What a great two days for the Thunderbirds with four players, and a potential fifth player, selected in the 2022 NHL Entry Draft in Montreal. Kevin Korchinski going seventh overall to Chicago makes him the highest drafted T-bird since Thomas Hickey was taken fourth overall by the LA Kings back in 2007. Reid Schaefer goes from late round WHL draft pick to late first round NHL draft pick, ending up with his hometown team, the Edmonton Oilers.
If Brad Lambert, who was chosen 30th overall by Winnipeg, ends up in Seattle next season that would give the T-birds three NHL first round picks on their roster. Then there is Jordan Gustafson, who I think was a steal by Vegas, going in round three. A complete, 200 foot, all situations player.
The feel good story of the draft has to be Jared Davidson, picked by the Montreal Canadians at the top of round five. Davidson came to training camp with Seattle in 2018 as a 16 year old camp invitee. Never drafted or listed by the T-birds, he was invited to camp partly at the suggestion of the son of the T-birds goalie coach at the time, Ian Gordon. You see, at age 15, Davidson was the captain of a team that Gordon's son played on and Gordon's son suggested his dad bring Davidson to Seattle for a look see.
So, when you add in Conner Roulette and Lucas Ciona, Seattle goes into next season with as many as seven NHL Draft picks on the roster. I know what you're thinking. Well, the T-birds were a young team in 2021-22. They surprised everyone by advancing to the WHL Championship Series before falling in six games to the veteran laden, NHL draft pick heavy, and built for a title, Edmonton Oil Kings. With all that playoff experience now under their belts and with so many players returning, surely this means that Seattle will be the favorites in the WHL next season, right? A straight shot to another long postseason run in 2022-23!
Tap the brakes folks. A contender? For sure. One of the favorites? Most likely. A sure fire lock for another Championship Series appearance? Not quite.
First, while the Thunderbirds return a terrific core group of players that won the Western Conference Championship, their roster losses, while minimal, are significant. Chiefly, they lose their second and fourth leading point producers in Lukas Svejkovsky and Henrik Rybinski. Together those two combined for 105 points in just 80 games (43g, 62a). That's 1.3 points per game out of the lineup.
And while Ryan Gottfried wasn't a significant point producer, he was a steady presence on the blue line, a top penalty killer on a unit that finished second in the league in that category, and a terrific shot blocker. In addition, do not underestimate the leadership all three of those 20 year olds provided. To a lot of the young players on the team, Gottfried was looked upon as their "big brother".
Seattle finished the year with just five 19 year olds on the roster. Most, if not all of them, could be absent when next season begins. Three of them, Matt Rempe, Ty Bauer and Sam Knazko, are signed NHL draft picks. I'd say there are two chances any of those three are back next season, slim and none. Sending a signed 20 year old back to the WHL, ala Ryan Gropp, is the exception, not the rule. I fully expect all three to be playing in the American Hockey League next season. If they return, it is an unexpected bonus.
Then there is Davidson. Now that he's drafted could he be in the AHL next season? Quite possibly. 42 goal scorers don't grow on trees and at age 20, he's eligible. Now I think Montreal has a deep talent pool and they may not need Davidson in Laval, but you never know.
The other 19 year old who could be a 20 for next season is Chase Lacombe. But Seattle just added two more defensemen to the fold this offseason, acquiring Easton Kovacs in a trade with Lethbridge and selecting Kai Knak in the Import Draft. That gives the T-birds a deep pool of young defensemen going into the 2022-23 campaign. You have Kevin Korchinski, Jeremy Hanzel, Sawyer Mynio, Niko Tsakumis, Ethan Mittelstaedt, Bryce Pickford and Hyde Davidson also in the mix. And I'm not sure of the status of Leon Okonkwo Prada.
Knak just signed, but Lambert is still a question mark. Is LOP still in the mix for an Import slot? Because Lambert is a first round NHL pick, I believe the T-birds still retain Okonkwo Prada's rights and can bring him to training camp. Either way, all those young defensemen are going to need ice time. Is there room for Lacombe and/or LOP?
