On to Round Two

Seattle versus Kelowna in the playoffs is becoming a tradition.  This was the ninth time these two teams have faced each other in the postseason since 2001.  The Thunderbirds have now won five of those series, including three in row. In fact, Seattle has ended the Rockets season in three of the last five WHL postseasons.

The series went just five games but the last two went overtime before being decided and the last three games were tied going into the third period.  This was another typical Seattle-Kelowna postseason matchup. It's the second time in their last three postseason meetings that the series winner was scored in overtime by a Seattle player named Matt: Wedman in 2016 and Rempe in 2022.

Where was this series decided? Well, the T-bird top four-point producers from the regular season (Davidson, Svejkovsky, Roulette and Rybinski) produced 31-points in the five games.  Meanwhile, Kelowna's top four regular season point producers (Dach, Cristall, Novak and Kydd) mustered just eight points total in the five games.  

I'm not sure what the T-birds game plan was for controlling Colton Dach, who led Kelowna during the regular season with 79-points (29g. 50a) in 61-games, but it worked. Seattle held Dach, a second-round pick of the Chicago Blackhawks, to zero points. That's right, none. No goals no assists in five games.  Meanwhile, the T-birds leading scorer from the regular season, Jared Davidson had 11 points (3g, 8a).

Seattle's next two best point producers in Round One? A couple of first time draft eligible 17-year-olds in Kevin Korchinski and Jordan Gustafson. Both players had nine points in the series. NHL scouts want to see how these two handle the pressure of postseason play, when the stakes are bigger, and the spotlight shines brighter.  So far, so good for this duo. Gustafson set up the game winning overtime, series clinching goal in Game Five, by stealing the puck from a 20-year-old Rockets defenseman.

Another area that helped decide the series in the T-birds favor?  Goaltending.  Seems strange to say with how well the Rockets Talyn Boyko played in the final two games, but Seattle's Thomas Milic was the more steady, consistent goalie in the series. Just go back to the first two games when Boyko allowed 12 goals against while Milic only surrendered three.  The numbers back it up too. In the series Milic finished with a 1.89 GAA and .923 SVPCT.  Boyko finished with a GAA of 4.68 and his SVPCT was .875.

Playoff hockey in the WHL is built for teams with a strong, deep group of 19-year-old players.  Or at least traditionally it is.  Yet the T-birds have only five 2002 born players on their roster; Ty Bauer, Sam Knazko, Jared Davidson, Matt Rempe and Chase Lacombe. By comparison Seattle's 2017 championship roster featured eight 19-year-olds.  But I believe they are still deep enough to make a deep playoff run. Just know, that as much of a battle Round One against Kelowna was, it only gets tougher from here.  

Of the five teams still remaining in the Western Conference hunt, the rosters for most of them are fairly young. Each team is, of course, carrying the requisite three 20-year-old but as mentioned, Seattle has just five 2002 born players on their roster, Portland has just six, Kamloops has seven. Everett and Vancouver are the older teams. The Silvertips have eight 2002s on their roster. Vancouver is carrying ten, but three of them are goalies.  Kelowna, the team Seattle just eliminated, had just four. So, it looks like talent, more than experience, is going to decide the Western Conference.

For the second time this season, in a game against Kelowna, Seattle challenged a Rockets goal for offside.  They did it in a regular season game in Kelowna back in December and then again in Game Five Friday, issuing a coach's challenge on the Rockets tying goal in the third period. The result each time was the same. The goal was allowed to stand because of inconclusive video evidence. On the challenge in Game Five, it appeared a Rockets player may have entered the offensive zone ahead of the puck.

Because the WHL doesn't deploy as many cameras as the NHL, you are more than likely to get an inconclusive call on review.  Was it a gamble by the T-birds coaching staff? Sure. If they are wrong not only does the goal stand but they are also assessed a bench minor, which would have put the Rockets on the power play.  To be assessed the penalty though, there has to be clear and irrefutable evidence that clearly showed the Rockets were NOT offside.  

Seattle coaches knew the video available probably wasn't enough to overturn the call on the ice, but if it showed anything, it appeared to show a Rockets player entering the zone ahead of the puck. The hope was the video review judge would agree with them.  In the end it was a worthwhile challenge, no harm, no foul.

My T-birds Three Star of Round One.

Third Star: G Thomas Milic. As stated above, he was consistent from the opening faceoff of Game One to the final moments of Game Five.  In the playoffs, that's what you want from your goalie.  His teammates are confident playing in front of him because they know he is reliable.  He didn't face as much rubber as his opposing number, but he still came up with a number of clutch saves.

Second Star: C Matt Rempe. Not only did Rempe score the series clinching overtime goal in Game Five, but he tied for second on the team in goals scored with three, while playing in just four of the five games.  And that's the other story for the New York Rangers prospect. He played much of the series against the Rockets at less than 100-percent.  But it's the playoffs and he gutted it out. Two goals in a series clinching win is stepping up and embracing the moment.

