The Marathon Begins

One down, 67 to to go. The Seattle Thunderbirds opened the 2022-23 season with a road win, beating the Vancouver Giants in a shootout, 4-3, Friday up in Langley, B.C. 

Seattle accomplished the win with a roster deplete of a good chunk of their firepower.  Well over 100 goals and 300 points off last year's roster were missing from the lineup as the Thunderbirds played shorthanded with six key players still away at NHL training camps. It's a good thing the WHL is slow walking the start of the season. Seattle plays just twice the first two weeks.  

I was told not to expect the majority of those missing players back in time for the home opener next Saturday. I would suspect their NHL teams would like to get many of those players into at least one preseason NHL game.  

I like a player who takes accountability without even being asked. I ran into T-Birds goalie Scott Ratzlaff on his way to the team's postgame meal after the opening night win.  Ratzlaff got the win with 25 saves and two more in the shootout. Without even being asked though, he offered up that it wasn't his best game and that he felt he was trying to do too much.  I did think he struggled at times with what is usually for him a strength, his puck control, but he also made enough timely saves to help the team to victory.

It's good to know that he holds himself to such a high standard that he's not going to be satisfied even if he got the W. He only allowed three goals in regulaton and two of those were of the power play variety, but he left me with the impression he wanted to to get right back to work at that moment and improve on his performance. 

Vamcouver played the game without their number one offensive weapon, Ottawa Senators 2021 second rounder Zack Ostapchuk, but they still had the older team on the ice and were able to dress three 20 year olds (Seattle had just one). The game still had a bit of a preseason feel to it with plenty of rookies and newcomers up and down the rosters of both teams. Fifty-seven percent of the Thunderbirds lineup was age 17 or younger. Seventy percent of the Giants lineup was age 18 or older.

If you are Seattle though, you have to feel pretty good that you could go on the road with essentially your B team and get the two points. Any points gained with this lineup in such flux is a bonus for the Thunderbirds here in the early going. I mean, their first line last night was what essentially would be their third line when they have their full slate of players available. Yet that line of Kyle Crnkovic, Gracyn Sawchyn and Nico Myatovic, was the best line on the ice last night.

Seattle dressed four rookies among their six defensemen. Jeremy Hanzel, with 87 games played, was the veteran of that group at age 19. 18-year old Easton Kovacs, he of the 58 WHL games, was the second most seasoned blue liner for Seattle. Prior to Friday night the trio of Niko Taskumis (11), Bryce Pickford (2) and Hyde Davidson (1) had a combined 14 games of regular season WHL action under their belts.  Kai Knak was making his WHL debut. The T-Birds also had 17 year old rookie defenseman Ethan Mittelstaedt in the lineup but he was used as a tenth forward. 

Despite the inexperience, they held their own.  They made mistakes, showed signs of progress and did enough good to help create the win. 16 year olds Davidson and Pickford, a pair of 2021 second round draft picks, hold a lot of promise, but they are just 16. Even when Kevin Korchinski returns they are still a very young D corps. Will adding some experience on the back end be the area the Thunderbirds look to address between now and the trade deadline?  Do they think Ty Bauer is coming back?  Questions still to be answered.

How many times in his coaching tenure with the Thunderbirds has Matt O'Dette had an incomplete roster, yet still managed to compete every night and, quite often, get his team to victory lane?  Last season Seattle dealt with a ton of injuries, yet by June there they were in the league championship series. Last night he's got six of his best players away from the team. They get the win anyway. A coach can't go out their and stop pucks or score goals. He can't kill penalties, but he can give the players the tools to do that. 

One of those tools is preparation and more often the T-birds are well prepared every night. Another is motivation and O'Dette gets his players to believe in each other, to believe in the systems they employ and to believe in themselves. There's a saying that hard work trumps talent, but if you can combine talent and hard work, then you have something.  O'Dette gets the most from his team because he gets them to combine their talent with hard work.  He won't let them take shortcuts.

Opening night was a prime example. With so many players not available the players that were here could have gone off script, strayed from the systems.  It didn't happen.  He put young players in positions to succeed.  O'Dette has had his staff turn completely over since his first day as head coach. Gone are assistant coaches Kyle Hagel and Castan Sommers, replaced by Matt Marquardt and Carter Cochrance. Brad Guzda has taken over for Ian Gordon as goalie coach.  Yet the process remains the same. 

