Fleas on a Dog

When my nephew was young, he came home from school one December day and told his mother he learned a new Christmas song.  He then proceeded to sing it to her.  Only he heard Feliz Navidad as "fleas on a dog".  That was about twenty years ago, but every Christmas since we all sing it to my nephew when we gather.  We won't let him forget.  This will be the second Christmas we won't get to "hound" him about it though.  Thanks Covid.

And speaking of fleas on a dog, a few thoughts on the Thunderbirds disappointing loss Saturday in Everett. Yes, the loss stings.  It's a bitter pill to swallow because of what was at stake.  Seattle had a chance to put themselves in first place in the Western Conference, even if only for 24 hours. They faced a team they had just beaten fairly convincingly the night before and now was down to just 14 healthy skaters. The same effort the T-birds put forth Friday night would have probably won the game Saturday. Unfortunatley, Seattle came out flat.

Everett played hard.  That's all they did. Pretty simple game plan.  Leave every ounce of energy on the ice.  They won most of the puck battles. They put forth the effort for sixty minutes that Seattle didn't. They did very little to generate much in the way of offense though.  The offense they got all came from Seattle mistakes. Mistakes that were the result of not being mentally focused when the game started. 

Give credit to Everett for not using a short bench as an excuse, but this loss is squarely on Seattle's shoulders.There are no "gimmies" in the Western Hockey League. The T-birds learned that lesson at the expense of the top of the standings.  Maybe that's the best Christmas present this team could receive. A valuable lesson that wins are earned, not given.   

Let's get past that loss.  Don't forget it though.  Remember that sour postgame taste and let it motivate you going forward. But in the big picture, it was just one of 68 games on the schedule.  There are 40 games still to be played.  Seattle finished the pre-Christmas portion of the schedule with the second best record in the Western Conference. They went into the break by going 7-1-2-0 in their last ten games.  They put themselves in position to compete for the best record in the West. I was asked, before the season began, what I thought would be a realistic goal for this team.  I said top four finish in the conference.  They are ahead of that prediction.  

So often we remember that bitter loss and don't celebrate the successes.  Head Coach Matt O'Dette said there was a lot of positives the first two and a half months. "You can kind of forget that with the way it ends, with the bad taste in our mouth, but there's a lot to be happy about, a lot to be excited about. We've had a fantastic first half."  

They are eleven games over .500 and I still don't believe they've played their best hockey. We've seen glimpses, a period here or there, where they have looked invincible, but it hasn't sustained itself over 60-minutes yet.  They are still a relatively young team so maybe we won't see that this season on a consistent basis.  Not having the full roster together, but for a few games, has played a part as well.  

They'll have to make do the second half of the season without their leader and captain Tyrel Bauer. That's a big loss to overcome.  I think Bauer was having the kind of season that would earn him an NHL deal from Winnipeg, the team that drafted him in the sixth round back in 2020.  I hope the injury doesn't curtail that.  He's a well rounded player that will give you a little bit of everything. His offensive game is deceptive.  Who leads the team in breakaway goals?  Bauer with two. Half his goals are game winners. With Bauer healthy, the T-birds had the top penalty killing unit in the WHL.  Since his injury they have slipped a few spots down the rankings.  

Will the Bauer injury prompt Thunderbirds General Manager Bil Laforge to use some of his large stock of draft capital to make a deal before the January trade deadline?  Or is he comfortable giving some of his young blue liners more ice time while knowing he'll have Sam Knazko back after World Juniors to eat up some of those minutes Bauer would have played? After all, they did post a 3-1 record with both Bauer and Knazko unavailable and probably should have gone 4-0.  One thing we've learned so far under Laforge's tenure, he is not shy about making deals. 

Additionally, the T-birds went into the Christmas break with just 12 forwards on the roster.   That won't be sustainable over the second half.  Teams usually carry 13 or 14. Look for an addition or two to the forward group.  Maybe they rotate in a couple of young prospects.  Perhaps a few games from recently signed 2021 first round draft pick Tij Iginla?  2020 second round pick Brayden Dube is doing quite well with the Dauphin Kings of the MJHL.  The 16 year old has 26-points (15g, 11a) in 15 games, skating with older players. Could we see him for a game or three?

Where are the Thunderbirds in their "compete window"? Has it started or are they a year away? Some of the earlier trades made by teams in contention have come at a high cost, as in top prospects and multiple high picks.  The T-birds have both, but is there an acquisition to be made that fills a need without breaking the bank? 

Over the weekend the Thunderbirds put 94 shots on goal in two games.  It tells you they are driving the play. It tells you they have the majority of the puck possession. It means most of the game is being played in the opposing team's end of the ice. Yet once again the opponent ends up with 14 power plays.  Make it make sense.  

The last time Seattle played a nearly complete season, 2019-20, they had 11 road wins in 30 away games.  So far this season, they have 11 road wins in 16 road games. They lost once in Spokane in overtme.  Their four road losses in regulation have all been in Everett. They need to solve that building.  Maybe an exorcism?

Projecting the WHL career arc of 16 year old prospects is a fool's game but I like what I have seen in the limited viewings of a pair of young Thunderbirds defensemen.  Both Niko Tsakumis and Ethan Mittelsteadt have more then held their own in the few games they've played.  

The Thunderbirds used three picks through the first six rounds of the 2020 WHL Prospects Draft on d-men. Sawyer Mynio was chosen in the third round, 63rd overall.  Mittelsteadt was a 5th round selection, while Tsakumis was taken in the 6th round. Combined that trio has played 22 games this season and compiled four points (3g, 1a) and are a combined +10. 

Four of the T-birds top six defensemen on this year's roster most likely are not returning next year.   20 year olds Ryan Gottfried and Eric Van Impe are definitely gone, 19 year old Knazko won't be back either and the status of the 19 year old Bauer is now up in the air. So, those three young d-men will be needed. Also a reason why the T-birds used three of their first five picks in last week's 2021 WHL Prospects Draft on defensemen. 

O'Dette left his team with this message going into the break, "Turn the minds off of hockey for a week or so." adding, "Take precautions. With Covid flaring up everywhere we have to be smart with what we're doing over the break. Be safe and enjoy time with families."  

My T-birds Three Stars for the Week: 

Third Star: D Ryan Gottfried.  Three assists in the three games for the 20 year old defenseman.  He lost his D partner to a long term injury and immediately stepped up his game.  He'll get a lot of shifts going forward with those green, young 16 year olds.  But if you trust him that's what you do and the T-birds trust him.

Second Star: G Thomas Milic.  When you win the first two games of the week by a combined score of 12-3, it's easy to overlook the performance of your goalie, but Milic was sharp in picking up two wins. Sometimes it's not the amount of saves you make but the timely manner in which you make those saves that wins you a game.  Certainly can't blame the 4-1 loss Saturday on Milic. His team didn't give him enough support.

First Star: C Henrik Rybinski. Rybinski was terrific in the two wins, but the true measure was Saturday in Everett.  When too many of his teammates didn't play with the passion needed, he was there working hard every shift.  Seven points over his last five games (3g, 4a) and points in 14 of his last 16. he finished the week with three points (1g, 2a) and a +3 rating.  Hard to imagine him not earning a pro contract by season's end.