First Star: C/W Jared Davidson.  He led the team in scoring in the regular season and he's leading the team in scoring in the postseason after the opening round.  You want your best players to be your best players in the postseason and Davidson is being just that.  Seattle was pumping a lot of shots on the Rockets net in Game Five, with no results.  They then fell behind.  His tying goal in the second period was a reminder that if you stick to the process, and don't get frustrated, thing will work out.    

The Calm Before the Storm

Sitting here Saturday morning and it's rather strange to have just one game on the final weekend of the regular season and it's already out of the way.  Of course, these final four games the T-birds played were either make up dates for games postponed earlier in the season, or a game pushed back a week from its original date.

Either way it will be nice to have a little time off before the second season arrives, because once the playoffs are here, those postseason games come at you fast and furious. Had these past four games been playoff games, I think we would have seen everyone dressed and in the lineup. Even Ryan Gottried, who missed the last ten games with an injury to his foot.  To get him the extra rest means he'll be that much closer to 100-percent come Game One of the opening round series against Kelowna.

You know those financial services ads that say past performance is not indicative of future earnings, or something to that affect?  Well, that doesn't hold up when you talk about a Seattle vs. Kelowna playoff series. No matter the round, these two teams always seem to go the distance or close to it. You should just expect the series to go the full seven games. The T-birds four game sweep of the Rockets in the 2016 Western Conference Final was the exception not the rule. The next spring, they went six games in a physical, knock 'em down, drag 'em out Conference Final.

Who can forget the year Seattle won the first three games in overtime, only to see Kelowna come back to win the final four?  Then there was the year Seattle won three times on the road but lost all three at home without scoring a goal on home ice. And what about 2008? The T-birds dropped the first two games at home, then won four of the next five games, including two on the road.  

Crazy things happen when these two teams meet in the postseason, so I'm just saying you should expect that again.  

The teams met four times this past regular season.  The T-birds went 3-1-0-0.  From the Rockets perspective, they were 1-2-0-1.  All four games were decided by a single goal.  Seattle won in a shootout, 2-1 in Kent back on December 7th.  A few nights later in Kelowna, the T-birds came from behind in the third for a 5-4 victory.

The two rivals met for a pair of games at the accesso ShoWare Center in the second half of the season.  The Rockets prevailed, 4-3 February 27th.  Two nights later, Seattle scored two goals in the final minute of play to roar back for a 4-3 win of their own.  

The T-birds used both goalies in the regular season series. Thomas Milic was 2-0, while Scott Ratzlaff was 1-1.  In the four games Seattle outshot Kelowna 154-101, but Seattle consistently outshot most of their opponents all season, even when not a full strength due to injuries.  Of the twelve goals the T-birds allowed to Kelowna, Milic surrendered just four.  Both teams were awarded 16-power plays in the four games. the Rockets scored four times, Seattle three. 

What do I take from their four game regular season series?  Nothing, absolutely nothing.  The slate is wiped clean come Friday.

First and foremost, the WHL is a development league.  The main purpose is to develop and prepare players for a future as a professional hockey player.  Seattle is succeeding in that task. Seven players on the roster are already drafted into the NHL. Three of them have already signed an NHL entry level contract.  Three more players are listed by Central Scouting for the 2022 NHL Entry Draft.  

There are more coming.  We've seen Seattle use six APs, or affiliated players, the second half of the season.  Those are players drafted in the last two WHL Prospects Draft but haven't joined the team yet on a fulltime basis. Five of the six have already recorded their first WHL point. Only Hyde Davidson, who played in just one game, the last game of the regular season, did not.  The other five combined for 46 games. They scored six goals added three assists and together finished +9.  They're knocking on the door. They're ready to bust it down.

My T-birds Three Stars for the 2021-22 regular season:

Third Star: D Kevin Korchinski.  He's generating enough buzz now that many draft prognosticators are moving him up their draft lists. In one instance into a top ten position. So, it's not a question of if he'll be drafted, but how high.  Terrific skater who rarely makes the wrong decision with the puck. He has great hockey instincts. 61-assists in 67 games.  Personally, I wish he'd shoot more, but I said the same thing about a guy named Mat Barzal and things seemed to work out okay for him.  And Korchinski is still just 17.  

Second Star: C Henrik Rybinski.  Twice he had his season interrupted by injury. When he's not on the ice it's noticeable. He's your number one center. He's an energy guy, a tone setter. He plays in all situations.  He plays with a near reckless abandon. He also contributes on the stat sheet.  Sixty-five points in just 47-games. His 1.38 points per game average was just off the team pace set by both Lukas Svejkovsky and Jared Davidson at 1.39. had he played the full 68-game schedule he was on pace for 94 points.  

