Home is Where the Heart is

The Thunderbirds are halfway through their season longest six game homestand and are 2-0-1-0, earning five of six points.  In fact, the T-Birds are 4-0-2-0 in their last six home games and overall are 6-2-2-0 in ten games so far this season at the accesso ShoWare Center. 

Seattle is set to play eight of their next 12 games on home ice. Currently, they sport a .700 winning percentage at the ShoWare Center.  If they can continue that .700 winning percentage, that would be almost six more wins at home before Christmas, somewhere along the lines of 5-1-2 over those eight games. It would give them the opportunity to go into the break above .500. 

The T-Birds have scored 29 goals at home in their last six home games, or an average about five goals per game in that stretch.  On the other end, Seattle is allowing on average just slightly over two goals against over those same six games.  Shots for are up, shots against are down.  Just about every metric is pointing in the right direction...at home.  

Somehow, some way, the Thunderbirds need to be able to bring that home ice success with them on the road.  As good as their home ice winning percentage is, their road winning percentage of .250 is tied with Swift Current for second worst in the league.  Only Wenatchee struggles more on the road thad do the T-Birds. 

They're going to need to bottle up the home success soon, because coming out of the holiday break, they're going to play seven of eight on the road and those seven roads games will come one after the other. Yep, a seven game road trip and most likely without Braeden Cootes and Radim Mrtka who are most likely to be participating in the World Junior Championships for their respective countries.

That seven game road swing could be the make or break point of the season.

Three Stars for the just concluded week/weekend. The T-Birds played just one game this past weekend, after playing three in five days the previous weekend.

Third Star: D Ashton Cumby. The Chicago Blackhawks prospect has sevnen points on the season and they've all come in his last six games and four of those were picked up in his last four games, including his first goal of the season against the Vancouver Giants. Cumby entered this season with a WHL career plus/minus of -19.  This season he sits at +7.

Second Star: C/W Brock England.  He's still a 16 year old rookie but he doesn't play like one. Fastest T-Bird out on the ice and he uses that speed to create offense.  He registerd six points (2g, 4a) in his first two games since coming back from the U17 Hockey Challenge with a Gold medal. As a result he was named the WHL Rookie of the Week.

First Star: W Antonio Martorana. Marty is off to a terrific start in his thrid full season with the team after injuries slowed down at the start of his 2024-25 campaign.  On the season he is the team's tp point producer with 12 goals and 24 assistst.  Three of his goals are game winners.  He's riding a three game points streak with six points over that span (4g, 2a) and has twelve points (7g,5a) in his last seven games.

Trending in the Right Direction

That was a tough loss Saturday at home against Prince George, especially after the Thunderbirds built a two goal lead with six minutes left in the second period.  There's no solace in saying it was one of the T-Birds better efforts in a contest they lost considering some of their earlier losses have been somewhat lopsided. 

The average margin of defeat for the Seattle this season has been by close to four goals, so losing by one in overtime doesn't seem so bad, especially when you earn a point in the standings. But that's not this team's expectation. They want to win the close ones, especially on home ice and certainly when they have the lead going into the third period.  So rightly, after that loss, point or no point, they were a disappointed group postgame.

For just the second time this season the Thunderbirds held a team without a power play goal.  Doing it against the team that, coming into the game, had the most power play goals in the WHL is no small feat.  That's the good news. The bad news is they had to kill off six Cougars power plays. One of those penalty kills was late in the second and two were in the third period when Seattle is trying to protect their lead.  

In that situation you want to be playing 5-on-5 hockey, or better yet force the opponent to play desperate hockey and draw some penalties and go on the power play yourself. Instead the T-Birds penalties took away their momentum and forced them to defend too much in their own end of the ice, rather than being on the attack. Sure, killing the penalties was great but it also means your top players are spending a lot of energy at the wrong end of the ice at a critical point in the game.

That was the loss. The winFriday over Saskatoon was the best example of not getting frustrated when your work earlier in the game is not being rewarded. In games earlier in the season when that was happening, the T-Brids would start taking short cuts, they'd get off their path and the results were predictable.  Friday, they stayed true to their game plan. They kept up the forecheck. They continued to be direct with the puck, putting lots of shots on goal and jumping on second chance opportunities.

Probably the biggest difference between Friday and Saturday was the T-Birds net front presence. It was there more consistently Friday. The number of rebounds available Saturday, as opposed to Friday, was proably less. Prince George had the better goalie and D-Corps.  But there were chances there against the Cougars. It just meant Seattle had to work a little harder for them.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the Weekend.

Third Star: Grayson Malinoski G (with a slight nod to Marek Sklenicka). Both goalies gave the team a chanc to win. Malinoski kept the game close Friday until the T-Birds broke through in the third period. He's put together two straight solid efforts. After being a tough luck loser in a few of his earlier starts, he's now won two in a row.  Both goalies are young as far as starts and playing time in the WHL but if the T-Birds can't get solid starts from these two most nights, they'll be in games late. By no means are either polished products but they're trending in the right direction.

Second Star: Coster Dunn C. It's been a bit of a slow start for Dunn, yet he still has ten points (4g, 6a) in 13 games.  He hasn't hit his stride but when he starts looking like he did the second half of last season, look out.  He had three assists Friday and could have had a few more.  He is now one point from hitting 100 points for his WHL career. He's at his best when he's winning puck battles that create offense. Some of that popped through this weekend.

First Star: Antonio Martorana W. Three goals and an assist in the two games, including a game winner. He's never going to be the biggest guy on the ice but he's at his best when hunting pucks around the opposing goal, winning pucks among the bigger players. He's in the mold of a Nolan Volcan or a Sami Moilanen in that he plays bigger than he is and has a knack for scoring big goals in big moments. Well over a point per game player thus far this season (1.29) and I think he can keep that up.

Reunited and it Feels so Good

The T-Birds got the gang back together Saturday night in Prince George and it led to a 4-3 win over the Cougars and, thus a split of their two road games at the CN Centre. With Braeden Cootes back from the NHL's Vancouver Canucks and Radim Mrtka's return from the Buffalo Sabres organization, Seattle is as whole as they have been since training camp.