It's tough to be the next coach, after the previous coach has pushed the franchise up the mountain top to a WHL title, as Steve Konowalchuk did. But O'Dette has put his own stamp on this team and he's a big reason they went as far as they did last spring and a big reason for any success they have this season.  Don't short change him because of the talent he has on the roster. Someone still has to conduct the orchestra. Give the conductor his due.

My T-Bird Three Stars for Opening Night:

Third Star: W Kyle Crnkovic.  Just one assist but he was absolutely robbed twice on the power play. He finished at +2. Brought here for his offense, he led the team with five shots on goal, then buried his shootout attempt. When Seattle needed a shift to settle the team down, he was out there. As the oldest player in the lineup, he brought a calming enfluence with him to the ice.

Second Star: W Nico Myatovic.  Building off a strong rookie campaign, Myatovic is off to a terrific start, registering a goal and an assist opening night.  The coaches always raved about his work ethic last season and even though it was a short one, it looked like he took that work ethic to the offseason.  He looks bigger and stronger then just three months ago.  NHL scouts are taking notice.  

First Star: C Gracyn Sawchyn.  As debuts go, it doesn't get any better.  A goal, an assist, +2 and the shootout winner that made the highlight reels.  Seattle used a second round pick to obtain his rights from Red Deer. They still might have gotten away with highway robbery.  He's probably worth more.  Try to peel your eyes away from the offensive numbers and watch his complete 200 foot game.

So Begins the Waiting Game

With a 6-5 shootout win over Everett Saturday in Kennewick, the 2022 preseason has come to an end for the Thunderbirds. Next up, the regular season which begins Friday on the road with a game in Langley against the Vancouver Giants.

Seattle finished the preseason with a 4-0 record. they won via a shutout. They won be coming from behind. They were winners in overtime and they won with a shootout.  They relied heavily on their youth, particularly in the last game where four of the five regulation goals were scored by players going into their 17 year old seasons, including a pair of rookies.  Four of their goals against Everett came from players who were not on the roster fulltime a season ago.

They were able to win all four games without taxing any of their goalies.  All four signed goalies got a start, played the distance and got a win. At no point did the Thunderbirds dress more than one 20 year old during the preseason schedule.  As a result younger players like Coster Dunn, Gracyn Sawchyn and Sawyer Mynio were able to step up and shine through. 

They accomplished that unblemished preseason record with a young defensive corps.  The oldest d-man on the roster, 19 year old Jeremy Hanzel, played in just one of the four games.  The Thunderbirds played the preseason with a blueline group consisting primarily of 16 and 17 year olds.  

With many of their most potent offensive weapons resting or away at NHL camps, the T-birds still scored five goals per game. Again, winning in the preseason doesn't mean a heck of a whole lot, except winning is a habit coaches want to instill in their players and the preseason is a good place to start the process.

And now we wait. We wait not just for the regular season to get going or for that home opener the following week, but we also wait for the answers to a number of burning questions. First and foremost, the status of Brad Lambert.

As you know, at the end of June General Manager Bil Laforge sent a number of draft picks, including a conditional 2023 first rounder, to the Saskatoon Blades to acquire Lamberts rights.  Then in July, Lambert was drafted in the first round by the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.  He is currently in their training camp. 

Lambert does have options.  He played pro hockey last season in Finland and could return there, although he has not signed a contract with any of the Finnish teams. He could have a terrific camp with the Jets and make their roster and play in the NHL.  He's also eligible for the American Hockey League, so a spot on the roster of the Manitoba Moose is a possibility. Playing in Kent with the Thunderbirds is the fourth option.

An official with the Jets made a comment after the NHL Draft this summer, that seemed to indicate their preference would be that Lambert come play for the Thunderbirds. But that was two months ago. Things certainly could have changed in the interim.  We'll see.  If he eventually does make his way to Kent, don't be surprised if Lambert sticks around Winnipeg for a while first, either with the Jets or with the AHL club, the Moose. All of it is out of the Thunderbirds control.

What happens if Lambert doesn't end up with the T-birds? Well that leaves the team with an open Import slot (maybe Sam Knazko comes back as a 20 year old?) and the conditional 2023 first round draft pick reverts back to the Thunderbirds and they have plenty of ammunition to go make a trade for a high end forward at the January 2023 WHL trade deadline.  Either way, I see it as a win-win situation for Seattle.

