Feb-Win-uary

We may be a week past Valentine's Day, but the Thunderbirds are still in love with winning this month.  Seven up, seven down.  The latest victims? The Tri-City Americans, Spokane Chiefs and the Portland Winterhawks as Seattle takes both games this weekend to go with their win Tuesday.

We talked about the Friday game against Spokane as being a potential "trap" game, with the showdown in Portland looming the following night.  It would have been easy for the T-birds to overlook a Spokane team they have dominated, especially in the second half of the season.  There may have been a little bit of that, but they did what they needed in order to win that game.  It wasn't their most complete effort but, they took care of business.  

They beat Spokane without a single point from their top four scorers. It was another example of the team's depth rising up as players like Ludwig, Myatovic, Mynio and Okonkwo Prada stepped forward. It also doesn't hurt when your number two goalie plays like a number one.  

Seattle's first six wins this month were against the bottom five teams in the Western Conference.  All have losing records. Combined those five teams have a 78-138-13-3 record.  The T-birds should win those games and they did, just like the other Western Conference teams near the top of the standings are doing.  

But the T-birds hadn't beaten a team with a winning record in over a month. Of course, they rarely played a team with a winning record in that span.  Still, they were just 1-2-1-1 since January 14th.  Sure, there were mitigating circumstances. Seattle played a number of those games with a less than full roster but Saturday's game down in Portland was a bit of a litmus test for the T-birds.   They passed the test with flying colors.

Your first inclination might be to say, of course they did. They were finally whole and complete.  this is what this team is capable of when they have their full complement of players available. Except that wasn't the case, was it?  No Ty Bauer, no Sam Knazko and, for most of the game, no Matt Rempe.  Three NHL drafted players unavailable. Oh, and you take a couple of early penalties and one of your best penalty killers, Nico Myatovic, is out of the lineup with an injury.  

No, Saturday the T-birds best weapon wasn't their nearly full roster, it was their singular focus.  After the game, head coach Matt O'Dette said as much. "Part of our keys (to the game) was composure. Whatever odd things can happen during a game here, we were going to keep our composure. Every guy was focused on their next shift."

That focus was evident on the early five-minute penalty kill.  Seattle limited Portland to just a few shots on goal.  Yes, they did get that late goal as the penalty was nearly over, but had they lost their composure there, it could have been much worse and led to a bigger hole to dig out from. They limited the damage and did the same on the second Portland power play a minute later.  And when the T-birds were shorthanded again early in the second period, and the Winterhawks had another chance to add to their lead, the T-birds penalty killers did it again. 

Every opportunity Portland had to take over that game, was thwarted by the T-birds laser-like focus. And once Seattle scored to tie the game, it was they who took the game over.  

I was disappointed for Thomas Milic when he didn't get drafted last summer by an NHL team.  But there is a little part of me now, that is just a bit glad that didn't happen.  I think Milic is playing this season with a bit of a chip on his shoulder for that slight. I think it helps him focus.  He's motivated to prove to 32 NHL teams that they were wrong to pass him up.  He outdueled his counterpart, Portland's Taylor Gauthier, another goalie I can't figure out why he wasn't drafted.  Two of the WHL's best netminders going head-to-head and Milic won this round.

You lose a Myatovic to injury and you plug in a Ludwig.  That was what happened this weekend for the T-birds.  Gabe Ludwig missed the first five games of February while in Covid Protocol.  In his first two games back, two big assists.  

Seattle will still trail Portland in the standings when the weekend is over. They'll either be two or four points back of the Winterhawks depending on the results of Portland's Sunday game against Spokane. Either way, when Monday arrives, Seattle will have four games in hand and control their own destiny in the battle for second place in the U.S. Division.

Seattle is soon to get a key piece back in their lineup when defenseman Sam Knazko returns from capturing a bronze medal at the Winter Olympics in Beijing. In his absence three players, Chase Lacombe, Sawyer Mynio and Leon Okonkwo Prada stepped up big time, eating up quality minutes and contributing at the offensive end as well.  As a result, the T-birds D-group is leaps better than they were when Knazko departed back in late January.

