Saturday, April 20, 2024

Begin the Climb

The Western Hockey League postseason is in full on mode, down to the final four teams. The most exciting time of the year, unless you are on the outside looking in. The Thunderbirds missed the 2024 playoffs and that was disappointing. It's difficult at the WHL level to stay at the top.  Every three years your roster basically gets turned over. A champion one season, in the cellar the next. You spend a few years developing a player and before you know it, he's off to the next level. 

It's just not easy to create that consistency of winning and fighting for a Cup every year. Winnipeg/Wematchee, who fell to Seattle in the 2023 Finals was one and done this playoff run, after winning back-to-back Scotty Munro trophies after posting the best regular season record in 2022 and 2023. Edmonton, the team that beat Seattle in the 2022 WHL Championship Series, has missed the postseason two years in a row.

The last two Cup winners pre pandemic? Prince Albert won it all in 2019. They are 2-8 in the postseason since, getting knocked out in the first round twice. The team they beat in the 2019 Final, Vancouver? 7-14 in the postseason with just one playoff series win, a first round upset of the Silvertips in 2022.

Swift Current took home the Ed Chynoweth Cup in 2018. After missing the playoffs three times, this spring was their first foray into postseason play since and they went 5-4 over two rounds before being eliminated. 

Everett was the team Swift Current beat in the spring of 2018. They've qualified for the postseason each year since, including earning the Scotty Munro Trophy in 2022, after compiling the best regular season record. Unfortunately they were upset by Vancouver in the opening round that spring. To their credit they have played in 29 playoff games since falling to the Broncos in that 2018 league final. But their record in those playoff games is 12-17 and they've only won one second round playoff game (1-8).

When the T-Birds won the 2017 WHL Championship, they defeated the Regina Pats.  Since that loss in the league final to Seattle, Regina is just 6-8 in the playoff and missed the postseason this spring.  Even with a generational players like Connor Bedard in their lineup last spring, they were eliminated in the first round. 

Teams like Portland, Kelowna and Saskatoon are perennial playoff clubs but haven't captured the big prize in over a decade, if at all. The pandemic years cost teams like the Winterhawks, Silvertips and even the Spokane Chiefs a shot at glory but only one team captures the Cup each year and had those two seasons played out if could have been someone else, such as Edmonton, Medicine Hat or Kamloops bringing home the chalice. 

Which brings us to the Thunderbirds. Yes, it was gut wrenching to see injuries pile up and most likely keep the team from the playoffs this spring but somewhere along the way in the life cycle of the WHL, you are bound to have a year such as the T-Birds just had. It's climbing up off the floor that will show the character of this organization. They've done it before, they can do it again.

Did you know that, since winning the Ed Chynoweth Cup in 2017, the Thunderbirds playoff record is 34-22 with another league title earned last spring?  Since enduring a three season playoff drought (2010, 2011, 2012), the Thunderbirds are 65-43 in the playoffs, claiming two league titles, four Western Conference Championships and a pair of U.S. Division Banners.

From a business side, a revenue stream side, you don't want to miss the playoffs. That's money in the bank, although a couple long playoff runs can make up for one missed postseason. But over the last decade only one other WHL team can come close to matching what the Thunderbirds have done.  

Is it Portland? They'd be in the mix but not quite. They last won a league title twelve years ago, in 2013, then lost the final to Edmonton in 2014. In the decade since, they have not missed the postseason. They entered this spring's WHL playoffs with a 32-38 playoff mark since that last trip to the championship series and are 8-0 through the first two rounds of these playoffs, as they head into the 2024 Western Conference Championship Series against Prince George. 

Kelowna? Since 2015 the Rockets have captured one Chynoweth Cup (2015) and gone 40-45 in postseason play after being eliminated in the second round this spring. They went to three straight Western Conference Championship series (2015,2016, 2017) but no trophies in the last ten seasons. 

No, the team that comes closest to what Seattle has done the last ten seasons would be the Edmonton Oil Kings. It's just outside the ten year window but eleven seasons ago they won the Chynoweth Cup then did it again in 2022. They can also claim the 2014 Memorial Cup. Since 2015 Seattle is 62-39 in the WHL postseason. Edmonton is 45-20. 

And guess what? Edmonton missed the playoffs in three of the last ten seasons, once after winning it all in 2014 and twice since winning it in 2022. So making the playoffs every season, while nice, it isn't kiss of death should you miss out. It's all about using the down season or two to build back up.Then, it's what you do once you're in the playoffs that matters and the T-Birds have made it matter the most.  

Now, they look to do it again.  They have some pieces already in place with players like Cootes, Lovsin, Pickford, Davidson and Martorana. Other players like Hartmann, Parmar and Mathies have shown promise. A few younger players are ready to show they belong.  

Now the upcoming WHL Draft becomes crucial.  Seattle has two picks in the top 23, including eleventh overall. They'll need to hit on those two high selections just as they have done with so many of their top picks over the last decade. They should make two picks in this summer's CHL Import Draft that will need to impact the roster.  What happens off the ice over the next couple of months is going to greatly impact what happens on the ice between 2025 and 2028.