Of course it is not the same lineup as the T-Birds had at the end of last season when they plowed through the second half and into the playoffs.  There is no Nathan Pilling or Scott Ratzlaff, no Brayden Schuurman and no Hayden Pakkala.  It's great to have Cootes and Mrtka back but it still means other players have to step up and support them.

That happened Saturday.  Late in the game the line of Sawyer Mayes, Brayden Holberton and Colton Gerrior willed that game winning goal into the back of the net.  I believe it was the defensive pairing of Vanek Popil and Tai Riley out on the ice as well on the winning goal. The T-Birds can produce when Cootes and Mrtka aren't on the ice.  They just need to do it more consistently because going forward opposing teams are going to  try and match up their top lines against Cootes and Mrtka whenever possible.

Friday night, just as they did on Saturday night, Seattle jumped out to a two-goal lead. Friday the T-Birds couldn't hold it.  Mistakes were made, leading to PG goals and the T-Birds didn't stay on their path, losing 6-3. Saturday night the 'Birds again lost their early lead. They made a few mistakes that cost them a couple of goals.  But unlike Friday, the team stayed on their path. They didn't panic and never fell behind.  They answered the Cougars pushback with pushback of their own and pulled out the win.

One difference from Friday to Saturday? In Friday's game Seattle surrendered 41 shots.  29 of those Prince George shots came over the last two periods, including 17 in the final period of play.  Saturday the T-Birds limited the Cougars to just 22 shots the entire game. Only five of those PG shots came in the third period.  Call it the Mrtka affect. With the big D-man logging a lot of minutes, Seattle was better at blocking shots and getting the puck out of the D-zone.  

Don't discount the play of goalie Grayson Malinoski who picked up his first win of the season.  He may have only been called upon to make 19 saves but he made key saves at big moments in the game.  He's faced a lot of rubber early on this season and suffered some tough luck losses.  It was nice to see him rewarded Saturday.

The Thunderbirds penalty kill is still a work in progress. They've surrendered at least one power play goal in all but one game so far this season. But maybe, just maybe, a bit of credit goes to the Prince George power play. They're red hot right now. They're just not doing this to Seattle.  That being said, the T-Birds know they are going to take penalties, so a strong PK is essential. Some of the penalties they are taking the coaches will accept. It's the avoidable ones that are hurting Seattle right now and they know they have to clean those up.

The T-Birds power play is starting to come to life.  Friday they were just off as they hit at least three posts with the man advantage. Saturday they misfired at an open cage early on a first period power play but came right back and scored moments later.  With Mrtka and Cootes back, the power play should improve.

If I had said back on September 29th that the T-Birds would be 5-7 through the first 12 games using a lineup in most of the those games that was missing two NHL first rounders would you accept that? Don't forget Simon Lovsin missed five of those games too.  I think Seatle is in a good place as we head toward November.  

Seattle needs consistency in effort. Saturday's strong showing has to carry over to this weekend's two games.  The T-Birds have yet to win back-to-back games.  Let's see if they can accomplish that at home Friday when they host the Saskatoon Blades.

My T-Birds Three Stars for the just concluded weekend:

Third Star: D Radim Mrtka. he played in just one of the two games but his presence in the lineup was felt.  He eats up big minutes and plays a complete 200 foot game. As mentioned above, his return will enhance the team's first power play unit, which in turn, should make the second power play unit more effective.  99-percent of the time, he's going to make the right play with the puck.

Second Star: C  Brock England.  A goal and an assist in the loss Friday.  He creates offense seemingly out of nothing with his speed.  He's not just a one way player though.  He's willing to go into board battles and win pucks and his 200 foot game is deceptively good.  He's only 16 and still maturing physically so he won't be perfect but his hockey IQ is tremendous.

First Star:  C Braeden Cootes.  He's a leader who wants to lead with his play on the ice.  He's never satisfied.  I'm guessing he was a little frustrated with the missed power play chances Friday but he kept with it and finally broke through Saturday.  His pass on the 2-on-1 with Brendan Rudolph in the first period of the second game was a thing of beauty. He put the puck through the eye of the needle right on to Rudy's stick. His goal late in the second period of the same game was an NHL caliber shot against arguably the best goalie  in the WHL.

We've Only Just Begun

 It's early. Very early. We're not yet ten games into the season. There's lots of hockey to be played still.  And through eight games I'm not sure what this version of the T-Birds is going to be.

We've seen stretches of good play but, we've also seen some hockey that's been, how will we say, not up to par.  The quest is to bring the level of good play up and bring the stretches of poor play down. Somewhere between that is T-Birds hockey.

Reality can be two things here. The Thunderbirds have been playing with less than a full deck. For much of the first eight games no Cootes, no Mrtka and no Cumby.  They've dealt with some self inflicted wounds with suspensions to Hartmann and Lovsin. The other reality is, that is life in the WHL.  Your stars may just not return. It's a possibility they stick at a higher level, afterall, that is what you are grooming them for. Maybe it's just for a few games as in the case of Cootes. Maybe it is for much longer as appears to be the case with Mrtka. Maybe they come back, maybe they don't. You have to play the hand your dealt. 

Matt O'Dette said since day one of the season that you can't wait for players to come back, because there is no quarentee they will. The players who are here have to step up. In that regard it has been an inconsistent performance by those players.

Now that Cootes and Cumby have returned, the T-Birds are fairly whole.  It's not out of the possibility that Mrtka stays the season in the AHL. If you're waiting for him to come walking through the door, you're  not focused on your job.  Now, I don't think that's the case. Rather, Seattle has some young defenseman seeing significant minutes in the WHL for the first time. It's an adjustment. It takes time.

Seattle has had a travel heavy first month of the season.  By the time we get to November, the T-Birds will be done with the vast majority of their road games in British Columbia. After two early games there, they don't return to Kamloops again until early March. By the end of next week, they'll have put Prince George in the rearview mirror.  By the end of November they'll be through with road trips to Penticton and Victoria.  What's left after that beside that March foray to Kamloops? Three games in February. One more in Kelowna and two short jaunts up I-5 to Langley to face the Vancouver Giants.

