Sunday, December 29, 2019

A Steady Climb

The Thunderbirds went into the Christmas break playing .500 hockey, posting a 5-5 record in ten games between November 27th and December 17th. Back from Christmas they split a pair of home games. So, over the past month, Seattle is 6-6. .500 hockey over a month of play may not seem like much, but in the process of going 6-6, the T-birds erased a seven point gap in the standings and have tied the Tri-City Americans for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Seattle accomplished that 6-6 mark against some pretty tough competition too. Tri-City was the only team the T-birds played over that span that had a losing record and the T-birds beat them twice. But Seattle also posted wins over Everett, Portland, Spokane and Victoria. Those last four teams ended this past weekend with a combined 87-36-8-4 record. I mention this only because the T-birds need to get used to that brand of competition. A good chunk of their schedule the rest of the way will be against top tier teams. fifteen of the final 34 games will be against Portland and Everett. Those two teams boast the two best winning percentages in the WHL. Those two teams are tied for the top spot in the Western Conference. The good news is Seattle has shown they can skate with both those teams. Through seven games against the Winterhawks and Silvertips Seattle boasts a .500 record at 3-3-1-0.

If Seattle wants to earn a playoff spot, they are probably going to need to earn more wins, or at least more points against those two division rivals. But they also can't falter against some of the teams they face that have non-winning records. The T-birds have eight games on the schedule against teams with records currently below .500. A misstep against anyone of those teams could mean the difference between a playoff berth and sitting home in late March. There are no easy games in the WHL. Seattle has to be just as pumped to play the teams at the bottom of the standings as they are to play the teams at the top.

They'll also need to be consistent. Seattle played some fairly consistent hockey over the ten games pre-Christmas. They came back for their first game, post holiday break, and were energetic in beating Spokane 9-5. That energy and fire were lacking out of the gate Saturday night against Portland and they earned the result they got, a 4-1 loss. Seattle features a roster where 75 percent of the players are age 18 or younger. As a result inconsistent play shouldn't be too surprising. But halfway through the season, we should start seeing less and less of that inconsistency as the young player get more and more ice time under their belts. No nights off, no shifts off should be the battle cry.

The trade deadline is looming. It's my personal opinion, so don't read into it that I have any insider information because I don't. But I don't think there will be any more major roster movement by General Manager Bil LaForge. It would probably take one of those "offers-I-can't-refuse" type deals for LaForge to move a current player. He's never going to ignore a phone call from another GM. But teams around Seattle will be looking to bolster their rosters for the playoffs and that will both positively and negatively affect the level of competition the T-birds face going forward. We've already seen the Tri-City Americans make a couple of post Christmas deals, trading away two players for future draft picks. Prince George and Moose Jaw, a couple of other sub .500 teams left on the schedule, may also be sellers before the trade deadline in early January. You have to believe Everett, Portland, Kelowna and Vancouver, teams Seattle will face a combined 21 times between now and March 22nd, will be buyers, looking to bolster already strong rosters.

Buckle up, the second half playoff push is here.

My T-birds three Stars for the weekend:

Third Star: W Keltie Jeri-Leon. The 19 year old left for Christmas with the team goal scoring lead then promptly added two more to his total with a couple Friday in the win over Spokane. He ended the night against the Chiefs with a career best five points. He is three points away from tying his point total from last season. With 12 through the first 34 games he already has scored four more goals then he did in 74 games a season ago.

Second Star: W Conner Bruggen-Cate. Definitely one of Seattle's top skaters on the weekend, scoring in back to back games for the first time this season. He ended the weekend with five points (2g, 3a) and a plus 3 rating. He continues to play a physical game and was a key to Seattle killing off all nine opponents power plays on the weekend. I believe he is the de facto captain as the only 20 year old wearing a letter on his jersey since the trade of Matthew Wedman.

First Star: C Henrik Rybinski. With an assist Saturday against Portland Rybinski is on a mini three game scoring streak and finished the weekend with five points (2g,3a) and a +3 rating. His motor is non stop and as a result, he creates a lot of havoc for opposing d-men with his strong forecheck. Since the trade of Wedman, Rybinski has been the offensive leader with 10 points over that span of nine games with six goals and four assists. He is the lynchpin on the T-birds top line with Jeri-Leon and Conner Roulette. He was also a big part of Seattle's special team's success on the weekend.

