Fleas on a Dog

When my nephew was young, he came home from school one December day and told his mother he learned a new Christmas song.  He then proceeded to sing it to her.  Only he heard Feliz Navidad as "fleas on a dog".  That was about twenty years ago, but every Christmas since we all sing it to my nephew when we gather.  We won't let him forget.  This will be the second Christmas we won't get to "hound" him about it though.  Thanks Covid.

And speaking of fleas on a dog, a few thoughts on the Thunderbirds disappointing loss Saturday in Everett. Yes, the loss stings.  It's a bitter pill to swallow because of what was at stake.  Seattle had a chance to put themselves in first place in the Western Conference, even if only for 24 hours. They faced a team they had just beaten fairly convincingly the night before and now was down to just 14 healthy skaters. The same effort the T-birds put forth Friday night would have probably won the game Saturday. Unfortunatley, Seattle came out flat.

Everett played hard.  That's all they did. Pretty simple game plan.  Leave every ounce of energy on the ice.  They won most of the puck battles. They put forth the effort for sixty minutes that Seattle didn't. They did very little to generate much in the way of offense though.  The offense they got all came from Seattle mistakes. Mistakes that were the result of not being mentally focused when the game started. 

Give credit to Everett for not using a short bench as an excuse, but this loss is squarely on Seattle's shoulders.There are no "gimmies" in the Western Hockey League. The T-birds learned that lesson at the expense of the top of the standings.  Maybe that's the best Christmas present this team could receive. A valuable lesson that wins are earned, not given.   

Let's get past that loss.  Don't forget it though.  Remember that sour postgame taste and let it motivate you going forward. But in the big picture, it was just one of 68 games on the schedule.  There are 40 games still to be played.  Seattle finished the pre-Christmas portion of the schedule with the second best record in the Western Conference. They went into the break by going 7-1-2-0 in their last ten games.  They put themselves in position to compete for the best record in the West. I was asked, before the season began, what I thought would be a realistic goal for this team.  I said top four finish in the conference.  They are ahead of that prediction.  

So often we remember that bitter loss and don't celebrate the successes.  Head Coach Matt O'Dette said there was a lot of positives the first two and a half months. "You can kind of forget that with the way it ends, with the bad taste in our mouth, but there's a lot to be happy about, a lot to be excited about. We've had a fantastic first half."  

They are eleven games over .500 and I still don't believe they've played their best hockey. We've seen glimpses, a period here or there, where they have looked invincible, but it hasn't sustained itself over 60-minutes yet.  They are still a relatively young team so maybe we won't see that this season on a consistent basis.  Not having the full roster together, but for a few games, has played a part as well.  

They'll have to make do the second half of the season without their leader and captain Tyrel Bauer. That's a big loss to overcome.  I think Bauer was having the kind of season that would earn him an NHL deal from Winnipeg, the team that drafted him in the sixth round back in 2020.  I hope the injury doesn't curtail that.  He's a well rounded player that will give you a little bit of everything. His offensive game is deceptive.  Who leads the team in breakaway goals?  Bauer with two. Half his goals are game winners. With Bauer healthy, the T-birds had the top penalty killing unit in the WHL.  Since his injury they have slipped a few spots down the rankings.  

Will the Bauer injury prompt Thunderbirds General Manager Bil Laforge to use some of his large stock of draft capital to make a deal before the January trade deadline?  Or is he comfortable giving some of his young blue liners more ice time while knowing he'll have Sam Knazko back after World Juniors to eat up some of those minutes Bauer would have played? After all, they did post a 3-1 record with both Bauer and Knazko unavailable and probably should have gone 4-0.  One thing we've learned so far under Laforge's tenure, he is not shy about making deals. 

Additionally, the T-birds went into the Christmas break with just 12 forwards on the roster.   That won't be sustainable over the second half.  Teams usually carry 13 or 14. Look for an addition or two to the forward group.  Maybe they rotate in a couple of young prospects.  Perhaps a few games from recently signed 2021 first round draft pick Tij Iginla?  2020 second round pick Brayden Dube is doing quite well with the Dauphin Kings of the MJHL.  The 16 year old has 26-points (15g, 11a) in 15 games, skating with older players. Could we see him for a game or three?

Where are the Thunderbirds in their "compete window"? Has it started or are they a year away? Some of the earlier trades made by teams in contention have come at a high cost, as in top prospects and multiple high picks.  The T-birds have both, but is there an acquisition to be made that fills a need without breaking the bank? 

Over the weekend the Thunderbirds put 94 shots on goal in two games.  It tells you they are driving the play. It tells you they have the majority of the puck possession. It means most of the game is being played in the opposing team's end of the ice. Yet once again the opponent ends up with 14 power plays.  Make it make sense.  