Yes, they have their yearly trip out to the east, a five game road trip to Alberta in early January,. But everything else is "local", that is, road trips within the U.S. Division.  In December, the fartherst they travel is one trip to Kennewick. Outside of the trip east, the longest road trip of January is Wenatchee. In February it's that last Kelowna road game while in March it's the aforemention drive up to Kamloops.  

So for Seattle, it's all about getting through this next month and a half. It should help that ten of the next 15 games are on home ice. They've just about survived this rough travel patch.  They have Cootes and Cumby back in the fold.  Now, it's time to got to work.

Watching Tai Riley play the point on the power play, and seeing him get a lot of his shot attempts blocked, was reminding me of something. I've seen that before.  Then it hit me.  That was Shea Theodore who as a 16 year old went through the same thing. But the coaches kept tossing Theo out there and eventually, the shots started getting through and he became a lethal power play weapon.  There was a little bit of that with Kevin Korchinski too. I'm not saying that is what Riley will become but the more opportunities he gets, the better he will become.  I really think at some point it will start clicking for him. The coaches wouldn't continue to put him in that spot if they didn't believe in him.

Too many avoidable penalties.  Under Matt O'Dette the Thunderbirds have always been a solid penalty killing team, but if you're shorthanded six times per game, eventually the opposition is likely to find the back of the net and the T-Birds have now allowed at least one power play goal against in every game this season. There are penalties the coaches are willing to accept but the avoidable stick infractions, the hooks, the slashes, the trips, are the ones hurting the T-Birds. Just an area that needs to be, and can be cleaned up. O'Dette said that was a point of emphasis at practice all week.

As always, defensive zone play isn't always about how your defensemen play inside your blueline or the saves your goalies make.  Defense is a team concept.  Forwards coming back on the back check is integral.  Better yet, spend less time in your own end.  That means winning races to the puck in the O zone. It's winning board battles and having clean offensive zone entries. All that should improve with the return of Cootes but it has to be more than one player committed to that concept.

The two-Headed Monster

At the Major Junior level of hockey, there are two objectives: win championships, such as a Chynoweth Cup or Memorial Cup (heck, why not both) and to develop players for the pro level, preferably, the NHL.

Over the last decade, the Thunderbids have been in four WHL Championship series and won two Chynoweth Cups. They've certainly hit the first objective. Meanhile, since 2010 the T-Birds have had, I believe, some 25 players drafted by NHL teams.  Another half dozen who weren't drafted eventually signed pro contracts. Many of those 30-plus have reached the NHL level. I think you can put a check mark behind objective number two.

The Thunderbirds have found their greatest success reaching both objectives in the the last six years thanks to the LaForge-O'Dette partnership. It almost sounds like I'm talking about a law firm, but of course I'm speaking of General Manager Bil LaForge and Head Coach Matt O'Dette.

Matt O'Dette took the reins as Thunderbirds head coach in the summer of 2017.  Seattle was coming off their first ever WHL title.  O'Dette was promoted from assistant coach to head coach when his predeccesor, Steve Konowalchuk, left for the NHL.

Bil LaForge came on board the following summer. Long time GM Russ Farwell had moved "upstairs" taking on the position of Vice President of Hockey Operations and  the T-Birds landed on LaForge, who had been the head scout for Everett, as his replacement.

Often when a new GM comes on board, one way they put their stamp on the organization is to bring in a new head coach. Instead LaForge's first move was to give O'Dette a ringing endorsement. The rest as they say, is history. Together the partnership of LaForge and O'Dette, in the two key hockey operations positions on the team, has produced nothing but positive results.

In six years working together this tandem has brought to the T-Birds two Western Conference titles, a U.S. Division banner, two appearances in the league championship series, one Chynoweth Cup and a berth in the championship game of the 2023 Memorial Cup.

But it doesn't stop there. In those six years 22 players who have played under their regime, heard their names called at an NHL draft.  There are hundreds of draft eligible players from all over North America and Europe who are hoping to be selected on draft day every summer. To have just one of your player's names called is a statistical longhost. To average almost four players per draft over a six year time frame is astronomical. But that's what Team LaForge-O'Dette has done.

But they don't do it alone. As they say, it takes teamwork to make the dream work.  To get those players on the podium on draft day mean hiring the right scouts. It means bringing on board the right assistant coaches. It means having the right people in place to help with player development. And LaForge and O'Dette have done that.

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Back at the 2022 WHL Prospects Draft, the T-Birds were set to select 15th in the first round but as the top nine picks came off the board, LaForge and his team of scouts saw one player still available. A player they had given a top five grade. So LaForge made a phone call and sent that 15th overall pick and a third round pick to Prince Albert to move up to the tenth spot in the draft.  They used that #10 pick on Braeden Cootes. The same Braeden Cootes who just got drafted 15th overall in the 2025 NHL Draft by the Vancouver Giants. LaForge and his team know what they're doing.

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Last summer, with the 11th overall pick, Seattle chose Czechian Matej Pekar in the first round of the CHL Import Draft. The T-Birds still had a pick in Round Two, 71st overall. They went back to Czechia and took a flyer on Radim Mrtka, even though it looked like he would stay in Czechia to play professionally in the top men's league.  When rumors started to float around in October that Mrtka could be headed to Seattle I asked LaForge about taking a gamble with that second pick.  He had done it with Sam Knazko and he had done it with Tim Stutzle. No harm in swinging for the fences. The one thing that stuck with me was he said Russ Farwell was the one who went to bat for picking Mrtka.  Great case of a GM listening to those around him, especially someone who has been doing this for a long time. Mrtka was just selected 9th overall by Buffalo in the NHL Draft. 

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In his playing days, Matt O'Dette was a defenseman.  He played for the Kitchener Rangers in the OHL and was drafted in the 7th round of 1994 NHL Draft by the Florida Panthers. He played parts of 14 seasons as a d-man professionally.  Now he has become a developer of D-men. As a T-Birds assistant coach he helped guide both Shea Theodore and Ethan Bear into becoming WHL Defenseman of the Year winners. Had Kevin Korchinski come back for his 19 year old season, rather than sticking in the NHL, he may have had a third earn the honor. In his 12 years in the T-Birds organization, first as an assistant coach and now as head coach, a dozen T-Birds defenseman have either been drafted (10) by the NHL or signed pro contracts. The latest two are Mrtka and Ashton Cumby.