Friday, December 20, 2019

In the Chase

When Seattle fell to Victoria at home on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, they were seven points and four wins behind the Tri-City Americans for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. At other times they've been double digits behind the Ams in the standings. Eight days After that Victoria loss the T-birds would trade their captain and leading scorer, Matthew Wedman, to the Kelowna Rockets for future draft picks. To many fans and outside observers, this appeared to be a signal the team was folding shop and throwing in the towel with ten games to go before the holiday break.

You know the old saying, those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it? Well, when Seattle dealt away some veterans at the midpoint last season, ten points out of a playoff spot at the time, the same naysayers were singing the same tune. The team had given up. But GM Bil LaForge said then, and he said it again this season, he doesn't own a white flag. This team will not surrender. History just might be repeating itself.

Over the last ten games before the Christmas break, the T-birds went 5-5, at the same time, Tri-City was compiling a 1-7-2-1 record. In just over two weeks time, Seattle pulled within a point of the Americans and even in the win column. Entering the break, Seattle was trending upward. They won two in a row and three of four, including a pair of victories over Tri-City. As a result they are within in one point of that eighth and final playoff spot. They have put themselves in position to chase down a postseason spot with 36 games remaining. They are actually in a better spot then they were at this time a season ago.

They also told the young players, this is your team. It was a vote of confidence for a team that gives heavy minutes to 13 rookies or second year players. A playoff spot is not guaranteed, but they know if they get there, it will be because those baker's dozen youngsters are pulling the sleigh. Yes, they'll need their veterans to bring leadership the rest of the way too, but the young guns are the key to the second half playoff push.

Want proof? Just look at Seattle's newly constructed top line. It does feature a 19 year old in Keltie Jeri-Leon and 18 year old NHL drafted Henrik Rybinski, but it also includes 16 year old rookie Conner Roulette. In the last ten games, that line combo has garnered 25 points (11g, 14a). Guess which one of those three is leading that line in point production? It's the 16 year old. Meanwhile, another rookie, 17 year old Matt Rempe, picked up eight points (3g, 5a) since being given the job of third line center. But don't go off the stat sheet to see the impact these first and second year players are having. See it with your own eyes. Watch the impact players such as Brendan Williamson, Lucas Ciona and Payton Mount are having on the opposing team as they try to bring the puck up ice.

What can help Seattle over the course of the second half is to somehow fix the power play. Seattle has struggled with the man advantage, particularly on the road. The best they can do is keep trying. I doubt there is any help coming in that regard via a trade. They have been doing a better job setting up on the power play recently. A lack of finish is the culprit. Maybe a break is exactly what they need to reset their power play focus.

As it was a season ago, the second half is going to present a bear of a schedule. Getting to the playoffs won't be easy. If it happens, it will be earned.

My Three Stars for the final week of play, pre-holiday break:

Third Star: W Andrej Kukuca. Seattle won three of four heading into the break and Kukuca had points in all four games and he was a plus player each night. The 20 year old Slovakian earned six points (2g,4a) and was a +7 over the four contests.

Second Star: C Henrk Rybinski. The Florida Panthers draft pick didn't pile up the points with just three (2g,1a) but he is the one player who sets the tone for the team with his relentless energy. To play T-birds hockey, you have to commit to the forecheck and Rybinski does that in spades. Still think he needs to shoot more and pass less, but he is a creator in the offensive zone.

First Star: W Conner Roulette. Most times if you said your best player over the week was a 16 year old, you probably didn't play too well. This is not one of those times. His last four games garnered him seven points (3g, 4a), a shootout winning goal and a +7 rating. I'd take that every week from a 20 year old veteran, let alone a 16 year old rookie. Don't think he's just a one dimensional player either. He plays a 200-foot game and is a very strong back checker.







