How Far We've Come

It's been a good 2025 thus far for the Seattle Thunderbirds. With their win Saturday at home over the Everett Silvertips, the T-Birds record since January 1st is 12-7-1-0. Only five of the T-Birds 20 games in the new year have been against a team with a losing record; three against Kelowna and two versus Wenatchee. Seattle went 3-1-1-0 in those five games, meaning the Thunderbirds record in 15 games against teams with winning records in the new year is a very solid 9-6. It includes two wins against the team with the best record in the WHL, Everett, a win agaisnt the team with the top record in the Eastern Conference, Medicine Hat, as well as a win versus B.C. Division leader Victoria.

When the calendar page turned from 2024 to 2025, the T-Birds sat in 11th place in the eleven team Western Conference.  Their 25 points had them five points behind Wenatchee for 10th place and seven points back of both Kelowna and Kamloops, who were tied for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west with 32 points each. They were coming off a month of December in which they had gone just 2-8-0-0 and ended the month on a five game losing streak.

Three games into 2025 The T-Birds went 1-2 while Kelowna was going 2-1 through their first three games, meaning Seattle was now nine points back of the Rockets for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference ten days into the new year. In fact, the Thunderbirds came off the Christmas break by losing five of their first six games to start the second half of the season, and had just traded away one of their best players, Sawyer Mynio.

Seven games into January and the 'Birds were 3-4. Respectable at nearly .500, but still staring up at a seven point deficit in the chase for that final Western Conference playoff spot. They still needed to climb over three teams in the standings. You can give up, or you can chose to get into the fight. Seattle chose to join the battle.

In reality, it wasn't until January 21st, one month ago, that the T-Birds began their climb out of the cellar. With their 7-1 win over the Vancouver Giants on January 21st, Seattle would begin a 13 game stretch in which they would go 9-3-1-0, vaulting them past Wenatchee, Kamloops and the Rockets into 8th place and a playoff postion. 

They have put together back-to-back winning months. With still one more February game to go, they have already put together their best month of the season at 6-2-1-0. They are four points up on Wenatchee for the final playoff spot in the west with a dozen games to go. They control their own destiny. They have done a one-eighty and turned their season around.

The schedule going forward is still going to be tough, inlcuding two 3-in-3 weekends where two of the three games will be on the road. Every game except one will be against a team with a winning record. But they have proven they can compete on a nightly basis with the best the league has to offer.  Where this ends, we don't know yet. That chapter has yet to be written, but these last two months may just be the best work GM Bil LaForge and head coach Matt O'Dette have done together since joining forces back in 2018. 

Some quick notes before I sign off:

1). Scott Ratzlaff is 11-2-1-0 in his last 14 starts. That inlcudes a 3-0 mark against the two teams currently sitting atop their respective divisions, Everett and Medicine Hat. In those three games he turned aside 110 shots or about 37 a game. Only two of the goals he gave up in those three games were in the third period. 32 saves on 34 shots with the game in the balance. If their was an MVP for the second half of the WHL season, he'd get my vote.

2). An unsung hero emerging almost every night. A game winning goal from Sawyer Mayes in Wenatchee, the fourth line stepping up with a tying goal from 16 year old Brendan Rudolph versus Everett with an assist to 16 year old Colton Gerrior. A Radim Mrtka shootout winner. Brayden Holberton with points in three of five games and Ashton Cumby blocking multiple shots every night. The list goes on. As O'Dette said, 20 guys for sixty minutes.

3). Next man up mentality. Last weekend Seattle plays three games in three days without their leading point prodcer, Braeden Cootes, in the lineup. They were missing Hyde Davidson, one of their top four d-men. They go 2-1 and came oh so close to a three game sweep.  This weekend they play two games without Nathan Pilling, their leading goal scorer, and earn three of four points. 3-1-1-0. Seven of ten points earned. Just two goals allowed in regulation in the two games this weekend. Team defense, led by Ratzlaff, is trending up.