The T-Birds acquired Cumby from the Wenatchee Wild in January of 2024 in exchange for a 6th round pick.  Seattle and O'Dette helped turn him into a prospect of the Chicago Blackhawks, who chose him in the 6th round (162nd overall) of the 2025 NHL Draft. 

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I'm not too surprised Cumby got drafted.  At the end of the season he was mulling over five or six offers from NHL team to attend their training camp if not selected in the draft. He was a wanted man.

Another Season for the Books

 

What constitutes a successful season? Someone would argue that success goes only to the team that wins the Cup. Everyone else is in second place. You  know, to the victor goes the spoils.  That's a bit of a myopic view, especially at this level of hockey. The roster turnover is so rapid at this level that it is quite impossible to compete for, let alone win, a championship every season.

So, success looks different for every team depending on where they are in their "championship window". If the T-Birds hadn't won the Chynoweth Cup in 2023, I think a lot of fans would say that team came up short of a successful season.  The expectations for that team were to win a league title. But they met their expected goal, thus the season is deemed a rousing success.

The year prior, 2022, I don't think winning the WHL title was expected. They weren't the favorite that season.  They were considered a contender though, then upset a couple of higher seeded teams in the postseason and they made it to the league championship series before losing in six games to the favored Edmonton Oil Kings. Still, the T-Birds finished that season with the seventh best record in the league and made it within two wins of taking the Cup. I think, as a result of exceeding expectations, that too was a season of success.

So where does this season fall on the "successful season" scale? Is it a success because of how the team started and how they finished the regular season?  It was an unbelievable second half, but we also can't discount the first half. Or does the second half make up for the first half? I think the answer lies in between.  The T-Birds used the first half to find out who they were, to figure out what parts of the roster were working and where changes, whether through addition or subtraction, needed to be made. It's like fiddling around in the kitchen with a cake recipe until you get the ingredients right.

The T-Birds were 11-19-2-1 heading into the Christmas break.  They went into that break, having dropped two in a row and five of seven.  They promptly came out of the break and lost their first three games. They began 2025 with a record of 11-22-2-1, eleven games below the break-even mark after a 6-4 loss at home New Year's Eve. They then lost three of their first four games in the new year. 12-25-2-1 at the WHL trade deadline on January 9th.  A season low point of thirteen games below .500. with just 28 games left.  Doubtful anyone was putting the season into the "success" category at that point.

But the season isn't 40 games long, It's 68.  The cake isn't done baking until the oven timer goes off, and even then, you have to check it to make sure it is baked all the way through. The T-Birds finished the season by going 18-8-1-1, a winning percentage of .642 over that 28 game stretch.  Only six of those games were against teams with a record below .500. And even with some veteran additions to the roster for the second half push, they still accomplished that second half success with one of the youngest rosters in the WHL. They then pushed the team with the WHL’s best regular season record to six games in round one, including a double overtime thriller, before bowing out.

I guess the best way to describe the season is to say while overall, finishing with a sub .500 record usually doesn’t lend one to call the campaign an overall success, there were many successes along the way that left everyone with a good feeling about the just concluded hockey year.

A young team got a year of experience. They took their lumps but after bumping into a few walls, they found their path.  They learned to battle for and achieve something, a playoff spot. And they got a lesson in playing playoff hockey and passed that test. Maybe it wasn’t an A on that test, maybe just a solid B, but it should be enough for them to graduate to the next level.

There will be questions to answer before next season. Who will be the three 20 year olds? Is the organization satisfied going into next season with just two 19 year olds? Who will pick up the scoring slack created by the departure of Pilling? And who steps into the leadership vacuum now that Schuurman and Pakkala have moved on? How many of the seven signed 2009s will they carry on the roster next season, outside of Brock England? These questions will all be answered in due course, but let’s spend some time enjoying the successes that came from the 2024-25 season.

All Gas no Brakes

The Seattle Thunderbirds left it all out on the ice in Game Six. If you're going to go out, empty the tank, and they did. I'm sure it's a  tough pill to swallow though.  They did everything but score. Every bounce or deflection turned the puck right when they need it to go left, often inches away from forcing Game Seven. As the eight seed they didn't wilt under the pressure.  They played their opponent, the one seed, toe to toe but came up short. There is no shame in that. No one to lay blame on. That's just playoff hockey. There is always a winner and there is always a loser.

Was there a key point in the series where the balance may have tipped (no pun intended) against them? There are always moments in every game where, when you dissect it afterwards, you says to yourself "if only". Of course, if you spend too much time going over every moment with a fine tooth comb, you'll drive yourself crazy.  

Some might point to the final four minutes of the first period of Game Five. Seattle took four minor penalties and Everett cashed in with three power play goals.  At the time Seattle was winning and driving the play. It definitely changed the complexion of that game, but I'm not sure about the series.

To me, I would go back to the second period of Game Four. Seattle had started the series by getting the road split in Games One and Two. In fact they came close to winning both games in Everett that weekend before the 'Tips pulled out an overtime win in the second game. Still, off that road split the T-Bird came home and came from behind for a 6-3 win in Game Three. Old Mo was certainly on their side.

Game Four started the way Seattle needed it to start. They got the lead. They were playing much as they had played in the first three games. They had bought in and were playing a playoff brand of hockey. They were being physical and wearing down their opponent. They had to have left the ice after that first period of Game Four feeling good about their game, even if it was just a one goal lead. 

But I think Everett realized their season was at stake. The team that finished with the best record in the regular season was in danger of falling behind in the series, three games to one. They probably knew if they ended up in such a hole, the chances of climbing out were bleak.

Give the Silvertips credit. Their desperation mode kicked in and they dominated period two.  The young T-Birds didn't have the proper response and before you could blink Seattle was on their heels and couldn't get back on their toes. Seattle lost that game, 6-2, and I'm not sure if they completely got back to the way they had played the first three games, the rest of the series.  There were moments and definitley chances. Yes, the end of the first period of Game Five felt like falling off a cliff, but I think the second period of Game Four is where the complexion of the series changed. Before that period I thought Seattle was in control. Those twenty minutes got Everett back in it. When you have your opponent down on the mat, don't let them back up.