Sunday, December 8, 2019

Fresh Ice

And just like that, the last piece of the Thunderbirds 2017 WHL Championship roster is gone. Thursday night Seattle traded Matthew Wedman to the Kelowna Rockets in exchange for a first, second and fifth round draft pick. The picks are spread out over three drafts, but don't be fooled, that is an impressive return for the 20 year old center in his last year in the league. It adds to a growing number of stockpiled high draft picks General Manager Bil La Forge has accumulated in the past 12 months. More on that later.

First, trading away the captain, the last piece of a championship team, and a player the team helped to develop into an NHL draft pick, is not an easy endeavor. I'm not normally around when these deals go down. But I'm glad I was for this one and the one last New Year's Eve that saw the T-birds trade away two other players from that Chynoweth Cup winning team, Zack Andrusiak and Reece Harsch. I had a chance to shake their hands and wish them well. They will always be remembered as not just T-birds, but T-birds champions. They were all part of a special group of young men. Wedman will always be celebrated for his overtime, conference championship, series clinching goal against the Rockets. It sent Seattle to the league championship in 2016, ending a 20 year absence. He was just 16 years old back then. Over the next three years we watched him grow into manhood, become a potent offensive weapon and a leader. Once a T-bird, always a T-birds.

With Wedman gone Seattle took the ice for a pair of games this past weekend in Victoria. With newcomer Max Patterson arriving just in time, the T-birds played a solid, physical sixty minutes Friday night and came out with a well earned 4-1 win. The follow up effort Saturday night was close but not as complete. Whistle happy officiating was partly responsible, taking any flow away from the game for either team. No hockey game should ever feature 18 power plays but this one did. Seattle's strength is 5-on-5 hockey and the penalties denied them that element much of the game. In the end the T-birds took a 3-1 loss. I think, beyond the parade to the box, Seattle's struggle to finish chances hurt them. You could probably count at least eight high quality scoring chances that went awry.

Overall Seattle was able to play the T-bird way in those two games on Vancouver Island. They played a heavy game where they were finishing all their checks. They did a good job of getting pucks in deep and making the Royals defenseman have to play the puck deep in their own zone and pay a physical price for doing it. They got under the skin of a few of those Royals players. It was interesting to read the comments of Victoria Head Coach Dan Price after the two game set, talking about how his players were battered and bruised and had the marks to show for it. the Thunderbirds left their calling card.

Now the team gets set for a five game schedule over an eight day stretch that will take them into the Christmas break, with all five games against U.S. Division opponents. Seattle currently sits six points out of a playoff spot. They'd like to close that gap before heading home for the holidays. Yes, despite that Wedman deal, this team is still aiming for the postseason. They don't care they're one of the youngest teams in the league, giving large minutes to seven rookies. The organization believes in their talent and believes they will continue to get better with each passing game. The trades may be more about the future, but the team is playing for today.

As for the trade, as we mentioned the T-birds have amassed a lot of top-of-the-draft picks. With the haul from the Wedman trade added in, they now currently have six first-round and six-second round selections in their arsenal for the next four drafts. That doesn't even take into account their other picks in the third round and beyond. For example, over that same span the T-birds are currently in possession of 13 picks combined in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. Most of those picks are going be in the 2021, '22 and '23 drafts, just as this current group of young players is maturing. The T-birds can make selections with those picks when the time comes, or trade them for top end established talent augmenting this current group when they are ready to challenge for a deep playoff run.

If you believe that a rebuild, or reload, whatever you want to call it, begins after one group reaches the apex, as did the 2017 team, then you have to take into account what began as that 2017 team was raising the Cup. Just a week or so earlier that spring, Seattle drafted Payton Mount, Ty Bauer and Luke Bateman. The next spring they selected Kai Uchacz, Lucas Ciona, Conner Roulette, Thomas Milic, Sam Popowich, Reid Schaefer and Mekai Sanders. In the most recent draft they used two first round picks on Jordan Gustafson and Kevin Korchinski and a second rounder on Spencer Penner. They chose nine other players in last spring's draft and some of those will end up signing a well. They've listed and signed players like Cade McNelly, Matt Rempe and Jared Davidson while trading for youngster like Brendan Williamson, Zach Ashton, Henrik Rybinski and Blake Lyda. They'll continue to list and recruit more players to supplement that group.