My T-birds Three Stars for the Week:

Third Star: C/W Sam Popowich.  He's generously listed at 5'9" but he is a prime example that size in this game doesn't matter, if you don't let it define you.  He plays the game the right way.  With Rempe out of the game following the early major penalty Saturday in Portland, Popowich was elevated to the top power play unit, and he delivered a big, primary assist on the game winning power play goal.  He's a terrific penalty killer as well and scored the game winning goal against Tri-City Tuesday, shorthanded.  

Second Star: D Leon Okonkwo Prada.  He has taken advantage of the absence of Ty Bauer and Sam Knazko. Getting more minutes, his game is improving day-to-day as he adjusts to the North American game. I think he enjoys the physical aspect of the game over here.  He was exceptional on the penalty kill Saturday in Portland.  For the week he had three assists and finished the three games with a +5 rating.

First Star: D Kevin Korchinski.  It only seems like he's on the ice for sixty minutes each game, because when he's out there, you notice him for all the right reasons.  He rarely makes the wrong decision with the puck.  He controls the game.  His skating is a combination of Mat Barzal and Shea Theodore.  His hockey IQ is off the charts.  Four assists and plus four on the week. He is now first among WHL rookie defensemen in scoring with 42-points.  

Seven Scores and Four Games Ago

Twenty-seven goals. That's how many times the T-birds have put the puck in the back of the net the last four games. That's almost, but not quite, seven goals a game.  Once again, the offensive onslaught coincides with the team being almost completely healthy and available.  It gives them the ability to roll four lines. It gives them scoring depth. It gives them a very deep arsenal.

Eight T-birds averaged at least a point per game over those four wins. This is no one line team.  The funny thing though is, the average of nearly seven goals a game with their mostly complete roster the last four games, isn't much higher than what they did in the previous four games when they could only ice 16 skaters each game.  Yeah, in those four games they could muster only 22 goals or just over five goals per game. The biggest difference these last four games with the 18 skaters available, was more energy from start to finish in each game. They got leads and they built on them.

After each game I check in with head coach Matt O'Dette to get his assessment of his team's performance that night.  The overriding theme from our conversations is that they are playing well, but they're not there yet.  Where is "there"? That would be as close to a perfect sixty minutes of hockey as you can get. He knows his team has not hit their peak.  He knows there are areas they can clean up or improve on, even when they are winning 7-2.  He is not asking for perfection.  No team ever plays the ideal, perfect game.  He's asking that they play every game, every period and every shift without cutting corners or falling off their good habits. He's asking them to aim for perfection.

The Thunderbirds were just 3 of 15 on the power play in their two games up in Victoria this weekend. That's still 20 percent success with the man advantage. I say just 20 percent because they were humming along at a nearly 40 percent clip on the power play since December 30th. That rate wasn't sustainable. They were going to drop off a bit.  But it wasn't like they fumbled away power play opportunities.  The Royals, despite their bottom of the conference spot in the playoff chase, still have a top ten penalty killing unit. Give some credit to them. The T-birds power play was, and is, just fine.

Lucas Ciona is becoming a power play specialist. In his last ten games he has nine goals and five of them are of the power play variety.  How is he doing it?  He's keeping it simple by putting his physical frame in front of the opposing goal and banging home rebound or deflecting point shots.

In the 14 games he's played since Christmas, Kevin Korchinski has 14 assists.  In the 11 games he's played since Christmas, Jeremy Hanzel has 11 assists.  Korchinski is rightfully getting plenty of top of the draft buzz for the 2022 NHL Draft.  I think the draft buzz is going to start picking up again for Hanzel too. Either way, Seattle has a great duo on the blue line with these two.

My T-birds Three Stars for the Weekend:

Third Star: W Conner Roulette. The 2021 Dallas Stars draft pick finished the weekend with five points (1g,4a) and a +5 rating.  It seems it's a different hero stepping up for the T-birds each game and Saturday in Victoria it was his turn. He ended the game with four points, but I'm not sure he didn't get shorted an assist.  He's gone about his business this season in an almost quiet fashion, racking up 47 points (16g, 31a) and is +23. 