At the very least, the T-birds are shopping for two, possibly three 20 year olds to fill out their 2022-23 roster.
Teams that make deep playoff runs and win titles at the WHL level usually are led by a strong, deep group of 19 year olds. Look at Edmonton. Their Chynoweth Cup winning roster featured ten 2002 born, or 19 year old, players. Seattle is in good shape in that regard with eight 2003 born players eligible to return next season at age 19. Will they, at some point, look to add another 2003 born player to the fold?
So how do the T-birds get a little older? Where do they get those 20 year old players to fill out their roster?
Okay, you say, Seattle has a stockpile of high draft picks to make trades and acquire those seasoned players from the WHL's non-contenders. Seattle did have an extra 2023 first round pick but no more. They used it, along with a second round pick, to acquire Lambert's rights from Saskatoon. Now, if he doesn't come to Seattle, the pick reverts back to Seattle. Right now though that pick is in limbo. The T-birds also used a first and a second last December to acquire Sjvejkovksy from Medicine Hat.
Meanwhile, most of the other draft picks acquired in those trades with Kelowna, have been spent over the last two drafts. Those young players selected are in the system but too young to have a significant impact on the coming season and there are rules in place about trading young, signed prospects.
What it means is, by using those draft picks and already signing those players, Seattle has accumulated a lot of talent to carry them through the foreseeable future. Young players like Pickford, Gracyn Sawchyn, Tij Iginla, Braeden Cootes, Hyde Davidson and Kaleb Hartmann and many more, are already T-birds. I think this means LaForge will not hesitate to trade away future first and second round picks if necessary to help make a long run next spring.
But here's the caveat. Kamloops is hosting the Memorial Cup in 2023. They already have a good team but will be looking to add top end players. They don't want to go into the Cup as just hosts, but as WHL Champions. Kamloops has an extra 2023 first round pick to dangle. In the Eastern Conference, Winnipeg, much like Edmonton this spring, is built for next season. They too will be looking to add a final, high caliber piece or two to their roster. Teams like Moose Jaw and Portland will be in the hunt as well. The non-contending WHL teams know this. That means the price to trade for available, top end talent will be high. Seattle found that out in just acquiring the rights to Lambert.
How high? Well, be prepared for sticker shock. Let's just look at what the Oil Kings did to strengthen their roster for their 2023 run to the Cup. Starts off pretty inexpensively with a swap of 4th rounders and throwing in a 7th rounder to Seattle for Simon Kubicek. To acquire Luke Prokop Edmonton sent two prospects, a 2nd round pick and a 4th to Calgary. Not long after, they would send a 2nd and a 4th to Lethbridge for Cole Miller. Not bad. but then the price goes up. They sent two prospects, two 1st round picks, a 3rd and a 6th to Prince Albert for Kaiden Guhle.
They were done, right? Nope! In January they sent Jacob Boucher and two more first round picks to Vancouver for Justin Sourdif. That's five players, four 1st rounders, three 2nd rounders, a 3rd, three 4ths, a 6th and a 7th in exchannge for five players. And they weren't bidding against themselves. Those prices were high because other teams were trying to acqire those players. It will be the same scenario for next season and the prices could be higher because Kamloops is hosting the Memorial Cup. In fact, Seattle may have set the price when they made the deal with Saskatoon for Lambert.
Lastly, while it would seem following up this season with another strong run next season would be inevitable for the T-birds, nothing is guarenteed. Before this last season began the Vancouver Giants thought of themselves as a serious challenger for the Chynoweth Cup. They had a veteran team that included twelve 19 year olds and five NHL draft picks. Among them were two first and one second rounder.
Yet for various reasons, including many injuries, they barely squeeked into the playoffs with a losing record as the 8th seed. They went from being potential deadline day buyers to selling off two of their best players. While they did pull off the first round upset of Everett, they were quickly dispatched in Round Two.
Seattle has their work to do. Right now, they are a very good but incomplete team. They have talent to build around and some assets to spend but nothing is a sure thing. If the first half of the season goes as well as we think it will, I expect Seattle to be buyers at the January trade deadline. It just means we're once again in for a wild ride!
