The Thunderbirds have played seven home games thus far in 2022 and they have earned points in all of them, posting a 5-0-1-1 record. There is an argument to be made that they should be 7-0-0-0 in those games. They poured 51 shots on goal in a 4-3 overtime loss to Portland back on January 14th. Hey, sometimes you run into a hot goalie. Then on January 29th they built leads of 3-0, 4-3 and 5-4 against the Winterhawks only to lose, 6-5 in a shootout in yet another game where they rifled over 40 shots on goal (44).
Over those seven home games, the T-birds have scored 42 goals, or an average of six goals per game. Seattle has allowed 16 goals in that stretch, albeit five of those goals against came in one game. Still, that means they are surrendering, on average, just slightly over two goal a game (2.28). So, if you come see the T-birds play at home in 2022, you're more than likely to see them win 6-2.
On the season, the T-birds have scored 85 goals in 20 home games. That's 4.25 per home game and trending upwards. Prior to this last seven game stretch on home ice, Seattle had played 13 games at the accesso ShoWare Center and scored 43 times for an average of 3.3. So again, first 13 games at home 3.3 goals per game, next seven home games 6.0 goals per game, season home average 4.25.
How do we account for the bump in home goals? It would be simple to say it's the addition of Lukas Svejkovsky to the lineup and all the players being available and off the Covid list or even, well, the T-birds are playing lots of home games against subpar opposition. Those are factors but not the whole story. In his eight games as a Thunderbird, Svejkovsky has played five of them at the accesso ShoWare Center. In those five home games he has nine points (3g, 6a) but his three goals all came in the two games this past weekend. His first three home games he had just three assists.
This past weekend Seattle did get four players off the Covid list and that certainly gave them a nearly complete roster to utilize in their two wins in which they scored 14 times. But the two home games prior to that, Seattle played with a short roster, dressing just 16 skaters, were absent three of their top six defensemen and scored 12 goals in those two games.
So, it must be the schedule and the T-birds are racking up big goal totals against inferior competition. Sure, four of the T-birds five wins are against teams with losing records in Spokane (twice) Prince George and Vancouver accounting for 29 of those 42 goals. But in three games against Portland (x2) and Everett the T-birds still managed to score 13 goals and were 1-0-1-1. Remember, they played one of those games against Portland with just 16 skaters and still managed to pot five goals.
So, in the four games against the three teams with below .500 records they averaged 7.25 goals per game. In the three games against two teams with two of the best winning percentages in the WHL, Seattle averaged 4.3 goals per game, while not playing at full strength.
What I see as the biggest reasons for the increase in goals at home is not in any statistics you can point to on a scoresheet. Nope, It's confidence. It's chemistry. It's maturity. Young second year players like Jordan Gustafson and Reid Schaefer are realizing their potential. In his 23-game rookie campaign last spring, Schaefer scored ZERO goals in the 18-games he played in. This season he has 19 goals in 39-games.
Meanwhile a third-year player such as Lucas Ciona is understanding and realizing his role and how he can be most effective. As a result, he has eight goals in his last eight games. Four of those have come on the power play. All eight have probably been scored from within a 10-foot radius of the net, as he learns to use his physicality.
The T-birds have also found chemistry in their forward lines. They can roll four lines nightly when healthy. They have a Top line of Schaefer-Rybinski and Davidson. Combined that trio has 127 points (54g, 72a). Their second line is the Speed line; Roulette-Gustafson-Svejkovsky. That threesome has a combined 124-points (48g, 76a).
Their third line is their Brute line consisting of Ciona-Rempe-Sanders. Together they have 58-points (33g, 25a). The fourth line is their Grit line, featuring a little bit of everything with Oremba/Ludwig/Popowich/Myatovic (13g, 24a, 37 points).
When they have their entire D-corps healthy and available, the Thunderbirds top six would be Bauer, Gottfried, Knazko, Korchinski and Lacombe and a rotation of Mynio and Okonkwo Prada. The reality is, Seattle has not had that top six together for any game this season. The closest they came was December 10th in Kamloops. At the time they still had Eric Van Impe. They hadn't yet made the deal to send him to Swift Current for Lacombe because they hadn't made the trade for Svejkovsky yet.
The Thunderbirds won that game, 6-1, but that was also the game Bauer suffered his long-term, lower body injury. Under their current roster iteration, the closest they've come to having their top six d-men available was a three-game stretch between Jan 15th and January 22nd. that's it. Otherwise, it has been a bit of a patchwork back end, sometimes dressing just five defensemen, often with a younger player called up such as Ethan Mittlesteadt or Niko Tskaumis. Most often they've only had three of their top six defenseman available.
They will get Knazko back after the Olympics. They hope Bauer can make it back late in the regular season or at some point in the playoffs, but that is no guarantee. I think Seattle looked at acquiring another defenseman at the trade deadline but the asking prices this year were through the roof. They didn't overspend for a short-term rental. they looked at their group and said, you know what? They are more than good enough to carry the load.
Coaches are never going to be 100-percent satisfied, especially at the development level. Nor should they be when they are looking to teach these wanna-be pros how to be professionals. T-birds head coach Matt O'Dette wasn't satisfied with how his players reacted to having big, comfortable leads on the weekend.
They went off script and got away from their structure. "The way we got our lead, the way we got our goals, was by playing the right way and playing with good habits. When we stopped doing that, the other team took it to us," he said. "You can't do that. We're trying to engrain our habits so they're there every single night, every single shift. Bottom line we're looking for sixty minutes. The past two nights there have been lots of good habits, but definitely room for improvement." Teachable moments.
My T-birds Three Stars for the Two Game Weekend (T-birds 2-0, Covid 1-0):
Third Star: W Lucas Ciona. There always seems to be a point in a players WHL career when everything comes together and perfectly aligns. That moment seems now for Ciona, the 2021 sixth round pick of the NHL's Calgary Flames is, well, flaming hot. He's playing physical hockey, his best attribute, without going over the line. He has learned to use his net front presence, especially on the power play. He had three goals on the weekend and now has eight in his last eight games.
Second Star: C Henrik Rybinski. As always, he's the catalyst for this team. His non-stop motor sets the tone for the rest of the team. After picking up an assist in each game, he's riding a six-game point streak (5g, 7a). He's also tops among Seattle's forward group with a +26 rating. He's a big reason why the T-birds are third in the league on the penalty kill and one of only half a dozen WHL teams who have both special teams in the top ten.
First Star: W Lukas Svejkovsky. After a tough battle to get back to 100-perecnt following a bout with Covid, the Pittsburgh Penguins 2020 fourth round pick says he feels normal again. This weekend he gave us a glimpse of what his normal is as he finished with six points (3g, 3a) and was +5. He showed us his hockey toolbox with speed, quickness, good hands and a deft scoring touch. With 12 points in eight games as a T-birds, maybe we should change the name of his hometown to Point-a-Game-Roberts, Washington.
No comments:
Post a Comment