Second Star: C Henrik Rybinski.  Like Roulette, Rybinski now has 47 points on the season after earning six points on the weekend with three goals and three assists.  Saturday, when Victoria crept within two goals in the third period, it was Rybinski who burst their comeback bubble with a pair of goals.  The only question still unanswered is which NHL team is going to sign the free agent to an entry level deal.

First Star: W Lukas Svejkovsky. Three goals, two assist and +4 in two games on Vancouver Island. In ten games now for Seattle he has 17 points (6g, 11a) and is +12.  He has such a wicked shot, especially off the rush.  All of his goals have come over the last four games, which seems to coincide with him being completely over his battle with Covid.  In those four games he has six goals and five assists. This is why Seattle was willing to pay such a steep price to get him in a trade from Medicine Hat in late December.  

 

Home Cookin'

The Thunderbirds have played seven home games thus far in 2022 and they have earned points in all of them, posting a 5-0-1-1 record.  There is an argument to be made that they should be 7-0-0-0 in those games.  They poured 51 shots on goal in a 4-3 overtime loss to Portland back on January 14th. Hey, sometimes you run into a hot goalie.  Then on January 29th they built leads of 3-0, 4-3 and 5-4 against the Winterhawks only to lose, 6-5 in a shootout in yet another game where they rifled over 40 shots on goal (44).

Over those seven home games, the T-birds have scored 42 goals, or an average of six goals per game.  Seattle has allowed 16 goals in that stretch, albeit five of those goals against came in one game. Still, that means they are surrendering, on average, just slightly over two goal a game (2.28). So, if you come see the T-birds play at home in 2022, you're more than likely to see them win 6-2.

On the season, the T-birds have scored 85 goals in 20 home games. That's 4.25 per home game and trending upwards. Prior to this last seven game stretch on home ice, Seattle had played 13 games at the accesso ShoWare Center and scored 43 times for an average of 3.3. So again, first 13 games at home 3.3 goals per game, next seven home games 6.0 goals per game, season home average 4.25.

How do we account for the bump in home goals? It would be simple to say it's the addition of Lukas Svejkovsky to the lineup and all the players being available and off the Covid list or even, well, the T-birds are playing lots of home games against subpar opposition.  Those are factors but not the whole story.  In his eight games as a Thunderbird, Svejkovsky has played five of them at the accesso ShoWare Center.  In those five home games he has nine points (3g, 6a) but his three goals all came in the two games this past weekend. His first three home games he had just three assists.  

This past weekend Seattle did get four players off the Covid list and that certainly gave them a nearly complete roster to utilize in their two wins in which they scored 14 times.  But the two home games prior to that, Seattle played with a short roster, dressing just 16 skaters, were absent three of their top six defensemen and scored 12 goals in those two games.  

So, it must be the schedule and the T-birds are racking up big goal totals against inferior competition.  Sure, four of the T-birds five wins are against teams with losing records in Spokane (twice) Prince George and Vancouver accounting for 29 of those 42 goals.  But in three games against Portland (x2) and Everett the T-birds still managed to score 13 goals and were 1-0-1-1.  Remember, they played one of those games against Portland with just 16 skaters and still managed to pot five goals.  

So, in the four games against the three teams with below .500 records they averaged 7.25 goals per game.  In the three games against two teams with two of the best winning percentages in the WHL, Seattle averaged 4.3 goals per game, while not playing at full strength.

What I see as the biggest reasons for the increase in goals at home is not in any statistics you can point to on a scoresheet.  Nope, It's confidence. It's chemistry. It's maturity.  Young second year players like Jordan Gustafson and Reid Schaefer are realizing their potential. In his 23-game rookie campaign last spring, Schaefer scored ZERO goals in the 18-games he played in.  This season he has 19 goals in 39-games.