Another question that needs answering is how long do NHL clubs hold on to recently drafted T-birds?  For instance, do the Chicago Blackhawks or Edmonton Oilers give extended looks to Kevin Korchinski and Reid Schaefer?  I woud suspect both those clubs want to see those players, each a first round draft pick, participate in at least one NHL preseason game.

Meanwhile Seattle currently has just two 20 year olds listed on their roster.  They came into training camp with just one, Jared Davidson, then traded Conner Roulette to Saskatoon for 20 year old Kyle Crnkovic.  Assuming Davidson is back soon from NHL training camp with the Montreal Canadians (he's unsigned, so no reason to think he won't be, knock on wood) that still leaves a spot on the roster for one more 20 year old. 

My guess is the Thunderbirds are in a holding pattern with that third 20 year old spot, in the off chance that either Ty Bauer or Matt Rempe are returned by their respective NHL teams.  Both Bauer and Rempe are signed and thus eligible for either the AHL or the ECHL, but you never know.  Back in 2017 Seattle wasn't anticipating the New York Rangers returning signed 20 year old Ryan Gropp to Kent, but they did and Gropp helped the T-birds capture the Chynoweth Cup that season.

What if both are returned? Then Seattle has a problem, a good problem, but still a problem as they would have too many 20 year olds.  Should that happend, they most likely facilitate a trade of one of those players and recoup some draft capital. The fact Seattle traded for Crnkovic makes me think the T-birds aren't counting on those players being returned. At least not both of them.

If neither are returned then what?  How long does Laforge roll with just two 20 year olds in the lineup? I think he feels confident in his roster that he can wait out the situation.  Once he's fairly confident that neither Bauer or Rempe are coming back, I believe he'll look for someone to fill that last spot.  There will be a few options as more than one WHL team is currently carrying more than three 20 year olds.  

The only question is whether the T-birds trade to fill that last overage spot or claim someone off waivers.  But in the end I think they'll want three overagers because when you have a team built for a long playoff run, you want that veteran leadership both on and off the ice.

Preseason Musings

It's only preseason where, in the big scheme of things, wins and losses don't really matter, but when you want winning to be your culture, it matters a lot.

The T-birds went to Everett for three games in three days of preseason action and came away with three wins. They did it using a slightly older lineup and they did it by using a slightly younger lineup.  They weren't perfect. It's hard to be when you're mixing up your roster each game, but they found a way to compete, execute and win each game. 

The wins didn't help them climb the standings or secure a playoff spot. There are no points for wins in the preseason. No cup will be lifted after the last preseason game next weekend. The real win this time of the year is when you learn how to win, and a lot of young players learned how to win at the WHL level in those three games in Everett.

Seattle will enter the 2022-23 regular season with a lot of experience missing off their back end. 20 year old defenseman Ryan Gottfried has graduated out of the program and both Ty Bauer and Samuel Knazko appear headed to the AHL, rather than back to Seattle for their 20 year old season.  Chase Lacombe was not brought back for what would have been his 20 year old year. 

Seattle's oldest returning defenseman is 19 year old Jeremy Hanzel. Seattle did select Kai Knak in the Import draft and traded for Easton Kovacs.  Combined, those two 18 year olds have 57 games of WHL experience and it all belongs to Kovacs.  So some of Seattle's youngest defenseman are going to be called upon to play.  

Now, 2022 second round draft pick Kaleb Hartmann is not elible to play this season because he's just 15. but the T-birds did select a couple of defensemen in the second round of the 2021 draft and both of those 16 year olds, Hyde Davidson and Bryce Pickford, could find their way onto the opening night roster. Each of them played in all three games this weekend and they look like top end talent.  Combined, they earned a goal and two assists and were +6 in the three games in Everett.  

But there are a couple of other young defensemen who might be flying under the radar. Both are entering their 17 year old season. Both were picked in the 2020 draft.  We didn't get to see Niko Tsakumis this weekend as he's dealing with a minor injury.  Last season in 11 games with the T-birds he earned two points (1g, 1a) and finished +3.

Ethan Mittelstaedt got into 16 games last season as a 16 year old, scoring a pair of goals and finishing at +3 as well.  Mittelstaedt played in two of the three preseason games this weekend in Everett and I really like what I saw from him.  He plays like he believes in himself.  He reads the ice well.  He's strong on the puck.  He plays with physicality. He ended the weekend with two assists. 

