Taking a Liking Two

Not all wins are created equal but all wins are equal in value.  When you add them up, an 11-3 win is the same as a 2-1 win in overtime.  They are both worth two points in the standings.  Seatle has played Everett twice and won both times. Once 11-3 and once 2-1, and 2+2=4.

So you've gone through a slow schedule to start the season. You play just 11 games over a month's time.  Then boom, three games in four nights and the pace is picking up.  Screeeech!  Throw on the brakes!  You're back to playing once over the course of ten days. Hard to get game consistency or rythm from that. It is, as they say, what it is, but it will have an affect on your performance. 

It's like driving on I-5. You're zooming along at the speed limit and then you hit a patch of congestion in Federal Way and have to slow down. You have your foot on the accelerator and all of a sudden you have to pump the brakes. You'd rather be back on the gas pedal but you have to be patient until traffic clears. 

That and a few other things came together Saturday night to affect the Thunderbird effort against Everett. First, give the Silvertips their props. They are dealing with some injury issues. They weren't shorthanded but did have a few key pieces missing from the lineup.  They had a game plan and stuck to it, making it difficult for Seattle to get into the interior of the offensive zone much of the game.  

As the game wore on though, the Thunderbirds did a better job of getting traffic to the house. Give credit to Everett's goalie Braden Holt.  He held Seattle at bay as long as he could. In the end, Seattle was able to find a few cracks.

The midweek trade that brought Nolan Allan into the fold had an impact on Seattle's forward depth.  The trade of Gabe Ludwig and Brayden Dube was felt in that game.  Their departure left the T-Birds with just 12 forwards.  They did add Ty Hurley in a separate trade but he was not available Saturday night. The Thunderbirds essentially used two d-men (Mittelstadedt and Pickford) on their fourth line. In reality, Seattle just rolled three lines most of the night.

Getting Coster Dunn back from injury and inserting Hurley into the lineup will help but it's very possible between now and the trade deadline T-Birds GM Bil LaForge looks to acquire another impact forward.

The Thunderbirds played the game without another of their big, recent acquisitions as defenseman Luke Prokop was out of the lineup with a lower body injury. I don't mean to minimize Prokop's impact because, when healthy he's going to be a key player if Seattle goes deep this postseason. But what a game young 16 year old Hyde Davidson had, essentially stepping into Prokop's ice time. 

He won so many key puck battles in the defensive zone.  His stick, it seems, is always in the right position and he doesn't shy from physical contact. He also doesn't hesitate to join the offensive push.  Look, I'm no expert, I'm just an observer. But I've been around the organization and the league for over 20 years and I've seen players like Thomas Hickey, Brenden Dillon, Shea Theodore, Ethan Bear and Kevin Korchinski come through those doors. You knew when you watched them play early on in their T-birds careers you were watching something special.  Hyde Davidson is in that mold.  Bryce Pickford, while a different sytle of player, is in that mold as well.

When you have young talent like that already in the system, you can afford to trade draft picks. By the way, most of the picks Seattle has traded recently, were picks they acquired from other teams in trades made over the last four seasons. Like the pipeline, the draft pick cupboard is not bare.  Seattle has not mortgaged their future for a 2023 Cup run. The Thunderbirds still are in possession of first and second round picks in both 2023 and 2024.  

Props to Nolan Allan. Traded to Seattle midweek, he got in his car in Prince Albert and drove 18 hours across Western Canada to get to his new team. Most likely he was skating on fumes and adrenaline Saturday.  Once he settled in you saw how good he is at closing down on puck carriers.  

In the five games before the acquistion of Prokop and Allan Seattle had surrendered 21goals. In the four games since, they allowed just six and only five in regulation.  In the five games before the trades Seattle was shorthanded 21 times and gave up eight power play goals.  In the four games since the T-Birds have killed 12/13 penalties.  

Yes. The power play is struggling. Just 4 for their last 36.  There's is too much talent out their for that to keep up. Maybe the Crnkovic power play goal opens the dam.  At the very least, just keep shooting. Those power play goals are probably going to come off a rebound or a deflection. Once they get a fewe in, the confidence will return.  Right now I see too much hesitiation.

My T-Birds Three Stars for Saturday:

Third Star: D Kevin Korchinski.  I've actually loved his last two games.  Complete efforts in both the OT loss to Calgary and the OT win over Everett. He's controlling a lot of the play, carrying the puck up ice and being strong on the puck in the defensive zone. It appeared he was shadowing Everett's Olen Zellweger much of the night Saturday, especially when the Silvertips were on the power play. Zellweger is Everett's catalyst and a tough player to defend when he's on the puck. Korchinski did a good job of taking awasy his time and space.