First Star:  C/W Jared Davidson. Davidson is more than just a goal scorer, though he does that very well, leading the team with 42, the most by a T-bird's players in 13-seasons.  His goal total this season is more than double his total from his first three seasons combined (19). But like Rybinski, he is a complete player and plays in all situations. Versatile too, as he can play at center and on the wing. He led the team in goals, points and plus/minus and was second in assists. His game keeps improving, so I would expect even more from him in the future.  He could very well have done enough to put himself in a position to be drafted this summer by an NHL team.  

Two for the Money, Two for the Show

The Seattle Thunderbirds have locked up home ice advantage for their first-round playoff matchup with the Kelowna Rockets. They did it with a 4-1win Sunday over Everett, coupled with a Kelowna loss earlier in the day to the Vancouver Giants. Or maybe they actually locked up home ice earlier in the season?

Quite often head coach Matt O'Dette will talk about the value of two points earned early in the season being just as valuable as two points earned in the final week.  So, let's go back to a couple of games where the T-birds earned a couple of critical wins that now loom large in their securing home ice advantage versus the Rockets.

December 11th, third to last game before the Christmas break, Seattle at Kelowna.  This is the second of back-to-back nights playing up in the British Columbia interior.  The previous night Seattle stunned Kamloops up at the Sandman Centre with a convincing 6-1 victory.  But it was a costly win as the T-birds lost their captain, Tyrel Bauer, to a knee injury in the third period, an injury that would keep him out of the lineup for 33-games.

Seattle is already missing Sawyer Mynio and Leon Okonkwo Prada so are heading into the game in Kelowna with just five defensemen.  To remedy the situation, the T-birds call up affiliated player, 16-year-old, Niko Tsakumis. It will be just his second game in the WHL and first in a month.

The Thunderbirds fall behind, 2-0, after twenty minutes before battling back to take the lead in the second with three goals, including a go-ahead tally from Tsakumis, who scores his first in the WHL. They lead 3-2 after two.

The lead doesn't hold up as the Rockets strike twice in period three to grab a 4-3 advantage with just under seven minutes to play. Down a goal late, missing your captain? Just take the two-game split, get home and heal up your wounded, right?  Except if there is one thing we've learned this season about this T-birds team it's that there's no quit in them.  

Just seventeen seconds after Kelowna took the lead, Kevin Korchinski ties it up and a minute after that Mekai Sanders strikes. Just like that Seattle has comeback to take the lead late. Scott Ratzlaff and the team then shuts down the Rockets over the final five minutes and the T-birds skate away with a 5-4 win and two big road points.  

March 1st, the T-birds are hosting the Rockets at the accesso ShoWare Center. Seattle has dropped three straight games, including 4-3 setback at home to Kelowna two nights earlier.  It's looking like the rematch is going to get Seattle the same result.  Two of the team's leaders, Bauer and Henrik Rybinski are out of the lineup and midway through the third period the Rockets score to break a 2-2 tie. 

As the clock ticks down Kelowna holds their one goal lead.  With under two minutes remaining, O'Dette pulls his goalie for the extra attacker and the strategy pays off when Lukas Svejkovsky scores with 61-seconds left, tying the game at 3-3.

Time to prepare for 3-on-3 hockey. Both teams are ready to take the point and settle this in overtime or a shootout, right?  Not quite.  The T-birds win the ensuing face off and got right back on the attack.  With twelve seconds left in regulation, Sam Knazko pounces on a loose puck in front of the Rockets goal and scores. Not only does Seattle win, 4-3, but by winning in the dying seconds of the third they n get the two points, and they prevent Kelowna from getting even one. 

Those two come-from-behind wins are now the difference in both the season series against Kelowna (The T-birds finished 3-1 in the four games, outpointing the Rockets, 6-3), and in the Western Conference standings.  Had the T-birds not played the full sixty minutes in both those games, they'd be in fifth place staring up at the Rockets and preparing to start the postseason on the road.  If they had just "settled" for a different fate late in those games, they'd be sitting on forty wins, not forty two, 88-points, not 92.  

Points matter, no matter what point in the season you're at.

Notice anything similar in Seattle's three home wins this season against Everett?  Well, the scores are similar. The T-birds won 5-2 back on December 17th, 5-1 January 15th and were 4-1 winners Sunday.  Even in their shootout loss back on October 15th, the T-birds scored five goals.  But the similarity I'm talking about is the Seattle roster.  In those four games, especially in the three wins, Seattle played with a nearly complete and healthy lineup.  

If Seattle is to make a deep playoff run, they'll need that full and healthy lineup and they'll need those kinds of efforts both at home and on the road. 