The last time Seattle played a nearly complete season, 2019-20, they had 11 road wins in 30 away games.  So far this season, they have 11 road wins in 16 road games. They lost once in Spokane in overtme.  Their four road losses in regulation have all been in Everett. They need to solve that building.  Maybe an exorcism?

Projecting the WHL career arc of 16 year old prospects is a fool's game but I like what I have seen in the limited viewings of a pair of young Thunderbirds defensemen.  Both Niko Tsakumis and Ethan Mittelsteadt have more then held their own in the few games they've played.  

The Thunderbirds used three picks through the first six rounds of the 2020 WHL Prospects Draft on d-men. Sawyer Mynio was chosen in the third round, 63rd overall.  Mittelsteadt was a 5th round selection, while Tsakumis was taken in the 6th round. Combined that trio has played 22 games this season and compiled four points (3g, 1a) and are a combined +10. 

Four of the T-birds top six defensemen on this year's roster most likely are not returning next year.   20 year olds Ryan Gottfried and Eric Van Impe are definitely gone, 19 year old Knazko won't be back either and the status of the 19 year old Bauer is now up in the air. So, those three young d-men will be needed. Also a reason why the T-birds used three of their first five picks in last week's 2021 WHL Prospects Draft on defensemen. 

O'Dette left his team with this message going into the break, "Turn the minds off of hockey for a week or so." adding, "Take precautions. With Covid flaring up everywhere we have to be smart with what we're doing over the break. Be safe and enjoy time with families."  

My T-birds Three Stars for the Week: 

Third Star: D Ryan Gottfried.  Three assists in the three games for the 20 year old defenseman.  He lost his D partner to a long term injury and immediately stepped up his game.  He'll get a lot of shifts going forward with those green, young 16 year olds.  But if you trust him that's what you do and the T-birds trust him.

Second Star: G Thomas Milic.  When you win the first two games of the week by a combined score of 12-3, it's easy to overlook the performance of your goalie, but Milic was sharp in picking up two wins. Sometimes it's not the amount of saves you make but the timely manner in which you make those saves that wins you a game.  Certainly can't blame the 4-1 loss Saturday on Milic. His team didn't give him enough support.

First Star: C Henrik Rybinski. Rybinski was terrific in the two wins, but the true measure was Saturday in Everett.  When too many of his teammates didn't play with the passion needed, he was there working hard every shift.  Seven points over his last five games (3g, 4a) and points in 14 of his last 16. he finished the week with three points (1g, 2a) and a +3 rating.  Hard to imagine him not earning a pro contract by season's end.  

Oh, Canada! How We Missed You!

For the first time in 21-months, the Thunderbirds boarded the team bus and headed north of the border this past weekend.  And what a triumphant return it was as the team took both games, winning 6-1 Friday in Kamloops and coming from behind, not once but twice, to defeat the Rockets, 5-4, in Kelowna Saturday.

As a result, the T-birds have won three in a row, earned points in seven straight games and pulled within five points of the top of the Western Conference standings with a game in hand. Yes, that's right, not just within five points of the U.S. Division lead, but the top of the conference standings as well. Merry Christmas indeed!

Both wins were impressive, though in different ways.  Friday Seattle put forth a dominant opening period, scoring four times and putting the Blazers on their heels.  And when Kamloops appeared to fight back in the second, the T-birds stepped up their game a notch to hold them off and in the third period finished the game off strong.

The following night in Kelowna, Seattle, their blueline depleted by injuries, fell into an early two-goal hole.  There was no panic.  And when they fell behind a second time late in the third period, there was no panic. They didn't just climb out of that hole, they jumped out.  In the second leg of a two game road trek, with many hours spent on the bus, they were stronger at the end of the game then they were at the beginning, scoring two late goals for the win.

One of the quirks of Prospera Place in Kelowna is that the scouts' room is up in the pressbox, adjacent to the visiting radio cubicle.  So I get to eavesdrop on some of the conversations taking place before the game between NHL scouts. Saturday night a couple of scouts, who had been in Kamloops the night before, were discussing Seattle's battle with the Blazers.  It's funny that they had slightly different takes on the game. 

One said it was a dominant start by the T-birds. They came ready to play and capitalized on their chances.  The other basically said Kamloops was just as good if not better. They just had a bad start, but he said they got it together later on and he gave them full marks for not quitting. You can probably find truth in both perspectives. Think about that when you see player rankings for the draft.  Different teams will view a player differently, depending on when they saw him and who he was playing against.

The one thing they agreed on? The Seattle goalie,Thomas Milic, was exceptional.  And he was.  Milic made some big saves on a couple of Blazers ten-bell scoring chances on their early first period power play. I think if Kamloops gets one by him there, it's a different game.  Milic's early saves settled his team down and the T-birds would not only kill off that power play but strike shorthanded to open the scoring.