All of those d-men will get plenty of playing time next weekend to state their case.  Both Kevin Korchinski and Hanzel are headed to NHL training camps. Korchinski of course, was the 7th overall pick in this summer's NHL Draft, selected by the Blackhawks. he'll head to Chicago this week.  It appears Hanzel has an invite to camp with the Edmonton Oilers.

If you had any questions about why the T-birds traded for Kyle Crnkovic, and I know some of you did, because I got asked a lot, those questions were answered this weekend.  Yes, he's an offensive playmaker, but he plays a 200 foot game.  He essentially takes the role Lukas Svejkovsky had last season. He'll play in all situations and in particular, be a key component to the power play  

But why give up Conner Roulette? Why not keep him and still acquire Crnkovic?  Well, because the T-birds also added 17 year old Gracyn Sawchyn in the offseason. His hockey IQ is off the charts. Again, it is only preseason but I'd be shocked if, in what will be a deep 2023 NHL Draft, Sawchyn isn't selected in one of the first two rounds. He has the potential to be that good.  He really stood out in the two games he played up in Everett this past weekend.

Meanwhile, the hopes are high that Brad Lambert comes to Kent after training camp with the Winnipeg Jets. He's a first round NHL pick and right away is probably one of your top three forwards. You've got Davidson, Schaefer and Ciona to go in that top group as well. And you have Sam Oremba and Nico Myatovic, both ready to take big steps this season in their first year of NHL draft eligibility.  

Sam Popowich is the team's Swiss Army knife forward. You can play him up and down the lineup. Add to that, at some point Mekai Sanders will be back in the lineup and he'll need minutes too. Gabe Ludwig and Coster Dunn are versatile third/fourth line guys. At age 16, Tij Iginla has to play in two-thirds of the games per WHL rules. Seattle may also want to keep Simon Lovsin around. The 16 year old showed well up at Angel of the Winds Arena.

As talented as Roulette is, there was a real possibility that he wasn't going to be among Seattle's top six forwards and that wouldn't be fair to Roulette, who is going into his 19 year old season and trying to earn an NHL contract. In Saskatoon he'll get the first line minutes he needs. If he had stayed with the T-birds he may have been relegated to the third line.  And if at some point the T-birds feel they need to add another high end forward for a long playoff run, GM Bil Laforge will not hesitate, but for now, I think he feels pretty good about his group, even without Roulette.

Best game of the weekend? For me it was Sunday's. The T-birds iced their youngest roster of the weekend. Many of those young players were playing in their third game in as many days. Seattle fell behind 2-0 after the first period to Tri-City.  But they stuck to the game plan, they didn't stray off their good habits and won in overtime, 5-4.

Before the weekend action kicked off, Seattle signed 2021 draft pick, goalie Spencer Michnik, to a standard WHL Player Agreement. Michnik got the start Sunday and earned the win.  The stat line may not look anything but ordinary with 26 saves on 30 shots. But two of the four goals allowed were power play goals including a 5-on-3 score.  I thought he settled in and played well. He's just 16 and is only going to get better. He's listed at 6'2" which already makes him the tallest goalie on the roster.  I think he has room to grow and would not be surprised if he's 6'4" or taller before he's done sprouting. 

Post Training Camp Vibes

While there are still many unanswered questions about the Thunderbirds heading into the 2022-23 preseason portion of the hockey calendar, there is one question answered following this past weekend's training camp. The Thunderbirds continue to do a masterful job of scouting and keeping the cupboard full so they can acheive their stated goal of consistently competing for championships. Has Seattle spent some draft capital recently to acquire players like Lukas Svejkovsy, Brad Lambert and Kyle Crnkovic? Yes, but there is still plenty of talent in the pipeline.

Because of Covid, this was the first training camp for the T-birds 2021 draft class. But three players from that draft, Tij Iginla, Hyde Davidson and Bryce Pickford, have already played in meaningful games for Seattle. In fact Pickford even suited up and played in eight playoff games last spring. Iginla probably would have made it into the lineup for a postseason game or two had he not been dealing with a minor injury.

At training camp all three of those players looked the part of signed WHL prospects taken high in that 2021 draft by the T-birds.  Simon Lovsin, who like Davidson and Pickford, was taken in the second round of that draft last December, is signed as well. He's going to get a long look during the preseason games in Everett and Kennewick. But if training camp is any indication, he's going to be a solid player for the T-birds.

