A December to Remember

Happy Holidays T-Birds Nation!  The Thunderbirs gift to you? A terrific first half and a number one ranking in the CHL Top Ten poll.  The best news about the gift? you don't have to wait until Christmas morning to unwrap it. It is yours to enjoy right now.

Seattle just finished a stretch playing six games over nine days. They played the first four of those six games absent five of their best players including their top three defenseman. They played the last two still without four of their best players in the lineup. How'd they do? They went 5-0-0-1 and were one major faux paus away from a clean six game sweep.  

In those six games, without their leading goal scorer on hand, they scored 28 goals. That's just under five goals per game (4.7). With their number one goalie away, they allowed just ten goals in those six games, or 1.67 goals per contest.  The kids are alright.

The first three of those six games they failed to score a first period goal but came back to take the lead in all three, even the game they lost in the shootout.  Challenged by the coaching staff to come out with better starts, they outscored their opponents 9-0 in the first period in the last three games.  

One month ago the Thunderbirds executed the trade that brought Nolan Allan to Seattle from Prince Albert. To make the deal the T-Birds gave up some of their depth as forwards Gabe Ludwig and Brayden Dube, along with defenseman Easton Kovacs, headed to the Raiders.  They then dealt d-man Niko Tsakumis to Everett because he desired more playing time.

To fill the gap Seattle traded with Swift Current for Ty Hurley, signed Ashton McNelly and recently recalled Simon Lovsin and Spencer Michnik.  Those players have done a solid job of filling the back end of the roster, especially with players away.  They have combined for three assists in 18 games with a +8 rating. Michnik won his first WHL start.  It may not seem like much but they've been valuable in keeping the Thunderbirds train on the track the last couple of weeks.

The Thunderbirds have released the only Import player on the roster, Swiss defenseman Kai Knak.  Nice, polite young man. Unfortunately it was the the wrong place, or maybe just the wrong time for Knak to be a Thunderbird.  With the acquistion of Luke Prokop and Allan, the quick development of youngsters like Hyde Davidson and Bryce Pickford, the versatility of Ethan Mittelsteadt, there was just no ice time available for him.  

I think his adjustment to both the smaller ice surface in North America and the more physical style of play was the biggest culprit.  I think with another team, one that could afford to be more patient and give him more ice, he could develop his game here. Seattle just didn't have that for him this season. There were nine defensemen ahead of him on the roster. 

Seattle got to the WHL Championship Series last spring with the league's ninth best power play, and that was because of a strong second half.  They were lower than that most of the first half of the season in those power play rankings. Will history repeate itself?  I still think the one missing ingredient is a strong net front presence.  There were a lot of rebounds while they had the power play this weekend. They just didn't get to them.  This is where they really miss a player like Matt Rempe.

Seattle's goal differential after 29 games is +60. Only Saskatoon at +63 has a better goal differential at the break. Only 22 of Seattle's 127 goals have been scored on the power play.  That's border line insane. By comparison, 36 of Saskatoon's 125 goals are power play goals. 

The Thunderbirds don't have even one player in the top ten in league scoring. In fact their top scorer, Jared Davidson is 19th in scoring in the league.  Seattle has only two players in the top 30 (Crnkovic is 24th). Yet they are number two in goals scored, behind only Winnipeg (The Ice have played one more game). Winnipeg has three of the top 15 point producers.  What Seattle does have is depth, depth, depth.  

My T-Birds Three Stars for the past six games:

Third Star: D Jeremy Hanzel. With three of your top six defenseman unavailable for most of those six games, you need a veteran anchor on the back end.  Hanzel provided just that.  He chipped in with a goal, four assists and was +12, not to mention his solid work on the penalty kill. That's a solid six games.

Second Star: G Scott Ratzlaff.  Yeah, he'd like a do over on that play behind the net late in the game down in Portland, but that error aside, he's been terrific taking over the number one job in net in the absence of Thomas Milic.  He was 4-0-0-1 with a 1.57 GAA and .947 SVPCT in his five starts. Ratlzlaff is now second among goalies in the WHL with a 2.05 GAA and number one in the league with a .927 SVPCT.

First Star: C/W Gracyn Sawchyn.  He's playing his best hockey going into the break and that is saying something because he's been so good since the start of the season.  He picked up ten points in the six games (2g, 10a). He was nearly 50% in the faceoff circle (7/17).  He finished with a Gordie Howe hat trick in the 5-1 win up in Everett Saturday night. As assistant coach Matt Marquardt said, he has a little Henrik Rybinski in his game. When I think of Rybinski, I think of a relentless effort and that does indeed apply to Sawchyn.  

A Third of the Way

Seattle has played 22-games, essentially one third of the season.  They sit with a 17-4-1-0 record and have the second best winning percentage in the WHL.Their goal differential is +40. A good start, but there is a long way to go. A season ago after 22 games the Thunderbirds were 13-6-3-0. Their goal differential was 0.