Does getting six games of playoff experience really push the needle for the young Thunderbirds going into next season? I think it does and you only have to look at the play of two rookie defenseman in the series to see it matters.  Both Tai Riley and Vanek Popil took huge steps in their hockey maturation versus Everett. 

Has Scott Ratzlaff played his last game as a T-Birds? It sure seems that way.  But Seattle has found a way to put a quality player in the crease. Whether through draft or trade, they've had solid goaltending for a long stretch.  Trust the process.  

Seattle doesn't get to the postseason this year without their three 20 year olds.  I really enjoyed Nathan Pilling embracing being a T-Bird since he came over after Christmas in December of 2023. I know he's made an NCAA commitment and if that's where he ends up next season he'll thrive,  but I've got to believe his heart wants a pro contract. 

The T-Birds don't turn their season around without the second half additions of Hayden Pakkala and Brayden Schuurman. A young team needed some veteran guidance and those two gave them that.

This series reminded me a bit of the 2013 first round playoff series against Kelowna. Seattle was a seven seed, Kelowna the two seed.  The Rockets had 28 more wins and 50 more points during the regular season than the T-Birds that year.  Seattle won the first three games in overtime before the Rockets came back to win the final four, but it took overtime in the final two games to do it. But Seattle wore down the Rockets in that series. Kelowna went into round two a beat up team and got swept by Kamloops. It will be interesting to see how healthy Everett will be in round two against Portland.

We Have a Series

I have no idea how long this first round series between the Thunderbird and Everett will go.  Could it be over as soon as Game 5 next Saturday? Yes. Could it last until a Game 7 next Tuesday? Definitley.  But based on the first two games, it is clear that whoever wins it, is going to have to earn it. And after two games, there is no clear cut favorite. It's now a  best of five and it is going to be a dogfight to the end.  

Should there be a clear frontrunner? Probably, just based on the regular season. The Silvertips were 18 wins and 39 points better in the standings during the regular season.  The 'Tips won the eight game regular season series 6-2.  Everett is the number one seed, not just in the Western Conference, but in the entire WHL. No one in the league had a better regular season record than they did.  Of the sixteen teams that qualified for the 2025 WHL postseason, the Thunderbirds are 16th. The 'Tips finished with a plus 99 goal differential. Seattle? Minus 45. 

On paper most prognosticators would look at that and predict a cakewalk to the second round for Everett, but as the saying goes, games aren't won on paper. Still, I was cautious heading into the weekend. Seattle certainly turned around their season with their terrific second half that saw them climb out of the Western Conference cellar into that final playoff spot. But would this young team understand the that the playoffs are a different animal conpared the regular season, and that, as well as they played over the last three months, they would need to bring their game to another level in the postseason?

After two games, that question has been answered with an emphatic yes. Win or lose, they are going to do it playing playoff level hockey.They're not going to be perfect and they'll make mistakes along the way but the entire roster has bought in to the postseaon mindset. It's 25 players with a singular focus. To a man, they understand the gravity of each game, each period, every shift. As a result they have put themselves in a position where they are a bounce, a deflection, a rebound away from being up 2-0.  The lesson learned isn't how close they came to winning the first two games. The lesson learned, especially by the younger players, is they know they can win if they bring that level of compete from the first two games into the rest of the series.

And how did they get to that point?  The simple answer, coaching.  More specifically, Matt O'Dette. This isn't his first rodeo. He knows how to prepare a team for the playoffs.  His track record speaks for itself, whether as a head coach or an assistant coach. He has a formula for postseason success. Even in past playoff series where his team has lost, they have always played at a higher level then the regular season. Whether his team is a one seed or an eight seed, this team is going to play the Matt O'Dette way. It's no surprise that in his twelve seasons with the organization, the T-Birds have enjoyed their best and longest sustained success. As an assistant he learned lessons from his predecessor, Steve Konowalchuk, and since taking over as head coach he has refined those lessons and added his own touch to the process.  You may beat his team, but you're not going to outprepare him. 

And part of that coaching success is choosing the right assistants, guys he can work with as a unified coaching group. He's had five different assistants in his tenure as head coach and the beat still goes on with his current assistants Carter Cochrane and Taylor Makin.  He knows what he wants from his players and he knows how to get the most out of them, especially in the playoffs, and the same can be said of his assistant coaches. As I said above, I had trepitations heading into this series, wondering which T-Birds team was going to show up. That was my mistake. I should have known better with O'Dette at the helm.

A few thoughts before I sign off. I still marvel at that December 27th trade GM Bil LaForge made with Lethbridge, sending the rights to Jordan Gustafson to the Hurricanes. He got some draft capital (two 3rds, two 5ths) back but the most tangible return from that deal? The direct acquistion of Hayden Pakkala and the indirect acquistion of Brayen Schuurman (used one of those 3rd round picks to get Schuurman from Moose Jaw).  

That one move played a big part in turning the T-Birds season around and put them in a position to compete in this first round series. We all think the trade of Sawyer Mynio to Calgary for a couple of firsts, two fourths and Sawyer Mayes, was the whopper trade LaForge made this winter, but the December 27th deal was sneaky good.

Brock England isn't going to be an impact player for T-Birds someday. He already is.  The 15 year old (won't turn 16 until August 22nd) was inserted into the lineup at the start of these playoffs and he's leaving his mark. You notice him when he's on the ice because he plays the right way.  For such a young player, he already has a high hockey IQ. 

Through two playoff games he has one big assist, drew a penalty that led to a power play goal and is plus one. There are two 15 year olds playing in this series. One is Everett's exceptional status defenseman, Landon Dupont, the first overall selection in the 2024 WHL Draft. He's living up to the expectations put on him.  The other is England, taken 10th overall in that draft by Seattle. He too is standing out for all the right reasons.

