The One Third Mark

With 22 games played, the Thunderbirds 2024-25 season has just about reached the one-third mark.  That's a good spot to step back and do a little evaluating of what we've seen so far. 

But first, let's take a big step back and juxtapose this season onto how things usually develop in the up and down world of  the WHL.  If we go back to, let's say 2012, the T-Birds had just drafted the core of what would be their 2016 and 2017 teams.  That would be the Barzal, Bear Kolesar, Neuls group. That group was augmented with players from the 2011 draft (Gropp) as well as the 2013 draft (Volcan), a couple of Import picks in True and Moilanen, a list player like Eansor and a shrewd trade that brought in Ottenbreit, but the main body of the team that made two runs to the WHL championship series was gathered up in 2012 WHL Draft.

It took that group a couple of years of learning to win together. They suffered a couple of tough playoff losses, then it all gelled for them in 2016 and 2017, culminating in the 2017 Chynoweth Cup.

In 2018 and 2019, Seattle began the gradual descent down the top of the WHL mountain when that core group left for the pro ranks.  There were a couple of seasons of first round playoff exits. But in the background, the wheels were spinning as Seattle went to work building their roster back up again through the 2018 and 2019 WHL Drafts. The climb back up to the top had begun.

In 2018 they selected another core group to build around with guys like Ciona, Roulette, Milic, Popowich, Sanders and Schaefer. the next spring they added Korchinski, Gustafson and Myatovic into the fold. That young group was headed for a 7th or 8th seed in the Western Conference postseason in 2019-20 when Covid shutdown the season. In the shortened 24 game 2021 season, with no playoff spot to hunt down, the T-Birds let the young guys eat up all the ice time.

The next year that group, with that experience under their belt, got within two wins of a 2022 WHL Championship, then won it all in the spring of 2023. And then the gradual descent down the WHL mountain began. Seattle had what should have been a playoff roster a season ago.  Long term injuries to key players derailed that trip to the postseason for a team that, if healthy all year, could have competed potentially for home ice in the first round.

You see the pattern here though? Slowly build up a team and when that roster is at a peak, they should be in prime position to battle for a trophy. Then a couple years falling back and then building it back up again. It looks like a roller coaster ride if you drew it out on paper.

I think the T-Birds are a year or two behind the schedule of those two Chynoweth Cup winning teams.  I'm not saying that, because of their track record, they'll waltz into another league title. No, what I'm saying is they are at the bottom of the roller coaster dip and this season starts the slow climb back up into contention just as they did after 2017. 

It may not seem that way on the ice with the results through the first 22 games this season, but remember, three seasons before advancing to the 2016 WHL Championship that young team built around the 2012 draft finished with a .400 winning percentage. The core group of the 2023 Chynoweth Cup winners had a .437 winning percentage when the season was shut down in 2019-20.

Does it mean this year's young team is on the same trajectory? Personally I thnk it might take the team an extra season or so. My reasoning is because unlike the 2017 team, Seattle had to augment the 2023 team by spending a lot of top end draft capital.  When the T-Birds built the 2017 championship club I don't believe they traded away any draft picker higher than a third rounder. In 2023 they traded five first round picks as well as second and third rounders. That's a lot of ground to catch up, especially when the teams around you have the majority of their high picks.

The reason they had to spend more in 2023 is twofold. Teams around the league are willing to put all their chips in now. And not just one team, but multiple teams.  Secondly, in 2023 Kamloops was hosting the Memorial Cup so they went all in. Winnipeg had built a deep club in the Eastern Conference and they went all in.  To keep up Seattle had to do the same. So the price was high.I believe prices are richer when your league hosts the Memorial Cup because your league automatically gets two spots in the tournament.

So unlike after the 2017 championship when Seattle had eight combined draft picks in the first three rounds of the 2018 and 2019 drafts including multiple first and second round choices, the T-Birds had only a combined four picks in the first three rounds of the 2022 and 2023 WHL Drafts and only one of those was a first round selection (2022-Cootes). 

It has meant the work of GM Bil LaForge and his scouting staff really gets put under the microscope.  Under the circumstances, I would say they have done a pretty good job of restocking the system.  We won't know the true results for a year or two, but the Cootes pick was a home run, considering ten teams past on him. To be fair there were some very good players selected before him at the top of that 2022 draft, but remember LaForge traded up five spots to get him.  Me thinks the GM knows what he's doing.

Seattle didn't have a first or second round pick in 2023, they even had to trade up just to get back into the third round. Most of those 2023 selections came in the later rounds.  Players like Popil, Bagley, Dikur, Gerrior and Rudolph are barely scratching the surface of their skill level.

Where LaForge and his scouts may have really done some of their best work was in the draft last spring.  Seattle has already signed eight players from that draft as well as their top pick in the 2024 U.S. Priority Draft. The top pick, Brock England, was recently named the MVP of the WHL Cup.  Look for Seattle, along with most of the WHL teams, to augment those players by signing players next summer who were avoiding the WHL to protect their NCAA eligibility. That is no longer a thing.

So, as far as the evaluation of this year's team at the one-third mark?  We knew scoring was going to be an issue and it has been. I thought they'd do a little better at keeping the puck out of their net but injuries, inconsistent goaltending and  inexperience are leading to too many goals against. The penalty kill is another victim of their youth. 

But the biggest issue has been the groups lack of playing time together.  They are young and most of the older players came from other organizations.  They are still looking for that chemistry. Those two cup winning teams had a sense of where their linemates or defensive partners were on the ice. That came from playing together for three and four years. That doesn't exist yet with this group.

There have been some bright spots among the inconsistency.  Cootes is an obvious one. I think Coster Dunn has been better than his stats would lead you to believe. You get a glimpse of why the organization believes rookie players like Riley, Gerrior and Rudolph have a chance to be big pieces of the puzzle in a few years but they're going to take their lumps this season, just as the rookies did a year ago. 

Don't get me wroing. The team is fighting for and believes they can make the playoffs. But it is also true every season the players are being evaluated.  The organization is looking to see who can separate themselves, looking for the cream to rise to the top, the wheat to fall away from the chaff. There are alot of young players on the roster and in the system. Thirteen players on this roster are age 17 or younger. It is their job to use this ice time to hasten their development. 

I've been encouraged the last two games and hopefully it carries over to the rest of the season. I know both games ended up in losses but the play was so much cleaner. They kept it simple.  They stayed disciplined without losing a core piece of their identity; physicality. There was more time in the offensive zone. The passing out of the d-zone and throught the neutral zone was better than it has been. There is still much to be worked on.They need to get better in all areas but these last two games seemed to me a step in that direction.