Monday, February 7, 2011

The GR8 Race

The race for the 8th and final playoff spot is on! It gets a a marquee billing when the T-Birds travel to Kamloops Wednesday to face the Blazers for the final time this season. Kamloops currently occupies that 8th and final playoff spot out west. They are just two points up on the T-Birds though which means a Seattle win would push the T-Birds back into the #8 seed.

Here are the updated pace to the playoff projections with points earned per game in parenthesis and games remaining in the column after that.

1. Portland is on pace to finish with 100 pts (1.38) 18
2. Vancouver is on pace to finish with 82.47 pts (1.145) 17
3. Spokane is on pace to finish with 96.92 pts (1.346) 20
4. Tri-City is on pace to finish with 99.36 pts (1.38) 22
5. Kelowna is on pace to finish with 83.07 pts (1.153) 20
6. Prince George is on pace to finish with 76.10 pts (1.057) 20
7. Everett is on pace to finish with 72 pts (1.00) 18
8. Kamloops is on pace to finish with 63 pts (0.875) 16
9. Chilliwack is on pace to finish with 66.46 pts (0.923) 20
10. Seattle is on pace to finish with 62.66 pts (0.87) 18

As I said, if the T-Birds win in Kamloops Wednesday, they would vault up past both the Blazers and Chilliwack to the 8th spot in the conference standings. More importantly, their PPG would increase to 0.89 and they would be on pace to finish the season with 64.14 pts. That would put them ahead of Kamloops' pace (which would fall to 0.859/61.90 pts). Their PPG and points pace would still trail Chilliwack; the Bruins are idle until Friday when they play at Kelowna. Remember too, the T-Birds have two more head-to-head games remaining with the Bruins and both will be at the ShoWare Center.

For arguements sake, lets say the T-Birds defeat Kamloops and win both home games versus Chilliwack. That would give the T-Birds a PPG average of 0.929 and put them on pace for 66.947 pts. Chilliwack would then would have a PPG average of 0.888 and would be on pace for 64 pts. So you can see even with success in the final three games against the two teams directly in front of them in the standings, Seattle is still going to have to earn points in the other 15 games left on their schedule. Beyond the three games against Kamloops and Chilliwack, here is what's left on the T-Birds schedule: Portland(4), Spokane(3), Tri-City(2), Everett(2), Vancouver(2), Kelowna(1) and Prince George (1).

Here is Chilliwack's remaining schedule beyond the two against Seattle: Kelowna(4), Tri-City (3), Portland (2), Vancouver (4), Prince George (1), Lethbridge (1), Kamloops (1), Spokane (1) and Everett (1).

Here is Kamloops' remaining schedule beyond Wednesday nights game against the T-Birds: Vancouver, Chilliwack, Edmonton, Red Deer, Medicine Hat and Kootenay 1 each, Tri-City (2), Kelowna (3), Lethbridge (2) and Prince George (2).

1 comment:

  1. Kind of a crapshoot there with Kamloops heading out East so late in the season. Perhaps it should be a scheduling rule that all inter-conference games take place before the trade deadline?