Yes, Scott Ratzlaff has been terrific in the first two games of this series, credited with 89 saves. The shot keepers have Everett with 94 shots in those two games. But I'd argue that those are more like shots at goal than shots on goal, so the number is probaly less than that.  Not every puck a goalie stops is a shot on goal. Often a goaltender will stop a shot going wide, so it doesn't carom off the end board back out in front of the goal. They'll freeze pucks on the side of the net to alleviate pressure and slow the game down. 

It's not the number of saves Ratzlaff is making that is significant. It is his ability to make saves on the high quality chances. It's him knowing when to freeze a puck that is in close proximity of the net and when to steer a puck to the corners. It's a little like a chess game and a good goalie knows when to make the right move. Ratzlaff, more often than not, is making the right moves.

Hyde Davidson was a member of the 2023 T-Birds championship. But at age 16 he was the team's seventh defenseman and only played in two playoff games, both in the first round that year agaisnt Kelowna.  But I think it is clear he paid attention that spring to how those older d-men prepared and played in that postseason run because he has been a solid, if understated, presence on the back end for the T-Birds through the first two games against Everett.  

The Heat is On

Six games remaining. Six games to determine your fate. Six games to earn a playoff spot or fall short. As they, say, nothing comes easy.

A few times since the T-Birds climbed out of the Western Conference cellar and into that eighth playoff position, they've had a chance to put a fork into their nearest competition for that final playoff spot. They've just come up a little short. Back on February 21st they could have essentially ended Wenatchee's chances to stay in the hunt.  The T-Birds were four points up on the Wild. A win and Seattle would have been six points clear of the them in the chase. But Wenatchee came back late in that game to earn a 2-1 overtime win and stay within three points of Seattle.  Two weeks later and they are still just three points back. Seattle just can't seem to shake them.

March 4th at home, the T-Birds had the opportunity to put eight points between themselves and the Kamloops Blazers, but a subpar first period put the T-Birds in a three goal hole they couldn't climb out of and lost the game, 3-2. Instead of being eight points back the Blazers got within four points of the T-Birds. They are now six points back but that win kept them alive.

Even this past weekend, after a big road win in Portland, Seattle had a chance to again erase the Blazers from the chase and put Wenatchee on the verge of elimination, but another sluggish start and the T-Birds fell at home to the Winterhawks, 4-1.

I bring it up only as a reminder that this is a young team and so many of these players have not been in this situation in the WHL before, facing the pressure of needing to win almost every night. They are still developing their killer instinct, that need to follow up a big win with another big effort.  It will come.  Baby steps.

Despite not yet putting the hammer down on the Wild or Blazers, Seattle still controls their own fate.  Right now their magic number to clinch the final playoff spot outright is eight points.The T-Birds currently have 55 points, Wenatchee 52 and Kamloops 49.

With just five regular season games left, the most points Wenatchee can finish with, if they win their final five games, is 62 points. That would mean the T-Birds have to earn eight of 12 points in their final six games to finish ahead of the Wild.  Wenatchee's final five games? One against Kamloops, two versus Prince George and two against Everett. Four of those five, including their next four, are on the road. Only their final game of the season, against Everett, will be at home.  The odds they win out are pretty slim, but you never know.

Kamloops has six games, and a possible 12 points to play for. They do have three against the last-place in-the-conference Kelowna Rockets. They play Wenatchee once as well and have single games against Victoria and Vancouver. Four of their final six are at home. Again, the odds of a team with a .395 winning percentage winning their final six games seems remote but if they did they would finish with 61 points. That would mean the T-Birds would need to earn seven points in their last six games to eliminate the Blazers.

Because they play each other this Wednesday, we know one of the two teams, either Kamloops or Wenatchee, is not going to close out the season by winning all of their remaining games.  One of them is going to drop either two or a single point in that matchup.  So, in reality Seattle's magic number to clinch is either six or seven, depending on who wins and who loses that game Wednesday in Kamloops.

Of course a road win for Seattle Tuesday in Kennewick, the night before Kamloops and Wenatchee square off, would slice two points off the T-Birds magic number. It is very possible the 'Birds go into next weekend's three games in three nights, with a magic number of as few as five points. This is where the T-Birds advantage of controlling their own destiny comes in to play. Take care of business Tuesday night in Kennewick and you've almost forced the other two teams to win out to have a chance.

Of course beating the Americans is easier said than done. they are a tough out.But Seattle is coming off two big road wins in their last two road games. They beat Spokane last Saturday in Spokane, 6-3,and then Friday they went down to Portland and earned a 7-2 win.  It's the kind of road effort they will need Tuesday at the Toyota Center against Tri-City. 

In reality, the playoffs start now.

A few thoughts before I sign off:

Finn Bagley started the season with the T-Birds, stuck around a few weeks, and then was reassigned to the JPHL's Calgary Rockies U18 team. He had 11 goals in 16 games and them and then was recalled to Seattle in Mid-January. Though he has only played in seven games since his return and hasn't registered a point, I like what I have seen from 2008 born (16 year old) forward, in that limited sample. He plays with tenacity. As a result, he has a knack for drawing penalties.  A fifth round pick in the 2023 WHL Draft, he plays bigger than his 5"11, 169 lb frame would suggest. He just has the makings of another solid md-round pick by GM Bil LaForge and his scouting staff.

What to make of the T-Birds recent home-away goal scoring stats? Last three road games, 14 goals. Last seven home games, just 15 goals. To be fair, those home games have been, for the most part, low scoring affairs. Neither Seattle or their opponent are scoring a lot recently at the ShoWare Center. But maybe it is a good thing that four of Seattle's final six games are on the road.

I think most analysts would say that the T-Birds should have been a playoff team last season, based on their roster. Of course injuries clearly derailed that. Those same analyst might would argue that, again based on their very young roster, the T-Birds should miss the playoffs this season.  But here they are, with a chance good chance to be a 2025 playoff team.  I think that's coaching. 

More often than not, the Coach of the Year award in the WHL goes to the coach with the team at the top of the standings, one of the favorites to win the Cup (unless of course, you're the T-Birds coach as neither Steve Konowalchuk or Matt O'Dette have won the award despite both guys guiding the team to two two Western Conference titles and a Chynoweth Cup each. Heck, Dave Lowry won it twice in Victoria and they naver made it to a Conference Final, let alone the WHL Championship series. Makes you wonder why, But I digress). 