This is the core they are building around. From 2017 until the 2023 draft rolls around, Seattle will have used as many as 20 first and second round draft picks alone to build this roster up while also building for the future. They'll do that by using those draft picks to select players, or trade those picks to acquire players already in the league. The goal isn't to compete for one championship, but to compete for multiple titles. La Forge has a plan and that plan is to make this team a contender every year.

My T-birds Three Stars for the Weekend:

Third Star: C Max Patterson. Acquired from Everett to fill the 20 year old vacancy created by the Wedman trade, Patterson jumped off the plane and onto the ice and had a solid debut weekend as a T-bird. Without benefit of a practice with his new line mates, he made the transition seem effortless, creating instant chemistry with Andrej Kukuca and Payton Mount. In the two games he won 31 of his 48 faceoffs. He was a physical force, and according to head coach Matt O'Dette, a vocal leader.

Second Star: C Henrik Rybinski. Now centering Seattle's top line, with Keltie Jeri-Leon and Conner Roulette on his wings, he was not just the T-birds best skater both nights, he was the best skater for either team in the two games in Victoria. He potted a goal each night and set his wingers up for multiple scoring chances. When he came to Seattle last January he wanted to play center, but Seattle wasn't sure if he could win a faceoff, so he played on the wing. On the weekend he won 22 of his 28 draws. He's a center.

First Star: G Blake Lyda. That ten goals against game in Kamloops? It has to be looked at now as a fluke, an aberration, a total team collapse and not a goalie issue. In his four games surrounding that outing, he's surrendered just five goals against on 122 shots and earned his first two WHL wins. This weekend he stopped 35 of 36 shots Friday in the 4-1 win. He then stopped 11 of 11 in relief of Roddy Ross Saturday. For those counting at home, that is 46 saves on 47 shots up in Victoria. You can't erase that 10-goal game. It goes on his permanent record, but take it out of the equation and in the other four outings the past month, he has a 2-1-0-0 record, a 1.45 GAA and a SPCT of .959.








Sunday, December 1, 2019

The Pressure Campaign

Saturday night in Everett was the T-Birds at their very best. Minus a sluggish start and an initial power play that couldn't get out of its own way, it was 60 minutes of hockey played the T-Birds way. Get pucks in deep, attack on the forecheck and force the opponents to play much of the game in their own end. At the other end, keep shots to the outside and get in to passing lanes or sellout to block as many shots as possible. Then add in a strong dose of solid goaltending and exceptional penalty killing. Doing that, Seattle, by the third period, had worn down their opponent. That effort might seem manic, but that is by design. Just keep putting constant pressure on the puck. That's the T-Birds way.

Seattle had a poor first shift. As a result, the Silvertips scored just 65-seconds into the game. On the road, before a hostile crowd it could have been the first ingredient for a recipe to disaster. Seattle didn't buckle though. They wobbled but stayed upright. Andrej Kukuca made a terrific read on a poor Everett cross-ice pass at the Seattle blue line. He stole the puck and raced up ice on a 2-on-1 one rush with Conner Roulette. He then unleashed a beauty of a shot that tied the game, 1-1, three minutes into the game.

If that wasn't the turning point then the T-Birds two penalty kills in the first period were. Everett entered the game tops in the league with the man advantage, clicking at just under 26%. They were 10-for-24 on the power play over their last six games. Led by Roddy Ross between the pipes, Seattle silenced the 'Tips power play. Henrik Rybinski and Brendan Williamson were two of Seattle's best penalty killers all night, but it was a total team effort in that regard. The first period PK denied Everett the chance to get momentum on their side. The same was true in the second period when the Silvertips were awarded three straight power plays over the last seven minutes. One goal against in that situation could have been enough to put Seattle too far behind the eight ball. We talk often about gaining momentum off your power play, but the same is true of your penalty kill. Seattle's successful kills energized the entire team.