Second Star: W Kyle Crnkovic. It had been five games since Crnkovic had scored a goal and he came into Saturday's game with just one goal in his last nine.  That's the life of a goal scorer. It's a streaky business. Hopefully his power play goal starts another goal scoring streak. It wasn't just that he scored a goal, but the way he scored it, slipping through the defense and then taking enough off the shot to offer a change of pace that froze the goalie. He nearly scored a gain, late inthe game, shorthanded.  Don't let that distract from that fact he played a 200 foot game and created a number of neutral zone turnovers.

First Star: G Thomas Milic.  Milic led the Seattle offense with....two assists? Yep, that's right. he had an assist on both Seattle goals. He allowed just one goal against on 22 shots and it was a bit of a flukey one at that.  Only four goals allowed in his last three starts, stopping 78 of 82 shots.  Remember when his goals against average was close to 4.00 and his save percentage around .890? Well things are more Mili like at 2.80 and .906.

Corner Turned?

In an overtime loss, did the Thunderbirds finally find their identity? Did we see Seattle play with the type of intensity that was so key to their successful 2021-22 season?  Time will tell but a good portion of that game Saturday versus Calgary reminded me of the second half of last season.

It was relentless, shift to shift, pressure.  It was a majority of the puck posession. They constantly disrupted Calgary on their breakouts, They slowed the Hitmen entry into the offensive zone. Over a stretch from the start of the second period until Seattle scored their third period goal, the T-Birds had a 21-4 shot edge and it was no mirage. In fact, if not for a few posts and crossbars, it would have been even more lopsided. The Calgary goalie stole that game. 

A slow start by Seattle may have cost them the W too. The Thunderbirds first period was sluggish and Calgary took advantage to score the games's first goal.  Seattle shook off the bus legs and were fairly dominate the rest of the game.  Had Seattle started the game the way they started the second period we're probably talking about a 1-0 win rather than a 2-1 OT loss.

Travel affects every team in the league. Seattle was coming off two long bus rides to Kamloops and Spokane.  It's just the nature of Junior hockey. But this was the perfect storm if you will. Calgary had traveled west and was in Kent Thursday.  They hadn't played since the previous Friday. They were here resting up while the Thunderbirds traveled back and forth to Spokane. The Hitmen were riding a five game winning streak and a hot goalie. There will be a point this season where the T-Birds will get that advantage but the schedule gave a distinct edge to the Hitmen even though it was a Seattle home game.

Zero for eight on the power play and just 3-for-their-last-31 with the man advantage. That's a main culprit in the Thunderbirds being just .500 (3-3-1-0) over their last seven games.  You probably think that can't be so with all the fire power on this roster.  But Seattle went through a similar stretch with their power play last year at this time. It's just something they need to work out. Remember too, Seattle wsa without one of their top power play weapons for three games in Jared Davidson.  That will disrupt your power play success.

They fixed it a year ago with the acquistion of Lukas Svejkovsky. The trade for  Luke Prokop should help get the power play on track this season.  Remember, since he joined the team Wednesday in Kamloops, Seattle has had just one full, non game day practice due to their travel schedule.  Once Prokop gets more fully integrated into the systems the power play (knock on wood) should improve and they have a week of practices ahead before their next game.

Another similarity to last season? The goals Seattle is allowing.  The last four goals surrendered in regulation have all been, essentially breakaway goals.  The Thunderbirds are not giving up a lot of scoring chances, but the ones they are allowing are too high quality. I remember talking about this very thing a year ago.  Seattle tightened that up when Sam Knazko arrived.  Prokop should help fix that area too.

Don't skip over that point though. Seattle has only allowed four goals in regulation in their last three games.  Things are improving as the young back end gets more and more playing time.  They held Kamloops to one goal Wednesday. In their next game, the Blazers scored six against Kelowna. Seattle limited Spokane to just two goals Friday night.  The Chiefs had scored seven in their previous game before losing to the T-birds, an 8-7 overtime setback to Portland. Then, after losing to Seattle the Chiefs but up seven again in their very next game, Saturday versus Tri-City.

One common demonitor over that stretch? Goaltending.  Seattle goalies Thomas Milic and Scott Ratzlaff have been exceptional. Each earned a star in their road wins. I'm biased but I think Seattle has the best 1-2 punch in net in the Western Conference.  

Big picture? Seattle earned five of six points in the three games in four nights played this past week. Two of those games were on the road and there were a lot of miles in between all three games.  They played each of those games with players missing due to injury or away from the team.  This is why I think this team is starting to find their identity. 

