The To Do List

Now that the season has ended and we've said goodbye to the players we know won't return next season, what's next for the Seattle Thunderbirds?  What are the priorities this offseason?  Will there be a battle for the three 20 year old spots or will that be settled before training camp? Is there going to be a goaltending controversy?  Inquiring minds want to know!

First up for the T-birds is the annual WHL Bantam Draft in early May.  Seattle has the 10th overall pick in the first round and two more picks in the middle of Round Two.  They have at least one pick in each remaining round.  Seattle Director of Personnel Cal Filson and his staff are busy finishing up their scouting and finalizing their draft board.  With a month to go, there is still a lot of scouting to do, with tournaments all over Western Canada and the U.S.  How does this pool of talent stack up against recent drafts?  Only time will tell but the T-birds are in good position to come away with some quality talent early in the selection process.  Filson told me earlier this week that there are some high end forwards at the top of the draft and there should be good depth among defenseman throughout draft day. 

Much of the work to be done between now and next fall is up to the players already on the organization's depth chart, especially the younger guys on the roster. Specifically there are a number of young guys who need to use this offseason to improve physically and get stronger.  In that regard it is an important offseason for players such as Sam Huo, Dillon Hamaliuk, Holden Katzalay, Owen Williams and Tyson Terretta to name a few.  They have shown flashes of their hockey talent and the potential is there but they need to get physically stronger to be more consistent over a long 72-game schedule.  The talent is there to make another playoff run in 2018-19.

As an example, and this is my own opinion, by March the physical exertion needed over a six month season seemed  to take it's toll on Hamaliuk.  That's not a surprise.  He was a 17 year old rookie playing mostly on the second line, often going up against older, more physically mature players.  Hamaliuk was an ironman, playing in all 72 games and he surprised many by finishing 6th in rookie scoring in the WHL with 54 points (15g, 39a).  A focused offseason and he could certainly bump those numbers up in year two, especially knowing it is his first year of eligibility for the NHL Draft.  He is one of those players on the roster who have length but now need to add muscle to his frame.  No one is asking these players to live in the gym the next five months but they need to pay heed to their offseason workout program provided to them by the team.  

One player who just got better and better as the season progressed and had a terrific five game postseason was rookie defenseman Jake Lee.  the 2016 first round bantam pick is a smart young man, both on and off the ice. He has a boatload of confidence to the point he's even a little cocky.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, in moderation.  The best players always have a little edge to their game and Lee certainly has that.  I'm not comparing the two talent-wise, but Mat Barzal had that characteristic as well.  Of course Barzal backed it up with his play on the ice.  Lee is just one season in and  is still in the proving-it process.  Lee did take on a bigger role after the trade of Aaron Hyman midseason and he took advantage and flourished.  Lee is the type of player you can build a core group around for the future.  Like Hamaliuk, Lee  too will be going into his first year of NHL draft eligibility so the 2018-19 campaign is an important one for him.  

One rookie who gets lost in the discussion is Tyler Carpendale.  Carpendale started the season rehabbing from an injury, then played in only 19 games before he suffered another injury that cost him the rest of the season.  Nineteen games is not a big sample size but I liked what I saw.  Carpendale was just getting going when his season was cut short.  He had scored all of his points (2g, 3a) in the six games prior to the injury.  This is a big power forward type who skates well and can punish players with his physical game. He was listed at 6'4" and was 197 lbs. when last season began.  I imagine he'll be bigger at the start of next season.  I think a healthy Carpendale would have affected games the second half of the year so I'm anxious to see him healthy again.  

What about the 20 year old situation?  Seattle has five players eligible for three spots.  Nolan Volcan is a lock, unless he signs a pro deal although even that doesn't preclude him from returning.  You can probably go ahead right now and sew the "C" on his jersey. He's the captain.  Volcan was the team's leading scorer (tied with the graduating Donovan Neuls) and second in goal production with a career best 32.  His trajectory says he could pot 40 next season.

Zack Andrusiak was tops on the team in goals scored with 36 and third in total scoring with 74 points, just two points back of Volcan and Neuls. He is the most "natural" goal scorer on the roster and like Volcan has the potential to be a 40 or even 50 goal scorer.  He'll be a critical element to the power play.  His 11 power play goals were second to the graduating Austin Strand's 14.  That type of offensive production is not easy to find so it is hard to imagine him not on the roster next season as a 20 year old.

That leaves one spot up for grabs among Noah Philp, Blake Barger and Mike Maclean.    Philp was the most consistent of the three mentioned and finished with 50 points.  Bargar is both a strong leader and a strong penalty killer whose season was interrupted by a late season injury.  Maclean was the feel good story, a 19 year old rookie who made the most of a half season in the WHL and is well liked by his teammates.  I'm guessing the third overage comes from the above trio. 

The one caveat?  All five of those candidates are forwards.  Seattle loses two of their best d-men in 20 year olds Strand and Turner Ottenbreit.  The most seasoned returning defenseman is 19 year old Jarret Tyszka, who enters his fourth campaign with the club.  Another 19 year old, Reece Harsch, will enter his third year.  After that it is all second year players and rookies.    Might Seattle look to add a veteran leader back on the blue line by acquiring a 20 year old defenseman to supplement that young group?  My initial thought is to say no and the team will let the young defensemen soak up the ice time.