Greasy goals. We hear that expression all the time. They are effort goals, never-quit-on-the-puck goals. They are funnel-pucks-to-the-net-and-bang-away-until-you-hear-the-whistle goals. And they are game winning goals as was the case Saturday. The T-Birds dominated the third period by putting everything they could on net. If the shot was saved, they just did it again. Do it enough and eventually it will lead to a rebound or deflection that gives you a second or third chance opportunity. That describes the T-Birds game winner. Owen Williams just flung a puck on net. After a couple of rebounds by Rybinski and Roulette clanked off the post, Keltie Jeri-Leon finally tucked it home.

In two games in Everett this season the T-Birds have outshot the Silvertips 73-58. In the third period of those two games the shots favor Seattle 33-14. Seattle only has one goal to show for it, but that might have something to do with the quality of the opposing goalie. It's no reason to stop shooting. Meanwhile, over the course of those two road games against their division rival, Seattle and Ross have allowed just two goals against, and one of those came in overtime. Over his last four road starts in Everett, dating back to last February 22nd, Ross has a 1.20 goals against average, a .964 save percentage, stopping 135 of 140 shots while posting a 2-0-2-0 record.

Over their last four games Seattle has allowed just 10 goals against with one of those being an empty netter. So really it has been 3, 2, 3 and 1 goal allowed in those games. This four game stretch comes after a game in which the T-Birds surrendered 10 goals in one game up in Kamloops. The better team defense coincides with the return to the lineup of captain Matthew Wedman, from a four-game suspension, and defenseman Cade McNelly, off an 18-game injury. The past four games has seen the T-Birds roster at it's healthiest and most complete. For a young roster, missing key players from the lineup matters.

Saturday night was also a fourth straight game where the T-Birds young rookies played like anything but rookies, as Seattle got consistent play from that group once again. Williamson, Roulette, Matt Rempe, Lucas Ciona and Kai Uchacz are carving out roles but most importantly, they are playing the T-Bird way. You don't have to end up on the scoresheet to affect games and Ciona and Rempe, with their physical style, exemplify that.

More important was the effort of Seattle's veteran core group. They too, after collectively having an off night Wednesday, got back to playing T-Birds hockey. Kukuca and Jeri-Leon had the goals but Wedman, Rybinski, Ryan Gottfried and Conner Bruggen-Cate were all noticeable for the right reasons. And did anyone have a better game than d-man Williams? He came to Seattle a few years ago from Regina with the reputation as an offensive-minded defenseman, but his d-zone play has been outstanding, especially over this four game stretch.

As you read this another T-Bird rookie, 16-year old Mekai Sanders, is probably on the ice skating once again after a two month layoff due to a lower body injury. Soon he'll be cleared to play. Another piece of the future, but also for the present, ready to get into the fight for ice time.

My T-Birds Three Stars for Thanksgiving Week:

Third Star: C Matt Rempe. Rempe scored his second goal of the season Wednesday in the loss at home to Victoria and he did it from his knees. What kind of goal was it? A greasy goal, banging away at a loose puck in the crease. Meanwhile the 17-year old rookie is showing his value in the face off circle as well, winning 45 percent of his faceoffs. His physical style fits well in the T-Birds brand of play. Got into his first WHL scrap, but it wasn't a fair fight. He got jumped from behind after delivering a clean, monster hit. If I was gonna pick a fight with a guy 6'8", I probably wouldn't want to attack him face on either.

Second Star: D Owen Williams. He was on the ice for a great deal of the third period Saturday in Everett, expending a lot of energy. Yet, he still had enough gas in the tank to continue to win his puck battles, especially in the D-zone. He also knocked down a couple of Everett clearing attempts, extending Seattle's O-zone time and of course, he set up the game winning goal.

First Star: Goalie Roddy Ross. Ross stopped 62 of 66 shots over the course of two games. As you can see by the numbers posted above, he loves playing at Angel of the Winds Arena in Everett. His record would be much better then the current 7-9-2-1 if he had more offensive support in front of him. He was Seattle's best penalty killer Saturday against the Silvertips helping the T-Birds kill off all five Everett power plays.