday they went down to Portland and earned a 7-2 win.  It's the kind of road effort they will need Tuesday at the Toyota Center against Tri-City. 

In reality, the playoffs start now.

A few thoughts before I sign off:

Finn Bagley started the season with the T-Birds, stuck around a few weeks, and then was reassigned to the JPHL's Calgary Rockies U18 team. He had 11 goals in 16 games and them and then was recalled to Seattle in Mid-January. Though he has only played in seven games since his return and hasn't registered a point, I like what I have seen from 2008 born (16 year old) forward, in that limited sample. He plays with tenacity. As a result, he has a knack for drawing penalties.  A fifth round pick in the 2023 WHL Draft, he plays bigger than his 5"11, 169 lb frame would suggest. He just has the makings of another solid md-round pick by GM Bil LaForge and his scouting staff.

What to make of the T-Birds recent home-away goal scoring stats? Last three road games, 14 goals. Last seven home games, just 15 goals. To be fair, those home games have been, for the most part, low scoring affairs. Neither Seattle or their opponent are scoring a lot recently at the ShoWare Center. But maybe it is a good thing that four of Seattle's final six games are on the road.

I think most analysts would say that the T-Birds should have been a playoff team last season, based on their roster. Of course injuries clearly derailed that. Those same analyst might would argue that, again based on their very young roster, the T-Birds should miss the playoffs this season.  But here they are, with a chance good chance to be a 2025 playoff team.  I think that's coaching. 

More often than not, the Coach of the Year award in the WHL goes to the coach with the team at the top of the standings, one of the favorites to win the Cup (unless of course, you're the T-Birds coach as neither Steve Konowalchuk or Matt O'Dette have won the award despite both guys guiding the team to two two Western Conference titles and a Chynoweth Cup each. Heck, Dave Lowry won it twice in Victoria and they naver made it to a Conference Final, let alone the WHL Championship series. Makes you wonder why, But I digress). 

A few years back Portland's Mike Johnston was named the Western Conference Coach of the Year with a fifth place team. I think what Matt O'Dette has done with this T-Birds team the second half of the season deserves recognition. It may be his best work yet. I doubt he gets a sniff but he should at least be considered.

His first half will keep Scott Ratzlaff from consideration when it comes to awarding the top goaltender prize, but his second half has been phenomenal. Since the start of the new year he is 12-7-2-0 in 21 starts with a 2.37 GAA and .928 SVS. In those 21 starts he has faced 42 or more shots eight times. His .908 SVS on the season is the real measure of how good he has been in net for the T-Birds. This team isn't close to a playoff spot without him.

After 62 games and six plus months, it comes down to the final ix games to determine your fate. This is why we love hockey.