Seattle needs the Mekai Sanders we saw Saturday.  He was flying, he was creating chances, he was delivering big checks.  Remember, he missed eight months. it took a couple of games but it appears Mekai is back!  Get Gabe Ludwig and Coster Dunn back form injury, the return of Tij Iginla from the U-17 World Hockey Challenge and Seattle's depth is restored

My T-birds Three Stars for the Week.

Third Star. C/W Sam Popowich. Three really good efforts in all three games. He had a Gordie Howe hat trick for the week with a goal, an assist and a fighting major. He is such a key piece of the puzzle for the T-birds because he can play effectively on all situations.  

Second Star: G Thomas Milic.  He was the show Wednesday in Kamloops, making 38 saves in the overtime win, then went toe-to-toe with Calgary's Brayden Peters in the OT loss Saturday. A couple of crucial third period saves allowed Seattle to earn a point. 

First Star: C/W Jared Davidson.  He missed three games due to injury but returned Friday and picked up where he left off. He is now riding a ten game point streak (7g, 14a).  He is tied for seventh in the league in scoring but of the top scorers only Logan Stankoven has played fewer games (11 to Davidson's 12). He's averaging just under two points per game.  

 

Watch for Falling Rocks

 You earn you losses just as much as you earn your wins and no question the Thunderbirds earned each of their three losses on the season, just as they earned their ten wins.  

Not too sound too cliche but the T-bird right now have to believe in the phrase, what doens't kill us makes us stronger.  Are they disappointed that they've dropped three of their last four games? Of course. But they knew there would be bumps along the way.  The road was not going to be clear from here to the playoffs next spring.  They're still 10-3 despite still looking for their A game.

It is a process. Just like last season was a process.  Right now the team is in the exact spot they were at this time last season.  They had a similar record and were in third place in the U.S. Division behind Everett and Portland.  I'm not saying things will go exactly as they did in 2021-22 but it does show you that it is a long season and how you start isn't how you'll finish.

This team is currently the yougest team in the WHL. They have just two 20-year olds on the roster and only one of them played this weekend.  They are playing three rookies on the blueline almost every game. They are going to take their lumps.  Of the five youngest rosters in the league, only Seattle, the youngest of them all, has a winning record. Wait until they have a half season under their belt. they're only going to get better.

One thing Seattle has done in the past decade is let their young players play.  They throw them to the wolves and let them learn on the job.  It will make they that much better by season's end and into the playoffs.  

The Thunderbirds special teams are definitely out of sorts right now. The power play certainly missed Jared Davidson this weekend. But 2-for-15 on the weekend, with both goals scored while skating 5-on-3, is not just the result of Davidson's absence.  Shooting opportunities were passed up.  Don't be afraid to take the shot because you're worried it might get blocked. So many power play goals are scored off rebounds or deflections. Th esliver lining is that they generated 15 power play chances against Portland.

The penalty kill was tops in the WHL a season ago. But some key components from that top ranked PK have moved on.  Seattle doesn't have Henrik Rybinski or Ryan Gottfried any more. So it might take time for players to settle into those roles.

Seattle had a very defined leadership group last season.  I said at the end of last season's playoff run that their hasn't been a better captain in my tenure with the Thunderbirds than Tyrel Bauer.  But Rybinski and Gottfried were big parts of that leadership group as well. You don't replace that overnight.  It's is very possible that a little adversity will bring a leader or two forward for this group.

My T-Birds three Stars for the Weekend:

Third Stars: The goalies.  Seattle allowed ten goals in two games but with the exception of maybe the first goal Friday in Portland, you can't lay blame at the feet of Scott Ratzlaff and Thomas Milic.  Seattle continues to give up way to many ten bell scoring chances against. These two are doing all they can to give the team in front of them a chance. They're just being forced into making too many highlight reel saves.

Second Star: Sam Popowich. Seattle's Swiss Army knife.  He's all effort.  Can play up and down the lineup and be on the ice in all situations.  He reminds me of Donovan Neuls in that regard.  Teams don't win without a few Popoiwich's on the roster.

First Star: Mekai Sanders. Welcome back!  After an eight month rehabilitation he's back on the ice and playing with the same controlled abandoned that makes him such an effective player.  the orginal prognosis was for him to be out potentially a year.  He put in the work to get back four months early.  His return will make the Thunderbirds an even deeper forward group.

Cougin' it?

 I’ll be honest, I wasn’t disappointed when the Thunderbirds two road games in Prince George last season got cancelled due to the pandemic. I dread that bus ride.  Yep, even more then the bus rides out to Alberta and Saskatchewan. I’m just not a fan. I don’t know exactly what it is because at times the scenery is spectacular. I just dread it every season.  But here’s the funny thing, I actually like Prince George. 