It could also depend on how much confidence the brass has in the young forwards.  The T-birds have a bevy of wingers who are chomping at the bit, wanting more ice at the WHL level.  Besides those mentioned above, you have others such as Graeme Bryks, Payton Mount and Cody Savey. If they're going to be on the roster next season they're going to need ice time.  Could it come at the expense of a third 20 year old forward?  Seattle acquired two 19 year old forwards in Bargar and Philp early last season to help out with some veteran presence, then brought in MacLean in December.  All had a positive impact. They also added Jaxan Kaluski from Moose Jaw in a January trade and he'll enter his 19 year old year next fall.   They could do the same again this coming season and save that third overage spot for a defenseman if they feel they are too green on the blueline .  

Then there is the goaltending conundrum.  Seattle went through a tumultuous season in net because of injuries.  Three goalies who all got a minimum of 15 starts.  The biggest question mark is still the status of Carl Stankowski who missed the entire year.  Is he back next season and is he ready to go from day one?  Can the Thunderbirds rely on his health?  We know what he's capable of when healthy. He's an elite goalie at this level and has a championship ring to prove it.  Meanwhile,  Liam Hughes dealt with his own injuries the first half of the year but when healthy for the second half he showed he could handle the load and be a solid number one guy. There are probably a few teams still alive in the postseason, and a couple others who have been eliminated who, in hindsight, would have loved to have spent a 4th round bantam pick on Hughes as the T-birds did last September.  His second half numbers were among the best in the league.  

I guess the question is, can Seattle juggle the two and will those two be happy splitting time in net when both believe they are number one guys?  It's not like the franchise hasn't done that in the past. Go back to 2007-08 when Riku Helenius and Jacob DeSerres split goaltending duties and both finished with 20+ wins, sub 2.45 goals-against-averages and  both had save percentages north of .915.  At the time Helenius was a first round NHL Draft pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning.  The T-birds also have a capable number two goalie on the roster in Dorrin Luding and a couple of signed prospects in Cole Schwebius and Eric Ward.  

Unlike a year ago when Seattle lost nearly 400 points from the roster when the season was done, this time around the T-birds lose only between 200-230 points.  The T-birds potentially will have five of their top eight scorers back for next year in Volcan, Andrusiak, Matthew Wedman, Philp and Sami Moilanen.  Throw in Hamaliuk and of their top six point producing forwards, only Neuls won't be back next year.  Wedman's numbers were much better the second half, compared to his first half.  28 of his 47 points came after December, including 11 of his 17 goals.  Remember, this was a two and a half month stretch in which Seattle played primarily against the tough U.S. Division.  He was trending in the right direction. 

The same can be said of Philp, whose biggest contribution seemed to be his positive impact on the young forwards on the roster. He played often on a line that featured either Huo or Hamaliuk and often both.  Philp recorded 20 of his 50 points in the last 25 games of the season.  It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Philp is a point a game player next season if he's back as one of the team's three 20 year olds.  Philp is similar to the outgoing Neuls in that he can play on the wing or at center and can hold his own on both the power play and penalty kill. 

Meanwhile, hopefully Moilanen stays healthy next year.  He was on a 35 goal and 64 point pace before those injuries cost him 22 games, primarily in the second half.  There is no question he has 40 goal capability.  It's also no coincidence that when he was in the lineup Seattle scored at a higher per game rate. The T-birds offense was near four goals a game with him on the ice.  When he suffered the injury and missed February and part of March the goals per game average dipped to around two.  The dip in offense is not only because the team missed his scoring either.  His absence made the power play inconsistent.  His willingness to play a physical game and win puck battles creates turnovers that lead to scoring from other players.  

The two big point producers the team will have to replace are Neuls and Strand.  I think they replace that Neuls production with improvement from Hamaliuk who finished 10th on the team in points.   Hopefully a full season of Carpendale takes up some of that slack.  A healthy Moilanen and more consistent offensive production from Wedman will help.  If the third 20 year old is one of those forwards expect more points from that spot as well and a few other second year players should improve on their point totals. There is no reason to think Seattle can't do what they've done the past two years and score 250 goals or more.  

Strand and his 25 goals from the blue line will be harder to make up. Seattle does have a candidate on the roster in Jarret Tyszka.  Tyszka had an up and down season but still had 40 points (8g, 32a).  If the Montreal Canadiens prospects wants to earn a pro contract then he'll need to pick up his game next year and with no Strand or even an Ethan Bear on the roster anymore, he should get every chance to do that.  Obviously teams at the next level see he has talent or he wouldn't have been drafted by an NHL team.  He needs to have a good offseason and up his production in 2018-19.  He doesn't have to be Strand.  He doesn't have to be Bear.  He has to be the Jarret Tyszka Seattle used a first round bantam selection on in 2014.  We have seen glimpses of his high end game.  Now we need it for 72 games.  

Seattle surrendered far too many goals against.  That was a byproduct of a young roster, often times not as physically mature as the opponent.  The fluctuating situation in goal was also a contributing factor. But at times Seattle also got away from one of their core principles:  take care of the defensive zone first.  More attention to the d-zone, better puck management, a settled goaltending situation and another year in the system for the young players hopefully will cut down on the goals allowed.  

There are always unknown variables during the offseason that will affect next year's roster.  A surprise trade that brings a player in or sends a player out.  Maybe an unexpected signing of a list player or draft choice the team took a flyer on or a young player who took his offseason seriously and dramatically improves his game. I know you're all waiting for the second coming of Scott Eansor, right?   Until that happens though, these are the players Seattle has going into their offseason.  It's a solid group with loads of potential.  The question is, will they realize it?