The Thunderbirds started the month of November off well enough. They beat the Prince George Cougars November first at home, 6-3. It was a nice response after they had lost their first game of the season three nights earlier up  in PG.

But then Seattle lost two in a row. Not just any two losses in a row, but two losses to rival Portland. It was two losses that saw them outscored, 10-4.  It was two defeats that saw them surrender six power play goals while going just 2-for-17 with the man advantage.  Those two setbacks to the Winterhawks came at the end of a five game stretch where the Thunderbirds went 2-3 and gave up 21 goals. 

Were they showing cracks in their armor? Had their weak points been exposed?  Well, over their next nine games the T-Birds went 7-1-1-0. They allowed just 14-goals in those nine games and four of those came in one clunker of a loss, their 4-3 setback last Sunday in Kennewick to the Tri-City Americans. In games versus teams with winning records, Portland twice, Kamloops, Everett and Calgary they gave up a grand total of six goals.  Meanwile the Thunderbirds scored thirty times over that stretch. I'd say that is a terrific response to a few games of adversity.

And still, as we head toward the Christmas break, there is much room for improvement. While the penalty kill is starting to resemble the PK that finished second in the WHL last season, just a hair behind the eventual league champion Edmonton Oil Kings, the power play has not arrived at a level of consistency that the team needs. Even after a 3-for-6 night Saturday against Victoria, there are some wrinkles that need ironing out. 

The power play struggled a bit the first half of last season too though. I remember after the Svejkovsky acquisition, talking about how his addition would improve an inconsistent power play unit. It did as Seattle eventually finished ninth in that category a season ago.  That Svejkovsky trade didn't come until December 27th and because of Covid, Svejkovsky didn't play his first game with Seattle until Januaary 21st. 

There are seven games to play before the Christmas break. Four are one the road, including the next three. Three are at home.  Some of those games are going to be played with Seattle absent some of their best players.  Expect Kevin Korchinski, Nolan Allan, Reid Schaefer and Thomas Milic to be invited to Canada's World Junior selection camp.  That takes place December 9-12th. Expect some of those four, if not all of them, to be away from the Thunderbirds for nearly a month.  

It may be a month where Seattle has to weather the storm, so to speak. The goal is to get through to the other side still in a strong playoff position. The back end of the roster has gotten lots of ice time the first couple months of the season.  December and early January is where that has to pay off.

Seattle's strong November and positive start to December has been fueled by a number of elements but two things jump out the most.  The play in goal of Thomas Milic and Scott Ratzlaff and the acquisition of defensemen Luke Prokop and Nolan Allan.  

Yes, Prokop played just three games before suffering an injury that has put him on the sidelines, but don't underestimate the valuable leadership he has brought to the team.  He may not be playing but he is a voice in that room. Meanwhile Allan has been just what he has been advertised as, a strong, physical defender who is tough to play against. He can chip in offensively but his defensive zone game has been outstanding.  The Thunderbirds have killed off 30 of 32 penalties over the last eight games and Allan is a big reason why.

Meanwhile the WHL trade deadline is about a month away.  Are the Thunderbirds done dealing?  I highly doubt it. Now, there is still the possibility that Brad Lambert is sent to Seattle.  He will play World Juniors for Finland, then the NHL Winnipeg Jets will decide whether to keep him in the AHL with the Manitoba Moose or assign him to the T-Birds. 

The Moose have played 18 games this season. Lambert has played in 11 of those and has three points (1g, 2a) and is -7. He missed some time with an illness. He hasn't scored recently.  All three of his points came in his first four or five games. Winnipeg is under no obligation to send him to the T-Birds though.  He's eligible to stay all season in the AHL. I'm just spitballing but I think he sticks with the Moose.  Personally, I'd put his chances at coming to Seattle at about ten percent and that might be generous.

But what the deal Seattle made to acquire his rights this summer from Saskatoon tells me, is that the Thunderbirds were looking for another high impact forward. So if not Lambert, I expcect them to seek someone else.  The Thunderbirds have a first and second round draft pick in their back pocket. If Lambert comes, those picks head to Saskatoon.  If he doesn't they'll use them to acquire a different player. Maybe they don't find a trade partner. I think they will. We should know about the 10th of January.

My T-Birds three stars for the last nine games:

Third Star: W Kyle Crnkovic. He's currently riding a six game point streak with eight points over that span (4g, 4a). Three of his four goals have been game winners. He's a +10 since November 9th.

Second Star: D Kevin Korchinski.  Korchinski seems to be finding his groove.  He's doing what he does best. Get the puck on his stick and get it up ice and put the Thunderbirds on the attack.  He is now tied for the team lead in scoring with 28 points. He has back-to-back two assists games and his four assists shy of 100 in his WHL/T-birds career. He's only played 111 regular season games.

First Star: G Thomas Milic Milic is 5-0-1-0 over his last six starts and coming off his first shutout of the season. He hasn't allowed more than two goal in a over a month. His GAA in that time frame is 0.99 and his save percentage is .967