In the second period, with the Blazers already on the board with an early goal to cut into the T-birds lead, Seattle took another penalty. Kamloops had a chance to cut the Seattle lead in half and put all the momentum on their side. But Milic stopped a breakaway with an incredible, sprawling, right pad save.  The threat was neutralized. Seattle began to push back after that and eventually pulled away with a couple third period goals. In a 6-1 game you don't think of the goalie of the winning team being the difference, but Milic was the key for Seattle.

Have the hockey gods transpired to work against the T-birds? Have they made some kind of pact that when one key Seattle player comes back from injury, they have to lose another?  What deal has been made that says the Thunderbirds are not allowed to be whole for more than 24-hours? No sooner do the T-birds get Henrik Rybinski back in the lineup after a seven-game absence, they lose not one, but three player on the weekend.  Friday it was Ty Bauer and Sawyer Mynio leaving the game against Kamloops.  Saturday in Kelowna, Sam Knazko departed.

Saturday, after the big win in Kamloops and after approximately 20 plus hours on the bus, and after a three in the morning arrival at the hotel in Kelowna, the T-birds could have just phoned it in, especially after falling behind to the Rockets, 2-0, after twenty minutes. After losing the lead in the third period they worked so hard to get, they could have packed it in and said hey, it's not our night. They could have just been satisfied with a weekend road split, taken the two points from the game the night before and headed home. 

But they didn't. Even with only five healthy d-men left, including a last second call up in 16-year old Niko Tsakumis, they stayed on course.  They didn't mentally check out, they pushed forward.  They earned that "W" and put an exclamation point on a winning weekend.

A third of the way into the season and half of Seattle's skaters have reached double digits in points. The T-birds are deploying their depth.  The players you expected to be scoring, the Rybinski's, the Roulette's, the Gustafson's, are doing just that but the Davidson's, the Schaefer's and the Sanders' are pulling their weight too. Prior to this season Reid Schaefer and Mekai Sanders had combined for eight points (3g, 5a) in 72 games.  Through the first 25 games this season they have combined for 30-points (19g, 11a). That's quite the production from a couple of players selected in the eighth and ninth rounds respectively, of the 2018 WHL Prospects draft. 

We saw our first coach's offside challenge of the season as T-bird head coach Matt O'Dette challenged Kelowna's fourth goal.  "We were pretty confident with that decision (to challenge). There were five or six of our guys standing right there at our bench who said it was definitely offside, so it was a pretty safe risk, we thought." The goal was not overturned because there was inconclusive video evidence.  But because the video was inconclusive, neither were the T-birds penalized for losing the challenge.

There are three possible outcomes to a coach's offside challenge. One, the goal is overturned on review. Two,the goal stands because the video clearly shows the play was NOT offside and the challenging team is assessed a minor penalty and, three, the goal is not overturned, but the challenging team is not issued a minor penalty because the video evidence is inconclusive. 

I liked the idea of a challenge by the Seattle coaches in that instance.  First, even though the goal was not overturned, the stoppage of play, for what turned into a lengthy review, blunted the Rockets momentum and allowed the T-birds to regroup. After the delay, Seattle came right back and scored to tie the game back up.  Secondly, this is the WHL, not the NHL. there aren't 10 different camera angles to review, usually just one and it's not on the blue line.  It's going to be hard to consistently find conclusive video evidence, which means the chances of getting assessed a minor penalty on an unsuccessful challenge should be pretty low.  

My T-birds Three Stars for the Week:

Third Star: D Kevin Korchinski. The T-birds 2019 first round draft pick had not scored a goal in his first 45-games in the league.  He now has three in his last four games. He is getting more and more comfortable, and looking more and more confident eating up big minutes in key situations. Quite appropriate that he has his first two-goal game against Kelowna.  The T-birds selected Korchinski tenth overall in that 2019 Draft with a first round pick they obtained in a trade from the Rockets. 

Second Star: G Thomas Milic.  Milic went 2-0, stopping 56 of 58 shots in the process.   Seattle is ranked number one in the WHL on the penalty kill and he's a huge component of that success.  Over his last five starts he is 4-0-1-0 with a goals against average of 1.22 and a save percentage of .957. Whether it's a one goal game or a five goal lead, he plays the same way, as if the game is on the line with every shot he faces.

First Star: C Henrik Rybinski.  With Rybinski out of the line up for seven straight games recently, Seattle went 2-3-2-0.  Since his return from injury the T-birds are a perfect 3-0-0-0.  In just 16-games he has posted 19-points (6g, 13a) and is +15. This past week he registered four points (2g, 2a) and was +6.  With him in the lineup they are 12-3-1-0, without him they are 4-3-2-0.  Every player is on board the T-bird train this season, but he is clearly one of the drivers.  