It's a nice city and you run into the friendliest residents. But more importantly, the CN Centre has, in my humble opinion, the best pressbox in the WHL. Great sightlines, enough space in the booth, close to the action and easy access from there to the locker room. I rate it a 9.8 out of 10.  The only reason I don’t give it a 10 is because the stream out of the faucet in the pressbox men’s room comes out at a 45-degree angle and the water pressure is that of a firehose. I can’t believe that I’m the only one who has come out of that men’s room with water all over the front of his pants.

I don’t sleep through the night on the long ride home. It’s more like a series of naps.  There is no four-lane interstate on most of this trek. It is instead, a mostly winding two lane highway and you pass through a number of towns which necessitates the bus occasionally slowing down and, in some cases, stopping at a red light or a stop sign. It is these sudden changes in the speed of the bus, along with the curves in the road, that will usually jar me out of a light sleep. 

So, I get to see the bright lights of such British Columbia hamlets as Quesnel, 100 Mile House, Williams Lake and Cache Creek. Then there is the driver switch at Hope, with a Tim Horton’s stop for good measure. And once you get to that point the border is not that far away, so there’s no sense in trying to get in another forty winks.  

So by the time I get back to the rink in Kent, my brain is pretty much in a fog, or at least more of a fog than usual. 

I think I’ve sufficiently recovered from the bus ride back from Prince George though to coherently put down some thoughts on the two games this past weekend against the Cougars. 

The two games up at the CN Centre were a mixed bag.  Once Seattle got going Friday there were much the better team and the final score of 5-4 wasn’t indicative of the way the Thunderbirds controlled most of that contest.  The Cougars scored a couple of times in the final minute, including a 6-on-4 goal with one second left to make it look more respectable up on the scoreboard.

The narrative from a Prince George perspective after that game seemed to be that they gave the Thunderbirds, ranked number three in the CHL Top Ten Poll, too much respect.  I wonder if, after beating Prince George in Friday’s game, if Seattle didn’t give the Cougars enough respect in the Saturday rematch?

Seattle was flat all night in the second game.  As head coach Matt O’Dette said, they were out of sync and didn’t execute the game plan.  The Cougars were a determined team. They wanted to show they can hang with the Thunderbirds.  Still, it was a 1-1 game late in the second period and a very winnable game for Seattle.  The T-birds just didn’t elevate their game.  

They did have a better third period, when compared to the first two, outshooting Prince George 12-5.  Cougars’ goalie Ty Young denied Seattle on a number of grade A scoring chances.  And when Seattle couldn’t find the back of the net Prince George capitalized on their chances and Seattle miscues.

As O’Dette has said on a number of occasions this season, Seattle has a certain identity they want to play with. It’s what got them to the WHL Championship Series last spring.  Despite the 9-0 start, we haven’t seen that T-birds identity consistently through the first month of the season and it was definitely lacking in the loss.

But credit Prince George. They were focused on handing Seattle their first loss.  They played to their identity in earning the win.  They have a couple of high-end forwards who were their best players.  Their goaltending is top notch.  They are very much like Vancouver, a team that gave Seattle three tough games earlier this season. 

In the end the Thunderbirds are 9-1 to start the season despite not hitting their stride yet. The nine-game winning streak to start the campaign is already longer than any winning streak over the last decade.  They are going to get better as the season progresses.    But there will be bumps in the road. It is how they respond to those road bumps that will reveal this team’s true character.

My T-birds Three Stars for the Weekend:

Third Star: D Niko Tsakumis. He didn’t record a point in either game but he stood out for me both nights because he constantly made the right play with the puck.  Seattle has a very young group of defenseman and the more they play the better they get.  Tsakumis’ play this past weekend will earn him more ice time going forward.

Second Star: D Jeremy Hanzel. The elder statesman among Seattle’s defensemen.  In my estimation, the 19-year-old has been the T-birds most consistent blueliner through the first ten games. Like Tsakumis, he made the right play with the puck all weekend.  I can see a similar path for him as with former T-bird Brenden Dillon. Like Dillon, Hanzel wasn’t drafted into the WHL. So far, like Dillon, Hanzel hasn’t been drafted into the NHL, although that could change next summer. Like Dillon, I think some NHL team will give him a chance.

First Star: C Jared Davidson. It’s crazy to think, that on his way to a 42-goal season last year, Davidson didn’t score his first goal until game nine, meaning those 42 goals came in just 58 games (he missed one game due to injury). Through nine games this season, he already has scored seven times, including three over the weekend in Prince George. He is on pace for 52 goals.