The Hunter Becomes the Hunted

A strong effort over the last 18 games has propelled the Thunderbirds from being an afterthought to being a team being chased for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. In fact 12 games ago, the T-Birds lost at home to the Kelowna Rockets, 5-2, and as a result were seven points out of a playoff spot, dead last in the West, needing to leapfrog three teams. Since then, they have gone 8-3 and now have a three point lead for the eighth seed.

How did we get here? Well, I think there are many factors but it starts at the top with the general manager, Bil LaForge. 

I think when we assess what makes a good GM, we generally look at two areas. Do they draft well and do they make smart trades? No one is going to be one hundred percent in those two categories, but with LaForge, the batting average in both areas is Ted Williams-esque. If you want to judge his body of work as a winning percentage, I would say he is well over .500.

Some examples of his best work? Drafting players like Reid Schaefer and Nico Myatovic in the later rounds. How about the trade with Kelowna at the 2019 draft that netted, among other things, a first round pick he turned into Kevin Korchinski. There was letting all the young players eat up all the ice time in the pandemic shortened season, hastening their learning curve which led to back-to-back trips to the WHL Championship Series.

There was recognizing that the Western Conferene was wide open in 2021-22, so he made a post-Christmas deal to acquire Lukas Svejkovsky, giving his lineup a little more pop. That extra offensive punch came in handy in winning bact-to-back seven game playoff series against Portland and Kamloops.

It was knowing he had a special core group of players in 2022-23 that could take the team far and he was willing to acquire the elite talent to help them win a Chynoweth Cup. He let them know he believed in them and was willing to pay a huge price to help them achieve that goal.

Now, there are those out there who say yeah, but what about 2023-24? Why didn't he sell off the high end assets he had left over from the championship roster to hasten the rebuild? Because on paper, he saw a roster that could compete and maybe had a couple of playoff rounds in them.  No one could have guessed the Chicago Blackhawks would keep Korchinski up in the NHL all season as a 19 year old.When Korchinski left T-Birds training camp that September for the Blackhawks NHL camp, he fully believed he was going to be sent back to Seattle. There was also a belief that Seattle could get Thomas Milic back for his 20 year old season but that too didn't happen.

Injuries decimated that team. Who could have predicted Myatovic getting hurt in a goal celebration in October of that year, essentially costing him two-thirds of the season.It wasn't just injuries, it was injuries to their best players, some long term: Gustafson, Mynio, Sawchyn and Dunn. It makes it hard to compete but it also makes it hard to trade assets that aren't healthy or even on your roster. HIndsight being 20/20 maybe deals should have been made but there are just some things you can't anticipate.  A GM doesn't have a crystall ball. 

Which brings us to 2024-25.  Traveling around the league the first half of the season, there was a definite vibe that Seattle was going to be a seller. After Christmas LaForge traded the rights to Jordan Gustafson to Lethbridge for four picks and overager Hayden Pakkala. He got five assets for a player who wasn't just not on the T-Birds roster, but hadn't played a game since last spring. The fire sale was on, right?

At the trade deadline in early January, he sent his best asset, Sawyer Mynio to Calgary, getting back six assets in return, including two first round draft picks. The last time Seattle got two first round picks for one player? You have to go back to 13 years when the T-Birds got two first round picks from Portland for Marcel Noebels. One of those picks turned into Keegan Kolesar, who just happened to lead the T-Birds in playoff scoring in the spring of 2017 when they won their first Chynoweth Cup.

So, there you have it. Seattle was selling off, looking to the future. They were dead last in the Western Conference, nine points out of the playoff picture with no chance. Postseason? Nope, just play out the second half and look forward to next year.

But then LaForge did something that caught eveyone off guard. In the final minutes leading up to the trade deadline, this GM of a last place, dead-in-the-water team, traded a third and a fourth round pick to Moose Jaw for Brayden Schuurman.