Get to the Points

Hard to find fault when the Thunderbirds earns points in all three games this week and have points in four straight games. But as Head Coach Matt O'Dette said after the team's overtime loss in Spokane Saturday night, they have high standards and they expect to win. So, there is a little disappoinment in settling for one point, rather then getting the two in each game this weekend.

I think the only real frustration was the overtime loss Friday night at home to Victoria.  Three times in that game Seattle had the lead.  Three times they couldn't hold it, before falling 5-4 in the extra period. They had such an excellent first period.  They then grabed a 2-0 lead early in the second.  I don't think they got complacent, but I think some players got away from the game plan, maybe cut some corners.  That allowed Victoria back in to the game.

You might think dropping that game to a team that, at the time was in tenth place in the ten team Western Conference, was an ugly loss on the schedule.  But while it doesn't completely take away the sting of the overtime defeat, look what the Royals did in their journey against the U.S. Division.  They took all five teams to overtime and won four of them.  Not only did they beat Seattle, but they beat Everett and Portland too.

The T-birds continue to consistently outshoot their opponents. In the three games this past week they had a 109-64 shot advantage.  In the three games they averaged 36 shots per game (which, by the way, is their season average) while allowing an average of 21 shots against.  Using my expert math skills I think that's 15 more shots per game then their opponents.  At least, that's what my calculator tells me.  What does that mean?  How do you outshoot three opponents in that fashion and only go 1-0-2-0?  

Getting more shots doesn't guarentee a win.  You still have to finish your chances.  It does give you a chance to win though. Sometimes you run into a hot goalie who steals a game from you.  Sometimes there are shots that don't even count, like the ones off the post or crossbar, that trip you up.  But usually more shots, and decidedly more shots, tells you which team is carrying the play.  It usually indicates puck possession is tilted in your favor.  What we do know is, that if you're not shooting, you're not scoring. Seattle is shooting.

Currently, Seattle is averaging 3.4 goals per game.  I think they can do better, but that's pretty darn good considering they've played one third of their schedule without Henrik Rybinski in the lineup.  That's a third of your season without one of your best offensive weapons available. There will be stretches of the season where the puck just isn't going in for you. Offense can be streaky, but you keep funneling pucks to the net because you can't win if you don't score and you can't score if you don't shoot.  Offense is not an issue for the T-birds.

Sam Knazko is rusty.  The newet T-bird hadn't played in a competive game in a while.  He had played sparingly in just 16 games in Finland before opting out and deciding to come to North America.  He then got Covid and had to shut down all hockey activity.  He's still working on building back up his stamina.  But in just two games, you can see glimpes of the elite talent he brings to the roster.  Just don't say Seattle got lucky and he fell into their laps.  Remember, he's a T-bird because GM Bil LaForge selected him in the 2020 CHL Import Draft.  

Don't forget there is not one, but two WHL Drafts coming up this week.  Wednesday is the U.S. Prospects Draft,  a two round affair, and the T-birds have the number one overall selection.  Thursday is the regular 2021 WHL Prospects Draft and Seattle chooses ninth overall in that one, and has four of the top forty picks.  In the second round Seattle has their own pick at #31 as well as Red Deer's pick at #24 and Kelowna's at #38.

My T-birds Three Stars for the Week:

D Kevin Korchinski.  He finally scored his first WHL goal Saturday in Spokane and it was a big one, tying the game at two and getting Seattle a road point.  He had three points in the three games (1g, 2a).  On a team that has two 20-year old D-men and now two 19-year old NHL drafted defensemen, this 17-year old, still somewhat of a rookie, still logs huge minutes on the blue line.  He has seven points in  his last eight games and is quietly fifth overall in team scoring.

Second Star: C Jordan Gustafson. Whie Korchinski was the second of Seattle's two first round picks in the 2019 WHL Prospects Draft, Gustafson was their first and he is living up to that billing.  He leads the team in goals scored with ten and is tied with Conner Roulette for the team lead in points at 24.  With Rybinski out for seven straight games, Gustafson has been elevated to the top center role and has been not shrunk from the responsibility. He registered points in all three games this week (1g, 3a) and is currently riding a five game point streak.

First Star: C/W Jared Davidson.  Davidson has really picked up his offensive game in the absence of Rybinski.  He had five points (2g, 3a) in the three games this week and is riding a four game point streak (3g, 4a).  He has already passed his point total from last season.  Last spring he reached 20-points in 23 games.  He now has 21 points in 22-games this season. His 21-points has elevated him to second on the team in scoring, just three points off the lead.