My T-birds Three Stars for the Weekend:

Third Star: G Thomas Milic.  Milic went 2-0 as he gears up to carry the load in net come playoff time.  In the two games he allowed just three goals, posting a 1.50 GAA and a save percentage of .930.  Seattle's goalies don't face as many shots on average as their opponents, but the T-birds have a penchant for giving up ten bell scoring chances and Milic was their both nights to shut the door. 

Second Star: D Ty Bauer.  Bauer scored his first goal since the night he was injured, back in early December.  It was a big one.  After Spokane crawled back within 3-2 Saturday, the captain unleashed a blast that pushed the T-birds lead back up to 4-2, enroute to a 6-2 win.  Bauer doesn't score a lot but of his five goals, two are game winners and two are insurance goals, like that one against the Chiefs. Then Sunday versus Everett he was the T-birds emotional leader. Did he take a few penalties? Yes, but he didn't back down in a chippy rivalry affair. He helped set a physical tone.

First Star: W Lukas Svejkovsky.  What do you do for an encore after you've just signed your three-year NHL entry level contract? Why you go out and score three goals in two games. Svejkovsky, who signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins earlier in the week, is now on a seven-game point streak, accumulating 15-points in the process (10g, 5a).  He is now 20th in the WHL in scoring with 76 points.  

Healing Powers

I know we are three months past Christmas, but I'd really like to ask Ol' Saint Nick for one last, belated gift: a healthy Thunderbirds team for the playoffs. This team has demonstrated, that even at much less then 100-precent, they can compete with any team in the Western Conference.  The case in point was Saturday down in Portland. Even down four goals, on the road and with key players out, Seattle showed they can come back and play toe-to-toe, if not outplay one of the top teams. It's not an excuse for the loss. The T-birds started that game way too slow. It is a fact though. Put a healthy Gustafson, Ciona and Gottfried in the lineup and the T-birds are a better, deeper team.

Probably shouldn't play the "what if game" but if the T-birds had been at or close to full strength more the second half of the season, I believe they'd be fighting for the top of the conference.  It is what it is but remember, right before the Christmas break, Seattle was neck and neck with Everett for first place in the U.S. Division.  But how many games the second half have the T-birds dressed less then 18-skaters?  How many times have they had not two or three, but six or seven of their best players sitting up in the stands? 

So, the only wish I have right now is for this team to get healthy for the postseason. I don't think home ice is going to matter. Right now, Seattle has more road wins than home wins. I don't think finishing higher in the standings is going to matter. Give me a mostly complete Seattle roster and I like this team's chances in the playoffs. I'm not saying it guarantees a run to the Cup, but it levels the playing field.  Seattle's advantage is their depth, but depth only means something if all the players are healthy and available.

This past weekend the Thunderbirds played about sixty minutes of really good hockey.  The problem was, there were 120 minutes of hockey played this weekend.  Seattle got away with it Friday in their 6-4 win over Tri-City, building a 5-0 lead before too many players abandoned the game plan and they had to hold on at the end. 

Saturday in Portland the T-birds were full marks for most of the second and third period.  The slow start, the sleepy first period, really was the difference in the game.  Maybe you can get away with a less than sixty-minute effort against the Americans, you can't get away with it against Portland.

Here's a link to the altercation in the third period in Portland that led to the Winterhawks game winning power play goal.  This is why you have to stay disciplined.  I know it's hard. You've just been hit along the boards, a very dangerous hit at that. You want to retaliate. You want to stick up for your teammate. 

But in a close game where you've just roared back from a four-goal deficit to tie it, you just can't do that. There was going to be a boarding penalty on Portland. Maybe the first retaliation is okay but then there's a second and Seattle goes from, about to go on the power play, to having to go on the penalty kill. 

https://youtu.be/D8A09NS4J5w

Despite that last penalty on Rybinski, I loved his game Saturday in Portland.  I thought that was the first time in a while we've seen the complete Rybinski. That 200-foot tone setting play, the Energizer Bunny forechecking Rybinski and the crashing the crease with abandon Rybinski. Injuries have impacted his season but when we get that Rybinski on the ice, the rest of the team feeds off it.  

My T-birds Three Stars for the Weekend.

Third Star: W Lukas Svejkovsky.  The reigning WHL Play of the Week stretched his point streak to five games with two goals and two assists in the two games.  41-points now in his 31 games with Seattle and has a +19 rating. 

Second Star: W Conner Roulette.  Roulette finished the weekend with four points (1g, 3a).  He sparked Seattle's comeback in Portland with a nice power play goal.  Over his last three games he has seven points (3g, 4a).  that's the Roulette Seattle will need in the playoffs.

First Star: C Henrik Rybinski.  I think he got shorted an assist down in Portland and should, after review, end up with a three-point game (1g, 2a) and that would give him a four-point weekend.  But as stated above, it's his tone-setting 200-foot game that drives the T-birds engine. A healthy Rybinski is imperative for a long playoff run.