We're a bit spoiled at the moment with the goaltending tandem of Scott Ratzlaff and Thomas Milic. Seattle doesn't have a signed, young goalie though. Well, I guess technically Ratzlaff is just entering his 17 year old season, so he qualifies as young by WHL standards but he plays like a seasoned vet.  But at some point Seattle will have to address the future at that position. The T-birds did draft Spencer Michnik in the fifth round last December and picked Aaron Sachs in round two of the 2022 U.S. Prospects Draft as well. So it will be interesting to keep an eye on those two or any other goalie prospect on their radar.  

Five other members of the 2021 Thunderbirds draft were at camp to begin making their case they belong in a Seattle jersey at some point. 

Meanwhile, Seattle has already signed their top three picks from the 2022 draft. General Manager Bil Laforge actually moved up six spots in round one of the draft, surrendering a third round pick in the process, to take Braeden Cootes tenth overall.  I can see why. Cootes was a standout at training camp and even earned third star honors in the annual Blue-White game. Right behind him are a pair of second round selections, Kaleb Hartmann and Kazden Mathies.

In recent drafts, Seattle has been able to harvest top talent in mid to late rounds. Reid Schaefer is the latest example. Schaefer was selected in the eighth round of the 2018 WHL Draft only to go in the first round of this summer's NHL Draft.Who among the 2021 and 2022 Thunderbirds drafts will be the next Schaefer?

What is Seattle getting in Gracyn Sawchyn? Sawchyn was the first ever player selected in a WHL U.S. Prospects Draft, chosen by Red Deer back in 2020. The T-birds used a second round pick to aquire his rights and then signed him to a standard WHL Player Agreement this summer.

I think when NHL Central Scouting Services puts out their Ones to Watch list for the 2023 NHL Draft, Sawchyn will be listed as either an A or B skater.  Seeing him on the ice for the first time at camp this past weekend, it is easy to see he is a highly skilled player. He's going to be an offensive option in this lineup. But what I liked about his game is that he has a little sandpaper to him, some grit and can be a bit of an agitator.  

A couple of other players really intrigue me.  One is Brayden Dube.  Dube was a second round selection of the T-birds in the 2020 draft. He was the last cut coming out of camp last fall.  He has always been a point producer at every level he's played.  in 2019-20 he put up 130 points in 36 games at the U15 level.  Last season with the Dauphin Kings of the MJHL, playing with an older roster, the 16 year old put up big points, 46 in 49 games playing Junior A.  I think that point production at those other levels can translate for him in the WHL. 

The other player is Coster Dunn. Dunn was taken by Seattle in the seventh round of that same draft that saw Dube go in round two.  He played 11 games last season for the T-birds and showed flashes as he finished with two goals and one assist.  He looked so much more confident in training camp this past weekend. His game reminds me a little bit of Nico Myatovic (himslef a sixth round 2019 pick, by the way).  Maybe not as strong yet, but like Myatovic he posesses a huge upside and is a willing student. 

Let's not forget the forgotten man in all of this, Mekai Sanders.  Sanders is doing some skating but not able yet to take contact as he rehabs from the injury that cost him much of the second half of last season. He's told me he is ahead of schedule. I initially heard late December or early January for Sanders to get back in the lineup, so if he's back late November or early December, that's a huge boost for the T-birds.  I had a scout tell me that if Seattle had Sanders in the lineup during the WHL Championship Series against Edmonton, they might have been able to get that series to Game Seven.  That's how much they value his presence in the lineup. He's fast, he's physical and has a non-stop motor.

There are other players to watch as we go through preseason the next two weekends. Can newcomers Easton Kovacs and Kai Knak help solidify a very young D group. Are Sam Oremba and Sawyer Mynio ready to take the big step up from 16 year old rookies to second year players, as they enter their first season of NHL Draft eligibility?  At camp Oremba sure looked like he added another gear to his skating ability.

If you're trying to piece together a roster that will carry Seattle through the 2022-23 season, remember teams usually carry 13-14 forwards and 7-8 defenseman along with their two goalies. I would guess at the start of the season they will carry some extra players, as they await the return of players from NHL camps, but at some point the roster will be pared down to 23.  There are some hard decision to be made, for sure.

We start to answer a lot of these questions next weekend in Everett. Hockey is back!