Is he crazy? What is he doing burning prime assets to bring in a 20 year old on a last place team.  I saw some of those online comments, not just from other fans around the league but from T-Birds fans as well.  LaForge just made the dumbest deal in the history of the WHL, if you read between the lines. What a loser!

Come on! It's not like he brought in a Dylan Guenther to light the lamp nightly and pile up dozens of points. In 13 games with Seattle Schuurman has just three goals, along with seven assists. Definitely not worth the price paid, right? Funny though, that before he arrived Seattle was well outside the playoff picture and now they are in the driver's seat for that last playoff spot.  That's because he, and Pakkala, brought leadership and a veteran presence to a young team.  They gave the team stability and let young players play down the lineup. 

But what LaForge did with that deal more than anything, was send a message to his young club and his coaching staff.  He told them with that trade, he believed in them. He said he trusted them to pick up their game and fight for that playoff spot.  It's not guarenteed Seattle will hold on to 8th place. They still have to fend off Kamloops, Wenatchee and Kelowna, so the possibility still exists that they miss the postseason despite that trade. But the players know their GM has their back, has their best interest at heart.  He understands how important a few postseason games can be for their development. As a result the players are juiced. they are pumped up and excited to be in the chase. They now go out on the ice each game, not hoping they'll win, but believing they will win.

Which brings us back to the initial question, what makes a great GM?  Sure, it's good drafting and making smart trades whether you are a buyer or a seller. It's also knowing that sometimes you have to be both a buyer and a seller. But don't overlook that intangible of knowing how to send a message to your players that you believe in them, that you have their backs. LaForge has that.

Before I sign off, some quick notes:

1). I loved Jordan Gustafson as a T-Bird. Huge part of their 2022 and 2023 playoff runs. Feel bad that injuries have sidetracked him the last two plus seasons now. I wish nothing more than for him to get healthy and have a long terrific pro career. I check the boxscore, even now that he is in Lethbridge, to see how he is doing. The only problem, he's not in the lineup lately. He's hurt again.  How frustrating. But if he gets healthy, he's going to help the Hurricanes in the postseason. He does have five goals for them but has only played five games.

Meanwhile, Pakkala, since coming to the T-Birds in that deal has 11 points (6g, 5a) in 20 games and is +7. Seattle used one of the third round picks in that Gustafson deal to acquire Schuurman. In 13 games with the T-Birds he has 10 points (3g, 10) and is +4. So combined Pakkala and Schuurman have played 33 games and have 23 points and are +11. Good deal for both sides.

2.) I firmly believe if the Pilling match penalty hadn't occured in the second period Monday afternoon in Portland, Seattle would be riding a five game winning streak. They were the better team for most of that game. The penalty led to a Portland power play goal and Seattle lost Pilling for the rest of the game. Already without Braeden Cootes, the absences changed the complexion of the game and Portland squeezed out a 4-3 win.  Now Seattle faces the possibility of playing some key games with Pilling, their leading goal scorer, suspended.

3.) Starting to see what LaForge and the T-Birds like about Sawyer Mayes, the player acquired in the Mynio/Clagary deal.  Remember he's a 2007, so just 17.  But he's another big body who can be a handful around the net and win battles along the boards. Nice, greasy game winning goal in Wenacthee Sunday and had a couple of close in chances Monday in Portland. He also had a breakaway in Portland but lost the puck at the last second and never got a shot off. That '07 forward group is gonna be fun to watch develop together with Cootes, Martorana, Holberton, Pekar, Charko and now Mayes.

4.) Scott Ratzlaff is back!  What a stretch! Ten wins in his last 12 starts, his first shutout since 2023  Sunday in Wenatchee, a terrific 40 save effort Saturday at home against the Winterhawks.  The team is playing better in front of him because his play behind them gives them confidence. If Seattle makes the postseason he is the biggest reason for their turnaround.