Meanwhile a third-year player such as Lucas Ciona is understanding and realizing his role and how he can be most effective.  As a result, he has eight goals in his last eight games. Four of those have come on the power play.  All eight have probably been scored from within a 10-foot radius of the net, as he learns to use his physicality. 

The T-birds have also found chemistry in their forward lines.  They can roll four lines nightly when healthy.  They have a Top line of Schaefer-Rybinski and Davidson. Combined that trio has 127 points (54g, 72a).  Their second line is the Speed line; Roulette-Gustafson-Svejkovsky.  That threesome has a combined 124-points (48g, 76a). 

Their third line is their Brute line consisting of Ciona-Rempe-Sanders. Together they have 58-points (33g, 25a).  The fourth line is their Grit line, featuring a little bit of everything with Oremba/Ludwig/Popowich/Myatovic (13g, 24a, 37 points).   

When they have their entire D-corps healthy and available, the Thunderbirds top six would be Bauer, Gottfried, Knazko, Korchinski and Lacombe and a rotation of Mynio and Okonkwo Prada.  The reality is, Seattle has not had that top six together for any game this season.  The closest they came was December 10th in Kamloops.  At the time they still had Eric Van Impe. They hadn't yet made the deal to send him to Swift Current for Lacombe because they hadn't made the trade for Svejkovsky yet.

The Thunderbirds won that game, 6-1, but that was also the game Bauer suffered his long-term, lower body injury. Under their current roster iteration, the closest they've come to having their top six d-men available was a three-game stretch between Jan 15th and January 22nd. that's it.  Otherwise, it has been a bit of a patchwork back end, sometimes dressing just five defensemen, often with a younger player called up such as Ethan Mittlesteadt or Niko Tskaumis. Most often they've only had three of their top six defenseman available.  

They will get Knazko back after the Olympics.  They hope Bauer can make it back late in the regular season or at some point in the playoffs, but that is no guarantee. I think Seattle looked at acquiring another defenseman at the trade deadline but the asking prices this year were through the roof. They didn't overspend for a short-term rental.  they looked at their group and said, you know what? They are more than good enough to carry the load. 

Coaches are never going to be 100-percent satisfied, especially at the development level. Nor should they be when they are looking to teach these wanna-be pros how to be professionals.  T-birds head coach Matt O'Dette wasn't satisfied with how his players reacted to having big, comfortable leads on the weekend. 

They went off script and got away from their structure.  "The way we got our lead, the way we got our goals, was by playing the right way and playing with good habits. When we stopped doing that, the other team took it to us," he said. "You can't do that. We're trying to engrain our habits so they're there every single night, every single shift. Bottom line we're looking for sixty minutes. The past two nights there have been lots of good habits, but definitely room for improvement."  Teachable moments.  

My T-birds Three Stars for the Two Game Weekend (T-birds 2-0, Covid 1-0):

Third Star: W Lucas Ciona.  There always seems to be a point in a players WHL career when everything comes together and perfectly aligns.  That moment seems now for Ciona, the 2021 sixth round pick of the NHL's Calgary Flames is, well, flaming hot.  He's playing physical hockey, his best attribute, without going over the line.  He has learned to use his net front presence, especially on the power play. He had three goals on the weekend and now has eight in his last eight games.

Second Star: C Henrik Rybinski.  As always, he's the catalyst for this team.  His non-stop motor sets the tone for the rest of the team.  After picking up an assist in each game, he's riding a six-game point streak (5g, 7a). He's also tops among Seattle's forward group with a +26 rating.  He's a big reason why the T-birds are third in the league on the penalty kill and one of only half a dozen WHL teams who have both special teams in the top ten.

First Star: W Lukas Svejkovsky.  After a tough battle to get back to 100-perecnt following a bout with Covid, the Pittsburgh Penguins 2020 fourth round pick says he feels normal again.  This weekend he gave us a glimpse of what his normal is as he finished with six points (3g, 3a) and was +5.  He showed us his hockey toolbox with speed, quickness, good hands and a deft scoring touch. With 12 points in eight games as a T-birds, maybe we should change the name of his hometown to Point-a-Game-Roberts, Washington.