Tuesday, June 30, 2020

What Next?

As expected, the Thunderbirds made just one selection in the two round 2020 CHL Import Draft Tuesday. With Czech defenseman Simon Kubicek expected to return for a third season, the T-birds had just one import spot open on their roster. That spot was previously occupied by Slovak winger Andrej Kukuca, but he graduated out of the program.

So to fill the void Seattle once again turned to Slovakia, choosing Kukuca's countryman, 17 year old defenseman Samuel Knazko. The left-handed shot d-man, whose birthday is in early August, is entering his 18 year old season. Knazko was ranked in the top 45 among European skaters for the upcoming NHL Draft. This is the second time he's been selected in the Import Draft. A year ago he was chosen by the Vancouver Giants but decided to play in the Finnish Junior A league for TPS Turko.

In normal times, we'd sit back and wait until late August, when training camp normally gets underway, to get a first glimpse at the team's newest acquisition. But as you know by now, these are far from normal times. Because of the coronavirus pandemic the WHL has tentatively pushed back the start of the next season to early October. But even that start date is written down in pencil and not pen. We just don't know.

In fact, there are a lot of things we don't know. Will players be allowed to travel over from Europe? Will those players prefer to stay in their home country with the virus surging in North America? Will league's in Europe start up before the CHL, making it more favorable for those players to stay home? Lots of questions, very few answers. For more on that you can check out Andy Eide's conversation with Seattle General Manager Bil La Forge over at https://sports.mynorthwest.com/992544/chl-import-draft-nets-thunderbirds-slovak-defenseman-samuel-knazko/

But, let's just say that everything falls in to place. let's go on the premise that Knazko decides this time he'll come over to North America and play next season in the WHL as a Seattle Thunderbird. Let's just close our eyes and pretend everything is normal and we get a full 68 game season underway come October 2nd. What will the 2020-21 version of the Seattle Thunderbirds look like?

Last season the T-birds were one of the youngest team in the entire CHL, let alone the WHL. Guess what? They very well could still be one of the youngest teams again this upcoming season. The T-birds graduated out three 20 year olds from the 2019-20 roster in Kukuca, Max Patterson and captain Conner Bruggen-Cate. As the roster sits right now, they have only two 20 year old players to occupy the three allowed 20 year old spots for next season; defenseman Owen Williams and winger Kelti Jeri-Leon. Goalie Roddy Ross was in line to be a third 20 on the roster but Seattle traded him to Regina back in April, during the WHL Bantam Draft. They can always trade for a third 20 year old, or pick one up off waivers, but will they? Three is the maximum number of 20 year olds you can carry on the roster, but it is not a requirement.

As it sits right now, assuming Knazko comes over from Slovakia, the T-birds have 28 players who are eligible for full-time duty on the team's roster next season. Those are players age 16 and older who have signed a standard WHL player agreement. Seattle typically starts the season with 25 players but eventually the roster is trimmed down to about 23. The reason is some players are still at NHL training camps, so you keep a few extra players around to get through the opening couple of weeks. Your game day roster consists of 18 skaters and two goalies with three players scratched. So Seattle has to whittle down 28 to 23.

Typically a roster is made up of 14 forwards, seven defensemen and two goaltenders, 14+7+2=23. For Seattle the hard work will be determining who those final 23 will be because there is going to be some tough competition for the final three or four roster spots.

At the moment, when it comes to a position that is locked down, the only sure thing is in net. After the trade of Ross, Seattle is left with 18 year old Blake Lyda and 17 year old Thomas Milic as their goaltending tandem. The T-birds would not have traded Ross if they weren't confident in these two manning the crease. The question is who takes up the 14 forward and seven defensemen spots on the roster? Let's break it down by position and age group. These are the players we know are eligible to be here full-time next season.

Forward group:
20 year olds-Kelti Jeri-Leon.
19 year olds-Henrik Rybinski.
18 year olds-Payton Mount, Brendan Williamson, Jared Davidson and Matt Rempe.
17 year olds-Mekai Sanders, Kai Uchacz, Reid Schaefer, Conner Roulette, Sam Popowich and Lucas Ciona
16 year olds-Jordan Gustafson, Gabe Ludwig and Nico Myatovic

Defenseman Group:
20 year olds-Owen Williams
19 year olds-Simon Kubicek, Cade McNelly, Zach Ashton and Ryan Gottfried
18 year olds-Tyrel Bauer, Luke Bateman and possibly Samuel Knazko
17 year olds-Jeremy Hanzel
16 year olds-Kevin Korchinski and Spencer Penner

Not included in this list are any unsigned prospects currently on the team's protected list that may sign a standard WHL player agreement between now and the start of the season. I'm not saying that will happen, but it is always a possibility. It also doesn't include the potential addition of a third 20 year old either and you can't predict a trade. So there could conceivably be more then the 28 players listed above fighting for a roster spot.

I'm not going to play roster roulette here and tell you who I think will be on the team, although Conner Roulette will be on the team. Instead, I invite you, the reader, to use the list above and put together the roster you think will make the 23 man version of the 20-21 Thunderbirds. You've got three months (maybe more) and I've already started you off with the two goalies.

Just keep in mind you need four centers among your forward group and you need a good mix of left and right shots in both your wingers and defensemen. Then you have to figure how many rookies you are going to carry, especially 16 year old rookies. I know it would be easy just to eliminate the 16 year olds from the discussion but trust me, there will be 16 year old rookies on the opening night roster.

Will there be enough ice to get them all the required number of games? A season ago Seattle used six 16 year old forwards, three of them on a nightly basis. Now those six, 16 year olds are a year older and all six of them figure to be in the lineup nearly every night. A team typically dresses 12 forwards. So the T-birds newly turned 17 year olds will comprise one half of your game night forward group.

The list above shows 11 defensemen eligible to be full-time T-birds next season. Ten if Knazko doesn't report. Either way, we know ten or eleven defenseman on the roster is not going to happen. Only seven, maybe eight will make it. Even if you were to eliminate the two 16 year olds you are still left with eight or nine. Again though, I refer you to my statement above. there will be 16 year olds on this team. Paring down the defense to the requisite number might be the most difficult task.

The hard part for you as you try to put together the roster is you don't know which older player or players the coaches and GM value not just for their on ice ability but for the intangibles they bring to the team. Intangibles such as their leadership both on and off the ice do factor in to these decisions. Keep in mind too that some of these young players, while eligible to play at a lower level, are so important to the team's future that the organization sees more value in keeping them in Kent. The whole point of this exercise is for you to think like a WHL GM and weigh all the variables as you put your team together. The key phrase there is "WHL GM". Don't think like an NHL GM. At this level you have to factor in that you are in a league that focuses on player development.

Wear a mask when necessary and wash your hands! It will get us closer to hockey again!