A few years back Portland's Mike Johnston was named the Western Conference Coach of the Year with a fifth place team. I think what Matt O'Dette has done with this T-Birds team the second half of the season deserves recognition. It may be his best work yet. I doubt he gets a sniff but he should at least be considered.

His first half will keep Scott Ratzlaff from consideration when it comes to awarding the top goaltender prize, but his second half has been phenomenal. Since the start of the new year he is 12-7-2-0 in 21 starts with a 2.37 GAA and .928 SVS. In those 21 starts he has faced 42 or more shots eight times. His .908 SVS on the season is the real measure of how good he has been in net for the T-Birds. This team isn't close to a playoff spot without him.

After 62 games and six plus months, it comes down to the final ix games to determine your fate. This is why we love hockey.

How Far We've Come

It's been a good 2025 thus far for the Seattle Thunderbirds. With their win Saturday at home over the Everett Silvertips, the T-Birds record since January 1st is 12-7-1-0. Only five of the T-Birds 20 games in the new year have been against a team with a losing record; three against Kelowna and two versus Wenatchee. Seattle went 3-1-1-0 in those five games, meaning the Thunderbirds record in 15 games against teams with winning records in the new year is a very solid 9-6. It includes two wins against the team with the best record in the WHL, Everett, a win agaisnt the team with the top record in the Eastern Conference, Medicine Hat, as well as a win versus B.C. Division leader Victoria.

When the calendar page turned from 2024 to 2025, the T-Birds sat in 11th place in the eleven team Western Conference.  Their 25 points had them five points behind Wenatchee for 10th place and seven points back of both Kelowna and Kamloops, who were tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west with 32 points each. They were coming off a month of December in which they had gone just 2-8-0-0 and ended the month on a five game losing streak.

Three games into 2025 The T-Birds went 1-2 while Kelowna was going 2-1 through their first three games, meaning Seattle was now nine points back of the Rockets for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference ten days into the new year. In fact, the Thunderbirds came off the Christmas break by losing five of their first six games to start the second half of the season, and had just traded away one of their best players, Sawyer Mynio.

Seven games into January and the 'Birds were 3-4. Respectable at nearly .500, but still staring up at a seven point deficit in the chase for that final Western Conference playoff spot. They still needed to climb over three teams in the standings. You can give up, or you can chose to get into the fight. Seattle chose to join the battle.

In reality, it wasn't until January 21st, one month ago, that the T-Birds began their climb out of the cellar. With their 7-1 win over the Vancouver Giants on January 21st, Seattle would begin a 13 game stretch in which they would go 9-3-1-0, vaulting them past Wenatchee, Kamloops and the Rockets into 8th place and a playoff postion. 

They have put together back-to-back winning months. With still one more February game to go, they have already put together their best month of the season at 6-2-1-0. They are four points up on Wenatchee for the final playoff spot in the west with a dozen games to go. They control their own destiny. They have done a one-eighty and turned their season around.

The schedule going forward is still going to be tough, inlcuding two 3-in-3 weekends where two of the three games will be on the road. Every game except one will be against a team with a winning record. But they have proven they can compete on a nightly basis with the best the league has to offer.  Where this ends, we don't know yet. That chapter has yet to be written, but these last two months may just be the best work GM Bil LaForge and head coach Matt O'Dette have done together since joining forces back in 2018. 

Some quick notes before I sign off:

1). Scott Ratzlaff is 11-2-1-0 in his last 14 starts. That inlcudes a 3-0 mark against the two teams currently sitting atop their respective divisions, Everett and Medicine Hat. In those three games he turned aside 110 shots or about 37 a game. Only two of the goals he gave up in those three games were in the third period. 32 saves on 34 shots with the game in the balance. If their was an MVP for the second half of the WHL season, he'd get my vote.

2). An unsung hero emerging almost every night. A game winning goal from Sawyer Mayes in Wenatchee, the fourth line stepping up with a tying goal from 16 year old Brendan Rudolph versus Everett with an assist to 16 year old Colton Gerrior. A Radim Mrtka shootout winner. Brayden Holberton with points in three of five games and Ashton Cumby blocking multiple shots every night. The list goes on. As O'Dette said, 20 guys for sixty minutes.

3). Next man up mentality. Last weekend Seattle plays three games in three days without their leading point prodcer, Braeden Cootes, in the lineup. They were missing Hyde Davidson, one of their top four d-men. They go 2-1 and came oh so close to a three game sweep.  This weekend they play two games without Nathan Pilling, their leading goal scorer, and earn three of four points. 3-1-1-0. Seven of ten points earned. Just two goals allowed in regulation in the two games this weekend. Team defense, led by Ratzlaff, is trending up.

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted

A strong effort over the last 18 games has propelled the Thunderbirds from being an afterthought to being a team being chased for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. In fact 12 games ago, the T-Birds lost at home to the Kelowna Rockets, 5-2, and as a result were seven points out of a playoff spot, dead last in the West, needing to leapfrog three teams. Since then, they have gone 8-3 and now have a three point lead for the eighth seed.

How did we get here? Well, I think there are many factors but it starts at the top with the general manager, Bil LaForge. 

I think when we assess what makes a good GM, we generally look at two areas. Do they draft well and do they make smart trades? No one is going to be one hundred percent in those two categories, but with LaForge, the batting average in both areas is Ted Williams-esque. If you want to judge his body of work as a winning percentage, I would say he is well over .500.

Some examples of his best work? Drafting players like Reid Schaefer and Nico Myatovic in the later rounds. How about the trade with Kelowna at the 2019 draft that netted, among other things, a first round pick he turned into Kevin Korchinski. There was letting all the young players eat up all the ice time in the pandemic shortened season, hastening their learning curve which led to back-to-back trips to the WHL Championship Series.

There was recognizing that the Western Conferene was wide open in 2021-22, so he made a post-Christmas deal to acquire Lukas Svejkovsky, giving his lineup a little more pop. That extra offensive punch came in handy in winning bact-to-back seven game playoff series against Portland and Kamloops.

It was knowing he had a special core group of players in 2022-23 that could take the team far and he was willing to acquire the elite talent to help them win a Chynoweth Cup. He let them know he believed in them and was willing to pay a huge price to help them achieve that goal.

Now, there are those out there who say yeah, but what about 2023-24? Why didn't he sell off the high end assets he had left over from the championship roster to hasten the rebuild? Because on paper, he saw a roster that could compete and maybe had a couple of playoff rounds in them.  No one could have guessed the Chicago Blackhawks would keep Korchinski up in the NHL all season as a 19 year old.When Korchinski left T-Birds training camp that September for the Blackhawks NHL camp, he fully believed he was going to be sent back to Seattle. There was also a belief that Seattle could get Thomas Milic back for his 20 year old season but that too didn't happen.

Injuries decimated that team. Who could have predicted Myatovic getting hurt in a goal celebration in October of that year, essentially costing him two-thirds of the season.It wasn't just injuries, it was injuries to their best players, some long term: Gustafson, Mynio, Sawchyn and Dunn. It makes it hard to compete but it also makes it hard to trade assets that aren't healthy or even on your roster. HIndsight being 20/20 maybe deals should have been made but there are just some things you can't anticipate.  A GM doesn't have a crystall ball. 

Which brings us to 2024-25.  Traveling around the league the first half of the season, there was a definite vibe that Seattle was going to be a seller. After Christmas LaForge traded the rights to Jordan Gustafson to Lethbridge for four picks and overager Hayden Pakkala. He got five assets for a player who wasn't just not on the T-Birds roster, but hadn't played a game since last spring. The fire sale was on, right?

At the trade deadline in early January, he sent his best asset, Sawyer Mynio to Calgary, getting back six assets in return, including two first round draft picks. The last time Seattle got two first round picks for one player? You have to go back to 13 years when the T-Birds got two first round picks from Portland for Marcel Noebels. One of those picks turned into Keegan Kolesar, who just happened to lead the T-Birds in playoff scoring in the spring of 2017 when they won their first Chynoweth Cup.

So, there you have it. Seattle was selling off, looking to the future. They were dead last in the Western Conference, nine points out of the playoff picture with no chance. Postseason? Nope, just play out the second half and look forward to next year.

But then LaForge did something that caught eveyone off guard. In the final minutes leading up to the trade deadline, this GM of a last place, dead-in-the-water team, traded a third and a fourth round pick to Moose Jaw for Brayden Schuurman.

Is he crazy? What is he doing burning prime assets to bring in a 20 year old on a last place team.  I saw some of those online comments, not just from other fans around the league but from T-Birds fans as well.  LaForge just made the dumbest deal in the history of the WHL, if you read between the lines. What a loser!

Come on! It's not like he brought in a Dylan Guenther to light the lamp nightly and pile up dozens of points. In 13 games with Seattle Schuurman has just three goals, along with seven assists. Definitely not worth the price paid, right? Funny though, that before he arrived Seattle was well outside the playoff picture and now they are in the driver's seat for that last playoff spot.  That's because he, and Pakkala, brought leadership and a veteran presence to a young team.  They gave the team stability and let young players play down the lineup. 

But what LaForge did with that deal more than anything, was send a message to his young club and his coaching staff.  He told them with that trade, he believed in them. He said he trusted them to pick up their game and fight for that playoff spot.  It's not guarenteed Seattle will hold on to 8th place. They still have to fend off Kamloops, Wenatchee and Kelowna, so the possibility still exists that they miss the postseason despite that trade. But the players know their GM has their back, has their best interest at heart.  He understands how important a few postseason games can be for their development. As a result the players are juiced. they are pumped up and excited to be in the chase. They now go out on the ice each game, not hoping they'll win, but believing they will win.

Which brings us back to the initial question, what makes a great GM?  Sure, it's good drafting and making smart trades whether you are a buyer or a seller. It's also knowing that sometimes you have to be both a buyer and a seller. But don't overlook that intangible of knowing how to send a message to your players that you believe in them, that you have their backs. LaForge has that.

Before I sign off, some quick notes:

1). I loved Jordan Gustafson as a T-Bird. Huge part of their 2022 and 2023 playoff runs. Feel bad that injuries have sidetracked him the last two plus seasons now. I wish nothing more than for him to get healthy and have a long terrific pro career. I check the boxscore, even now that he is in Lethbridge, to see how he is doing. The only problem, he's not in the lineup lately. He's hurt again.  How frustrating. But if he gets healthy, he's going to help the Hurricanes in the postseason. He does have five goals for them but has only played five games.

Meanwhile, Pakkala, since coming to the T-Birds in that deal has 11 points (6g, 5a) in 20 games and is +7. Seattle used one of the third round picks in that Gustafson deal to acquire Schuurman. In 13 games with the T-Birds he has 10 points (3g, 10) and is +4. So combined Pakkala and Schuurman have played 33 games and have 23 points and are +11. Good deal for both sides.

2.) I firmly believe if the Pilling match penalty hadn't occured in the second period Monday afternoon in Portland, Seattle would be riding a five game winning streak. They were the better team for most of that game. The penalty led to a Portland power play goal and Seattle lost Pilling for the rest of the game. Already without Braeden Cootes, the absences changed the complexion of the game and Portland squeezed out a 4-3 win.  Now Seattle faces the possibility of playing some key games with Pilling, their leading goal scorer, suspended.

3.) Starting to see what LaForge and the T-Birds like about Sawyer Mayes, the player acquired in the Mynio/Clagary deal.  Remember he's a 2007, so just 17.  But he's another big body who can be a handful around the net and win battles along the boards. Nice, greasy game winning goal in Wenacthee Sunday and had a couple of close in chances Monday in Portland. He also had a breakaway in Portland but lost the puck at the last second and never got a shot off. That '07 forward group is gonna be fun to watch develop together with Cootes, Martorana, Holberton, Pekar, Charko and now Mayes.

4.) Scott Ratzlaff is back!  What a stretch! Ten wins in his last 12 starts, his first shutout since 2023  Sunday in Wenatchee, a terrific 40 save effort Saturday at home against the Winterhawks.  The team is playing better in front of him because his play behind them gives them confidence. If Seattle makes the postseason he is the biggest reason for their turnaround.